A 10% increase in the origin wage is associated with a 3.5% decline in migration, while a 10% increase in the destination wage is associated with a 7.8% increase in migration. For housing, a 10% increase in origin home prices is associated with a 1.4% increase in migration, but a 10% increase in destination home prices is associated with a 2.6% decline in migration. These analyses show that wages on their own would have led to an increase in migration rates, primarily because migrants are increasingly responsive to high earnings levels in potential destination communing zones (CZs). However, these wage effects have been more than offset by housing-related factors, which have increasingly impeded internal mobility. In particular, migration has become much less responsive to housing prices in the origin CZ, such that many households that would have left in response to high home prices several decades ago now choose to stay.
- Date Posted:
- February 2, 2024
Federal debt held by the public reached a low point as a percentage of GDP reached a low point of 21.9% in the third quarter of 1974. Debt-to-GDP reached a peak of 103.2% in the middle of the COVID plague in mid-2020. It stood at 94.0% at the start of Biden’s first budget-year. And it stands at 95.4% today. If the United States can roughly match government program spending to taxes in the future while it rolls over its debt as it matures and borrows more money to pay the interest, the debt is highly likely to gradually diminish, and eventually fade away. Such a policy is a “deficit gamble”, but it is one on very favorable terms. That is if the United States matches program spending to taxes: and attains an average level of zero for what economists call the primary deficit. That does not mean a balanced budget. It means borrowing more only to pay the interest owed on what had been borrowed before. It means a current-cash deficit of around 3% of GDP—of approximately $800 billion a year.