HIGHLIGHTS
Ed Conard Debates Furman On “The Expected Value of Risk Taking” Over the summer, I debated Jason Furman—Pres. Obama’s former Chair of the Counsel of Economic Advisors—at Harvard over the magnitude of changes needed to bring America’s fiscal policy back into equilibrium. I noted that ongoing federal spending has risen from 19% of GDP prior to the financial crisis to 21% afterwards, and to nearly 24% since the pandemic, while taxes fluctuated around 17% of GDP—their 50-year average. This occurred in the face of publicly held federal debt rising from 35% to 100% of GDP. I argue that both the costs… Read More
My Wall Street Journal Op-Ed: Without Spending Cuts, Brace for Slow Growth Trade deficits and the mistaken belief that they chiefly fund business investment have led to a debt-fueled increase in American consumption. This surging consumption contributed to the 2008 financial crisis and unsustainable federal deficit spending while doing little to boost domestic production. If the demand for business investment primarily drove trade deficits, real interest rates and trade deficits would rise with the demand for domestic business investment. But since 2000, real interest rates have tended to fall as trade deficits expand—at least until recently. Business investment hasn’t been correlated with… Read More
My Wall Street Journal Letter To The Editor: Risk-Averse Offshore Savings Proffered At Near-Zero Interest Rates Didn’t Fund Increased Business Investment In their Feb. 21 op-ed “Trump’s Myth of the Trade Deficit,” Phil Gramm and Donald Boudreaux correctly note that when American demand for investment exceeds domestic savings, trade deficits create American jobs by funding otherwise unfunded domestic investment with offshore savings. But that hasn’t been the case for decades. Risk-averse offshore savings proffered at near-zero interest rates didn’t fund increased business investment. They funded a one-time increase in subprime consumption before the financial crisis and an enormous deficit-financed increase in handouts after the financial crisis. We borrowed and gave away… Read More
My Wall Street Journal Op-Ed: Why the U.S. Economy Is Trouncing Europe’s Economists never cite one of the most significant statistics about the U.S. economy. According to data released last week by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, only about 12% of Americans score at the highest levels on internationally administered academic tests, while 34% score at the lowest levels—nearly three low scorers for every high scorer. Germany’s figures are nearly even: 18% score at the highest levels and 20% at the lowest. Put another way, Germany’s ratio of high to low scorers is almost three times America’s. Scandinavia’s is five… Read More
My Wall Street Journal Op-Ed: You Are Right to Worry About the Economy Regarding “Why Americans Are Down on a Strong Economy” (Page One, Feb. 8): America is on what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell calls “an unsustainable fiscal path.” Well into the business cycle, we are pumping fiscal stimulus equal to an unprecedented 6% of GDP and a quarter of all government spending into the economy, with no end in sight. Federal debt has risen from 70% of GDP after the financial crisis to nearly 100% today, following $5 trillion of pandemic spending to close what was likely a $1 trillion shortfall.… Read More
Read Former White House CEA Chairman Kevin Hassett’s Interview of Ed Conard in National Review In National Review, Kevin Hassett, the former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, asks Ed Conard to defend conservative free market capitalism and how it promotes entrepreneurial risk-taking that has grown middle-class incomes faster than Europe. Five Questions for Ed Conard National Review Online August 21, 2020 1) Many liberals claim capitalism no longer works for the middle and working class. Is it true? No. According to the Congressional Budget Office, prior to the pandemic, middle-class incomes had grown 60 percent more than inflation since 1980. The income of the poorest… Read More
My Oxford University Press Chapter, “The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies,” Is Available Free Online Oxford University Press has provided free online access to my chapter, “The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies,” for a limited time in their new book “United States Income, Wealth, Consumption, and Inequality.” In the chapter, I argue, “Inequality is mostly the result of an increasing premium on returns from risk and high-skilled labor ushered in by technological disruption and the feedback loop of elite talent working to increase their own productivity—a logical outcome when properly trained talent constrains growth. The answer … lies in increasing the ratio of high-… Read More
Ed Conard Discusses His Oxford University Chapter at Harvard’s Program on Constitutional Government Ed Conard recently joined Harvard’s Harvey Mansfield to discuss his Oxford University Press chapter, “The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies,” at Harvard University’s Program on Constitutional Government. The video, audio, and text of his speech and the Q&A session are available below. Opening Speech AUDIO Q&A PART 1 AUDIO Q&A PART 2 AUDIO 14 Questions for Ed Conard Tom Palmer (Snr. Fellow, Cato Institute): Do we have the ability to recruit high-skilled labor from around the world? Can we identify and… Read More
Debating a Book’s-Worth of Economic Issues on “Conversations with Bill Kristol” I cover a book’s-worth of economic issues in my 90 minute discussion with Bill Kristol on “Conversations with Bill Kristol.” Read More
Harvard Symposium on My Views: “What Advocates of Free Enterprise Can Learn from Populism.” Watch my Harvard symposium presentation “What Advocates of Free Enterprise Can Learn from Populism.” The symposium was hosted by Professor Harvey Mansfield and Harvard’s Program on Constitutional Government. Harvard Economics Professor Greg Mankiw participated in the discussion. Discussion Q&A Read More
