“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers

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Roger Pielke Jr. The Honest Broker

Date Posted:: October 31, 2024
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

.@RogerPielkeJr argues that more realistic projections of global population and GDP growth suggest that “even partial future policy successes could more easily bring into view future emissions consistent with a 2C temperature target.”

Updated understandings of population and GDP suggest that, at a minimum, the “assumption space” used to generate scenarios needs to reorient away from extreme socio-economic assumptions and towards more realistic socio-economic scenarios consistent with observations of the real world. Every time global population GDP projections are revised down, the challenge of climate change appears that much more tractable. Of course, peak population and slower economic growth bring with them considerable societal and policy challenges of their own. “Current policy” projections are based on a very conservative set of assumptions — who thinks there will be no new climate and energy policies? — and many countries have committed to accelerating decarbonization. Conditional on slower-than-projected population and/or GDP growth, that means that even partial future policy successes could more easily bring into view future emissions consistent with a 2C temperature target. Basing our expectations on the latest understandings of population and GDP changes is thus essential for a clear-eyed view of climate and energy challenges.

Three Tough Truths About Climate

Bill Gates GatesNotes

Date Posted:: October 28, 2025
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

Noting that over the past decade global CO2 emissions projected by the IEA have fallen by more than 40%, Bill Gates argues innovation will likely “give us the tools we need to meet the growing demand for energy without increasing carbon emissions.”

Ten years ago, the International Energy Agency predicted that by 2040, the world would be emitting 50 billion tons of carbon dioxide every year. Now, just a decade later, the IEA’s forecast has dropped to 30 billion, and it’s projecting that 2050 emissions will be even lower. Even if the world takes only moderate action to curb climate change, the current consensus is that by 2100 the Earth’s average temperature will probably be between 2°C and 3°C higher than it was in 1850. That’s well above the 1.5°C goal that countries committed to at the Paris COP in 2015. In fact, between now and 2040, we are going to fall far short of the world’s climate goals. One reason is that the world’s demand for energy is going up—more than doubling by 2050. Although wind and solar have gotten cheaper and better, we don’t yet have all the tools we need to meet the growing demand for energy without increasing carbon emissions. But we will have the tools we need if we focus on innovation. With the right investments and policies in place, over the next ten years we will have new affordable zero-carbon technologies ready to roll out at scale. Add in the impact of the tools we already have, and by the middle of this century emissions will be lower and the gap between poor countries and rich countries will be greatly reduced.

World’s Oceans Remain Near Record Temperatures as CO2 Levels Rise

Attracta Mooney and Steven Bernard Financial Times

Date Posted:: June 12, 2025
Is Database:: Database

The world’s ocean temperatures reached the second-highest level on record for May, capping an “alarming” two-year streak of rapid warming. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 hit their highest seasonal peak since records began, a global mean of 426 ppm.

The world’s ocean temperatures reached the second-highest level on record for May, capping an “alarming” two-year streak of rapid warming and fueling concerns about the seas’ ability to absorb rising levels of carbon dioxide. The EU’s Earth observation service Copernicus said the global average sea surface temperature in May was 20.79C, 0.14C below the record in the same month in 2024. The level of CO₂ in the atmosphere peaked globally at the mean of 426 parts per million in March, up from 423 ppm a year ago, and surpassed 430 ppm at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. Scientists estimate the ocean has absorbed between a quarter and about 30% of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere and about 90% of excess heat, helping to keep temperatures on land cooler. But Michael Meredith, a scientist at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, warned the ocean “may lose some of its capacity to buffer us against the worst extremes of climate change” by absorbing less warmth or carbon than previously. “We’re seeing stronger and stronger bursts of ocean warming — marine heatwaves — that are pushing us past records at an alarming rate.”

China’s Soaring Emissions Are Upending Climate Politics

Brad Plumer and Mira Rojanasakul New York Times

Date Posted:: November 19, 2024
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

China’s cumulative carbon emissions since 1850 have outpaced Europe’s but are still 60% of the US’s level. China has been the world’s #1 carbon emitter since 2006.

