Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Housing costs in the Miami metro area are now ~5% higher than in the New York metro area, while Miami household incomes remain below the national median, making the city's cost-of-living advantage over New York effectively gone.

Ben Steverman and Paulina Cachero Bloomberg
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South Florida’s consumer price index is up 36% relative to 2019, leaving Miami’s cost of living above that of New York. Wages have not kept pace; Miami metro area’s typical household income is ~ $1,000 less than the national median.

Is Miami still affordable compared to New York?

Core argument: Total housing costs in the Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Palm Beach metro now run ~5% above the New York metro area, erasing Miami's long-standing affordability advantage over its northeastern rival.

The total cost of housing in the Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach metropolitan area is about 5% higher than in New York and its suburbs, which includes New Jersey, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Southern Connecticut, where many hedge funds are located, is also now cheaper than Miami. Salaries largely aren’t keeping pace with costs. The Miami metro area’s typical household income is about $1,000 less than the national median, according to the latest US Census Bureau estimates. Even professionals make less in Miami than they do in New York City. The average lawyer in the New York City area earned about $51,000 more last year than one in Miami, BLS data show.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Total housing costs in the Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Palm Beach metro now run ~5% above the New York metro area, erasing Miami's long-standing affordability advantage over its northeastern rival.
  2. Miami metro household income sits ~$1,000 below the national median, meaning rising costs are compressing living standards as salaries fail to keep pace with the region's price level.
  3. Even high-earning professionals face a steeper income penalty in Miami than in New York: the average Miami-area lawyer earns $51,000 less annually than a counterpart in the New York City area.

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AI Summary. Miami-Dade County is attracting high-income migrants whose average income ($178,000) is more than 2x that of residents who leave, driving a 94% surge in the local millionaire population between 2014 and 2024.

Arian Campo-Flores The Wall Street Journal
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Miami illustrates wealth-driven bifurcation: new arrivals report ~$178K average AGI, among the highest in the US, even as the metro leads major cities in net out-migration. Luxury spending and tax revenue are rising; the middle class is being priced out.

Does wealth migration reshape cities by replacing lower-income residents?

Core argument: Miami's millionaire population surged 94% to 38,800 between 2014–2024, the second-largest increase among U.S. cities, driven by high-income migration from.

People moving to Miami-Dade County from other states had on average $178,000 in adjusted gross income, more than double that of people who left the county for other states, according to an analysis of 2022-23 Internal Revenue Service data by Maria Ilcheva, associate director of the Jorge M. Pérez Metropolitan Center at Florida International University. Those coming from Manhattan earned on average $358,000, and those from Chicago earned on average $711,000. The number of millionaires in Miami soared 94% to 38,800 between 2014 and 2024, according to Henley & Partners, a residence and citizenship planning firm. That was the second-largest percentage increase among the U.S. cities it studied, behind the San Francisco Bay Area.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Miami's millionaire population surged 94% to 38,800 between 2014–2024, the second-largest increase among U.S. cities, driven by high-income migration from.
  2. Inbound migrants to Miami-Dade earned $178,000 on average, 2.2x the income of outbound residents, resulting in net wealth concentration despite.
  3. Arrivals from Chicago averaged $711,000 in income, 4x higher than the typical inbound migrant, demonstrating selective relocation of ultra-high earners.

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AI Summary. The Midwest's brain drain is intensifying, with the income gap between those leaving and those arriving tripling from $5.6K to $15.6K (in real terms), while college-educated adults now make up 57% of out-migrants, up from 40% two decades ago.

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics
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The “Brain Drain” is ongoing in the Midwest. The fraction of adult out-migrants with at least a bachelor’s degree is now 57%, up from ~40% in 2005. “It’s the most educated and highest-earning that are still leaving in droves.”

What factors are driving the Midwest's accelerating brain drain?

Core argument: Illinois high-earner out-migration surged +54K annually (2014–15 to 2023–24) while low-earner departures fell -104K, driving regional brain drain toward higher-income.