My National Review Op-Ed explains why CBO expects the tax cut to pay for itself Is the tax cut expected to pay for itself? Yes — if we use the Congressional Budget Office’s forecast and any economically logical standard, the tax cut makes both current and future generations better off. The CBO now expects the nominal gross domestic product to increase nearly $750 billion more per year by 2020 than in its forecast prior to the tax cut. It originally attributed about one third of that growth to the tax-cut legislation — even by that estimate, the cut more than pays for itself. The CBO… Read More
My Wall Street Journal Op-Ed: “The Crippling Cost of 70% Tax Rates” The Crippling Cost of 70% Tax Rates Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s proposal would smother investment and innovation, leaving America poorer. Newly elected Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez spent her first few weeks on Capitol Hill calling for a 70% top marginal income-tax rate, and suddenly the debate over optimal rates has reopened. To support her charge, some liberals are citing a 2011 study by economists Peter Diamond and Emmanuel Saez, which advocates for confiscatory upper-range tax rates. But a quick look at their analysis reveals grave caveats that only an advocate of higher taxes could possibly… Read More
Debating Inequality, Innovation, and High-Skilled Immigration on “Conversations with Bill Kristol” Bill Kristol and I debate income inequality, innovation, and why only high-skilled immigration can grow the American economy fast enough to pay for retiring baby boomers without damaging the economy with high taxes and slower growth. Watch here on "Conversations with Bill Kristol." Read More
My Wall Street Journal Op-Ed: America’s Got Talent, but Not Nearly Enough In today's Wall Street Journal, I argue that high-skilled immigration is the only way America can meet the growing cost of retiring baby boomers without growth-killing tax increases that jeopardize America’s future in an increasingly dangerous world. Read the op-ed here and below. America’s Got Talent, but Not Nearly Enough Trump is right to back skills-based immigration. But fewer green cards would defeat the purpose. President Trump has proposed cutting the number of green cards issued each year from one million to 500,000 and issuing them based on skill levels. This approach… Read More
I Debate Austan Goolsbee on CNN: Does Trump Deserve Credit For Rising Stock Market? Ed Conard debates Austan Goolsbee, former chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, on whether President Trump has contributed to the rising stock market with Michael Smerconish on CNN's "Smerconish." Read More
All Articles
- Ed Conard Debates Furman On “The Expected Value of Risk Taking” Over the summer, I debated Jason Furman—Pres. Obama’s former Chair of the Counsel of Economic Advisors—at Harvard over the magnitude of changes needed to bring America’s fiscal policy back into equilibrium. I noted that ongoing federal spending has risen from 19% of GDP prior to the financial crisis to 21% afterwards, and to nearly 24% since the pandemic, while taxes fluctuated around 17% of GDP—their 50-year average. This occurred in the face of publicly held federal debt rising from 35% to 100% of GDP. I argue that both the costs… Read More
- My Wall Street Journal Op-Ed: Without Spending Cuts, Brace for Slow Growth Trade deficits and the mistaken belief that they chiefly fund business investment have led to a debt-fueled increase in American consumption. This surging consumption contributed to the 2008 financial crisis and unsustainable federal deficit spending while doing little to boost domestic production. If the demand for business investment primarily drove trade deficits, real interest rates and trade deficits would rise with the demand for domestic business investment. But since 2000, real interest rates have tended to fall as trade deficits expand—at least until recently. Business investment hasn’t been correlated with… Read More
- My Wall Street Journal Letter To The Editor: Risk-Averse Offshore Savings Proffered At Near-Zero Interest Rates Didn’t Fund Increased Business Investment In their Feb. 21 op-ed “Trump’s Myth of the Trade Deficit,” Phil Gramm and Donald Boudreaux correctly note that when American demand for investment exceeds domestic savings, trade deficits create American jobs by funding otherwise unfunded domestic investment with offshore savings. But that hasn’t been the case for decades. Risk-averse offshore savings proffered at near-zero interest rates didn’t fund increased business investment. They funded a one-time increase in subprime consumption before the financial crisis and an enormous deficit-financed increase in handouts after the financial crisis. We borrowed and gave away… Read More
- My Wall Street Journal Op-Ed: Why the U.S. Economy Is Trouncing Europe’s Economists never cite one of the most significant statistics about the U.S. economy. According to data released last week by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, only about 12% of Americans score at the highest levels on internationally administered academic tests, while 34% score at the lowest levels—nearly three low scorers for every high scorer. Germany’s figures are nearly even: 18% score at the highest levels and 20% at the lowest. Put another way, Germany’s ratio of high to low scorers is almost three times America’s. Scandinavia’s is five… Read More
- My Wall Street Journal Op-Ed: You Are Right to Worry About the Economy Regarding “Why Americans Are Down on a Strong Economy” (Page One, Feb. 8): America is on what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell calls “an unsustainable fiscal path.” Well into the business cycle, we are pumping fiscal stimulus equal to an unprecedented 6% of GDP and a quarter of all government spending into the economy, with no end in sight. Federal debt has risen from 70% of GDP after the financial crisis to nearly 100% today, following $5 trillion of pandemic spending to close what was likely a $1 trillion shortfall.… Read More
