People have been moving to the South over a long period, with the pace accelerating during the pandemic. In recent internal data, covering 2023 Q3, we see a continued strong inflow into southern Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), such as Austin, San Antonio, Jacksonville, and Tampa. And, on top of the migration story the South has a higher birth rate than other census regions, too. But GDP growth across the South has not been even. Between 2017 and 2022, seven southern states had a larger increase than the average US rise of 11%. Of these, Florida showed the biggest jump in GDP, by 20%, followed by Texas and Tennessee, growing by 15%. However, over the same period, nine others and D.C. expanded more slowly, with Oklahoma and Louisiana showing negative growth.
- Date Posted:
- December 6, 2023
Two different official time series from the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) [show the same dynamic]. There are multiple differences between the two series, but the main one is that SAFE measures FDI on a net basis, i.e., FDI inflows minus FDI outflows, while MOFCOM only measures gross FDI inflows. Both agencies include greenfield investment and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) by foreign firms in their FDI data while SAFE also includes several other items. While these additional items were large a few years ago, as explained below, they are now likely quite small. Most of the $113 billion difference between the two numbers in the first three quarters of 2023 must result from the net sale of direct investment assets by foreign investors.