Take Illinois, the most populous Midwestern state: my analysis of Census Bureau microdata shows that between 2014–15 and 2023–24, annual out-migration by households earning under $50K fell by 104K. Out-migration by Illinois households earning over $200K rose by 54K over the same period. Across the region, the trend along educational lines is the same: the bachelor’s-or-higher share of adult out-migrants is now 57%, up from around 40% in 2005. It’s the most educated and highest-earning that are still leaving in droves.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Illinois high-earner out-migration surged +54K annually (2014–15 to 2023–24) while low-earner departures fell -104K, driving regional brain drain toward higher-income.
  2. The Midwest’s leaver premium nearly tripled from $5.6K to $15.6K (2005–07 to 2022–24), indicating departing households earn substantially more than.
  3. Bachelor’s-or-higher share of out-migrants reached 57% vs. 40% in 2005, showing education-driven exodus leads to reduced regional human capital and.

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AI Summary. The share of young Canadians aged 25–39 living with parents doubled from 8.2% to 16.3% between 1991 and 2021, while homeownership among the same age group fell from ~56% to 50%.

Nojoud Al Mallees Bloomberg
Date Posted:

16.3% of Canadians aged 25–39 were living with their parents in 2021, up from 8.2% of baby boomers at the same age in 1991.

Why Are More Young Canadians Choosing to Live with Their Parents?

Core argument: Millennials aged 25–39 living with parents doubled to 16.3% vs. 8.2% for baby boomers, driving homeownership down to 49.9% from.

Millennials were twice as likely to live with their parents in 2021 than baby boomers were at the same age, a trend that was particularly acute in expensive cities but not fully attributed to affordability challenges. A new Statistics Canada study based on the most recent census data found 16.3% of millennials aged 25 to 39 were living with parents, up from 8.2% of baby boomers of the same age in 1991. After taking into account the share of millennials living with parents, the study found a lower rate of homeownership among young adults in 2021. While 55.9% of baby boomers in 1991 and 56.2% of Gen Xers in 2006 owned a home when they were aged 25 and 39, that proportion was only 49.9% for millennials.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Millennials aged 25–39 living with parents doubled to 16.3% vs. 8.2% for baby boomers, driving homeownership down to 49.9% from.
  2. Young adult homeownership declined 6–6.3 pts across generations, indicating housing affordability constraints result in delayed household formation among millennials.
  3. The 2x increase in co-residence with parents persists in expensive cities despite affordability being only a partial explanatory factor, suggesting.

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AI Summary. Construction costs almost always rise faster than overall inflation, with the period from 1975 to 1995 being the rare exception where costs grew more slowly or declined in real terms.

Brian Potter Construction Physics
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Multiple measures show real construction costs have “virtually never fallen” since 1875, with the striking exception of 1975–95—consistent with input cost and productivity series. The upward drift is not new; if anything, it has moderated over time.

Core argument: Construction costs outpaced inflation in 4 of 5 decades from 1915–1965 by >1 percentage point, driving persistent affordability pressures across.

Let’s look at the average annual growth rate for each index over 10-year periods, minus the average growth rate of CPI for the same period. This will let us see how construction costs are changing with respect to inflation over specific periods: positive values mean construction costs are rising faster than inflation, negative means construction costs are rising slower than inflation. We see that in almost every period of time, construction costs are rising faster than overall inflation for virtually every cost index. The major exception is the period from 1975 to 1995, where most indexes show lower rates of increase or even declines against overall inflation. We also see that historic rates of cost increase seem to be as bad or worse than modern ones. For four of the five 10-year periods between 1915 and 1965, the Turner Cost index rose more than a percentage point faster than overall inflation, whereas for the periods from 1995 to 2025 it rose less than a percentage point.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Construction costs outpaced inflation in 4 of 5 decades from 1915–1965 by >1 percentage point, driving persistent affordability pressures across.
  2. The 1975–1995 period showed construction costs rising slower than inflation, contrasting sharply with 1995–2025 trends where cost growth remains elevated.
  3. Modern construction cost inflation (1995–2025) runs <1 percentage point above CPI annually, substantially lower than early 20th-century rates, suggesting productivity.