Ed Conard’s Publications Edward Conard has published two top-ten New York Times bestsellers, The Upside of Inequality: How Good Intentions Undermine the Middle Class and Unintended Consequences: Why Everything You’ve Been Told about the Economy is Wrong. Most recently he contributed a chapter, “The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies” to Oxford University Press’ United States Income, Wealth, Consumption, and Inequality. The books have received a variety of positive reviews from noteworthy economists including the former president of Harvard University and economist Larry Summers, a very tough critic on the other side of the aisle, who blurbed: “I… Read More
Ed Conard’s Media Appearances Conard has made over 200 media appearances and has debated top economists and journalists including Nobel Prize-winning economists Paul Krugman, Joe Stiglitz, and Ken Arrow, former CEA chairs Austen Goolsbee, Greg Mankiw, and Kevin Hasset, and a variety of journalists, including Fareed Zakaria, Andrew Ross Sorkin, and Jon Stewart. He has also won two IQ2 debates by defeating the motions “Income Inequality Impairs the American Dream of Upward Mobility” and “Central Banks Can Print Prosperity,” by audience vote. Conard is currently publishing a daily summary of noteworthy economic news. Read More
About Macro Roundup® My research staff searches academic papers, blogs, and the media for facts, opinions, and arguments I might find useful, but otherwise may not have seen. As such, their summary is intended to supplement the news, not rehash it. From their review they produce a daily and weekly summary as well as a searchable database of past entries. As a public service, I make their work freely available to anyone who might have an interest—e.g. economists, policymakers, investors, content producers, and anyone looking for macro perspectives. The Macro Roundup® is available… Read More- Read Former White House CEA Chairman Kevin Hassett’s Interview of Ed Conard in National Review In National Review, Kevin Hassett, the former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, asks Ed Conard to defend conservative free market capitalism and how it promotes entrepreneurial risk-taking that has grown middle-class incomes faster than Europe. Five Questions for Ed Conard National Review Online August 21, 2020 1) Many liberals claim capitalism no longer works for the middle and working class. Is it true? No. According to the Congressional Budget Office, prior to the pandemic, middle-class incomes had grown 60 percent more than inflation since 1980. The income of the poorest… Read More
- My Oxford University Press Chapter, “The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies,” Is Available Free Online Oxford University Press has provided free online access to my chapter, “The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies,” for a limited time in their new book “United States Income, Wealth, Consumption, and Inequality.” In the chapter, I argue, “Inequality is mostly the result of an increasing premium on returns from risk and high-skilled labor ushered in by technological disruption and the feedback loop of elite talent working to increase their own productivity—a logical outcome when properly trained talent constrains growth. The answer … lies in increasing the ratio of high-… Read More
Ed Conard Debates Poverty and Inequality at Susquehanna University Ed Conard debunks myths about poverty and debates the ways U.S. policymakers can maximize middle and working- class incomes with Washington University in St. Louis's Professor of Social Welfare Mark Rank. The discussion was moderated by Matt Rousu, Dean of Susquehanna University’s Sigmund Weis School of Business and students. Read More- Ed Conard Discusses His Oxford University Chapter at Harvard’s Program on Constitutional Government Ed Conard recently joined Harvard’s Harvey Mansfield to discuss his Oxford University Press chapter, “The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies,” at Harvard University’s Program on Constitutional Government. The video, audio, and text of his speech and the Q&A session are available below. Opening Speech AUDIO Q&A PART 1 AUDIO Q&A PART 2 AUDIO 14 Questions for Ed Conard Tom Palmer (Snr. Fellow, Cato Institute): Do we have the ability to recruit high-skilled labor from around the world? Can we identify and… Read More
Ed Conard Debates the Economics of Inequality on Bill Martinez Live Ed Conard joins Bill Martinez to discuss his Oxford University Press chapter, “The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies.” Read More
Praise for my Oxford University Press chapter, “The Economics of Inequality” San Antonio Express columnist Michael Taylor praised my chapter, “The Economics of Inequality,” in Oxford University Press’ new “United States Income, Wealth, Consumption, and Inequality.” "In Chapter 10, Edward Conard makes the case for what I think of as the Mitt Romney — or previously orthodox Republican — view of economic policy. If we are unequal, Conard asks, what explains it? Is it unfair crony capitalism? Or is it from innovation and gains to productivity? Conard firmly believes it’s the latter. Conard argues it would be reckless to attack or… Read More
My chapter, “The Economics of Inequality,” joins Saez, Burkhauser, and other distinguished economists in Oxford University Press’ new “United States Income, Wealth, Consumption, and Inequality” In my chapter, “Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies," I argue, “Inequality is mostly the result of an increasing premium on returns from risk and high-skilled labor ushered in by technological disruption and the feedback loop of elite talent working to increase their own productivity—a logical outcome when properly trained talent constrains growth. The answer … lies in increasing the ratio of high- to low-skilled workers chiefly by training and recruiting more high-scoring domestic and immigrant workers. Rather than greater income redistribution slowing growth by dampening high-skilled productivity and incentives… Read More