The United States has burned more fossil fuels than anywhere else in history. Europe has long ranked No. 2 in total historical greenhouse gas emissions. Until now. And projections show that China may nearly catch up with the United States. Data for carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions from 1850 to 2023 is from Jones et al (2024); data for 2024 from Carbon Brief; projected data for 2025 to 2100 is based on the International Energy Agency’s “stated policies scenario” tracking nations’ climate actions. European Union totals were calculated for the current 27 member countries. Lines show cumulative territorial CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, cement, land use, land use change and forestry.

The Energy Transition Will Be Much Cheaper Than You Think

Economist Staff The Economist

Date Posted:: November 15, 2024
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

Limiting global warming to the 2° target might be more affordable than projected due to slower economic growth and the ongoing decline in the cost of solar power, wind power, and lithium batteries as production volumes increase.

Economic modellers also have a poor record of predicting technological advances. They overestimate the take-up of some technologies (such as carbon capture and storage, whereby carbon dioxide is sucked out of the smokestacks of power stations and factories and stashed away safely underground) and severely underestimate the falling costs of others, most notably solar panels and lithium batteries. Rupert Way of the University of Cambridge and others have modelled an energy system in which the cost of solar power, wind power, lithium batteries and hydrogen electrolysers falls according to “Wright’s law”. This holds that every doubling of production sees unit costs fall by a fixed percentage, with that percentage derived from past experience. In this scenario emissions fall so rapidly that even the 1.5°C target can be met at minimal cost.

The Dangerous Effects Of Rising Sea Temperatures

Attracta Mooney, Steven Bernard and Jana Tauschinski Financial Times

Date Posted:: July 24, 2024
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

Oceans have absorbed 90% of the heat from human-caused carbon dioxide emitted during the industrial era, but some scientists are concerned that oceans may be reaching their limits in protecting the planet against the worst extremes of climate change.

Scientists are now trying to understand what has driven the rapid anomalous rise in sea temperatures, why that heat has lingered and whether the world’s seas will cool again. At the heart of these questions is a concern that the oceans may be reaching their limits in the vital role they play in protecting the planet against the worst extremes of climate change. They have absorbed 90% of excess heat and about a quarter of human-caused carbon dioxide emitted during the industrial era. “All that heat that’s going into the ocean is not going into the land surface or into the atmosphere, or into the ice caps,” says Michael Meredith, oceanographer and science leader at the British Antarctic Survey. “The ocean has been doing this huge climate favour for us for decades.” But he adds there is no guarantee it will continue doing so at the same rate. “If this does slow in future, the consequences will be like we saw in 2023 [the hottest year on record] but much more so.”

Abrupt Reduction In Shipping Emission As An Inadvertent Geoengineering Termination Shock Produces Substantial Radiative Warming

Tianle Yuan, Hua Song, Lazaros Oreopoulos, et al. Nature

Date Posted:: July 24, 2024
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

A 2020 mandate that reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% likely doubled the rate of global warming by reducing the amount of light being reflected back into space.

In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of Wm−2 averaged over the global ocean. The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020s anomalously warm. The forcing is equivalent in magnitude to 80% of the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020. The radiative forcing also has strong hemispheric contrast, which has important implications for precipitation pattern changes.

.@RogerPielkeJr argues that more realistic projections of global population and GDP growth suggest that “even partial future policy successes could more easily bring into view future emissions consistent with a 2C temperature target.”

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Noting that over the past decade global CO2 emissions projected by the IEA have fallen by more than 40%, Bill Gates argues innovation will likely “give us the tools we need to meet the growing demand for energy without increasing carbon emissions.”

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The world’s ocean temperatures reached the second-highest level on record for May, capping an “alarming” two-year streak of rapid warming. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 hit their highest seasonal peak since records began, a global mean of 426 ppm.

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China’s cumulative carbon emissions since 1850 have outpaced Europe’s but are still 60% of the US’s level. China has been the world’s #1 carbon emitter since 2006.

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Limiting global warming to the 2° target might be more affordable than projected due to slower economic growth and the ongoing decline in the cost of solar power, wind power, and lithium batteries as production volumes increase.

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Oceans have absorbed 90% of the heat from human-caused carbon dioxide emitted during the industrial era, but some scientists are concerned that oceans may be reaching their limits in protecting the planet against the worst extremes of climate change.

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A 2020 mandate that reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% likely doubled the rate of global warming by reducing the amount of light being reflected back into space.

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