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AI Summary. Nearly half of U.S. home improvement spending covers unavoidable replacements like heating and cooling systems, with average annual spending on such projects reaching $9,030—59% higher than 2009 levels after inflation. Older homes require setting aside 2–3% of a home's value annually, not the traditionally recommended 1%.

Veronica Dagher Wall Street Journal
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America’s housing stock is aging, with the median age of a home climbing to 44 years old. The cost of maintaining a home has increased, with real structural repair costs rising ~14.1%, and plumbing costs 23.6%, between 2022 and 2024.

How does the age of U.S. homes impact renovation spending?

Core argument: Replacement spending reached 49% of all home-improvement outlays, driving a shift toward mandatory maintenance over discretionary upgrades.

49% percent of all improvement spending is now for necessary replacements like HVAC that owners can’t delay, said Rachel Drew, director of Harvard’s Remodeling Futures Program. In 2023, homeowners in the U.S. spent an average of $9,030 on replacement projects such as windows, up 59% from 2009 after adjusting for inflation, said Harvard’s Drew. Financial advisers traditionally suggested setting aside 1% of a home’s value annually for upkeep, but many now argue that isn’t enough. While 1% may cover routine upkeep, 2% to 3% provides a more realistic cushion for expected maintenance, home-improvement projects and unexpected repairs, particularly for older homes, said Angie Hicks, co-founder of home-services company Angi.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Replacement spending reached 49% of all home-improvement outlays, driving a shift toward mandatory maintenance over discretionary upgrades.
  2. Homeowners spent $9,030 on replacements in 2023, up 59% from 2009 after inflation adjustment, leading advisers to recommend 2–3% of.
  3. The median U.S. home age of 44 years concentrates maintenance burdens in older regions like the Northeast, resulting in elevated.

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Joe Leahy and Wenjie Ding Financial Times
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Chinese funeral expenses were 45% of the mean annual wage in 2020. As real estate prices declined, many families started using empty apartments as “bone ash apartments.” The practice is being outlawed this week.

The new law comes as China prepares to celebrate the Qingming grave-sweeping festival on Sunday. Rapid urbanisation has raised demand for limited cemetery plots in cities. Coupled with this, China’s population is ageing at one of the fastest paces in history. The number of deaths in 2025 was 11.3mn, up from 9.8mn in 2015 and outpacing 7.9mn births last year. In contrast to apartments, whose prices have fallen sharply since President Xi Jinping’s campaign that “properties are for living in, not for speculation,” cemetery plots have become prohibitively expensive. A global funeral expense survey in 2020 by the insurer SunLife showed that China’s average funeral expenses were the second-highest in the world at about Rmb 37,375 ($5,400), after Japan, accounting for about 45% of average annual wages. While residential properties in China carry 70-year usage rights from the government, cemetery plots come with only a 20-year lease.

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Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang Brookings Papers On Economic Activity
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The deep recession after Japan’s 1990–1991 real estate crash saw low returns on investment, soft consumption and weak sentiment. After its property bust, China shows many parallels, but strong productivity and state-backed finance are potential cushions.

Japan’s prolonged recession was likely driven by the interplay of slowing returns to investment, soft consumption, and negative sentiment that reinforced these weaknesses. With some structural and cyclical characteristics closely resembling Japan’s pre- and post-bubble conditions, China appears to be in the middle stages of a multi-year correction. China’s post-boom adjustment is unfolding in a more difficult macroeconomic and demographic context than Japan’s. That said, China still possesses several economic and institutional advantages that could help cushion the blow of a prolonged real estate downturn. In Japan’s post-bubble era, the country’s productivity growth was considered a binding constraint, a factor that does not appear to limit China in the same way. Most crucially, China possesses a state-dominated financial system backed by implicit government guarantees and a highly proactive policymaking apparatus capable of large-scale interventions, which have thus far prevented the crisis from precipitating a financial sector breakdown.

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