Test Scores

Evidence on academic tests, skills assessments, grades, admissions exams, international comparisons, and what measured performance predicts. The archive examines measurement quality, incentives, inequality, and links to later outcomes.

AI Summary. China has extended travel restrictions on top artificial intelligence and chip talent to their spouses and children, who must now obtain government approval before going abroad even for short trips. The requirement broadens existing curbs on the movement of influential technology entrepreneurs, researchers and executives.

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Beijing has expanded overseas travel restrictions for top AI professionals to include their families. While not an outright ban, foreign travel will now require state approval.

Is China extending travel approval requirements to tech talent's families?

Core argument: China now requires spouses and children of certain AI and chip executives whose work is deemed paramount to state security to obtain Beijing’s approval before traveling abroad, even for short trips, according to people familiar with the matter.

Government agencies have recently begun to share the wider restrictions with affected people, which include prominent startup founders as well as the heads of strategically important companies in AI-related fields. Direct relatives such as spouses and children of certain AI and chip executives, whose work is considered paramount to state security, are now required to obtain approval from Beijing before going abroad even for short trips. That marks a broadening of existing curbs on the freedom of movement of China’s most influential tech talent. While not an outright ban on travel, the new requirement is likely to exert a further chilling effect on a tech sector already facing unprecedented curbs. China has restricted foreign travel for top AI professionals in private firms such as Alibaba and DeepSeek since earlier this year.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China now requires spouses and children of certain AI and chip executives whose work is deemed paramount to state security to obtain Beijing’s approval before traveling abroad, even for short trips, according to people familiar with the matter.
  2. The restrictions extend to prominent startup founders and heads of strategically important companies in AI-related fields, broadening existing curbs on the movement of China’s entrepreneurs, researchers and executives.
  3. China has restricted foreign travel for top AI professionals at private firms such as Alibaba and DeepSeek since earlier this year, and the new family requirement is likely to exert a further chilling effect on the tech sector.

AI Summary. An analysis of authors at a leading AI research conference finds China is the largest originating source of elite AI talent, with its share of researchers holding Chinese undergraduate degrees rising 11 percentage points to 57%, while the US share fell to 13%. The US remains a net importer of AI researchers, gaining 2,145 while China lost 1,729.

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Surveying education/employment histories of authors at the Neural Information Processing Systems conference, Ma and Yang infer China educated 57% of elite AI talent as of 2025, versus 13% for the US. Yet the US gained 2,145 researchers y/y while China lost 1,729.

Does China produce the most elite AI talent while America attracts it?

Core argument: Damien Ma and Binyi Yang find China’s share of elite AI talent, defined by undergraduate degrees earned in China, rose 11 percentage points to 57% in 2025 versus 2022, while the U.S. share fell to 13%.

[Using a methodology based on paper authors from the Neural Information Processing Systems conference (NeurIPS) Damien Ma and Binyi Yang find] China has established a commanding lead as the largest originating source of elite AI talent globally. Compared to 2022, the share of Chinese-origin AI talent, defined as those who received undergraduate degrees in China, increased 11 percentage points to 57% in 2025, while the U.S. share fell to 13%. The United States remains a magnet for global AI talent, particularly Chinese talent. Despite U.S.-China tensions, among AI researchers working in the United States, the 2025 share of those holding undergraduate degrees from China rose by 4 percentage points. When it comes to brain gain vs. brain drain, the United States saw a net gain of +2,145 researchers in 2025 while China registered a net loss of -1,729 researchers.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Damien Ma and Binyi Yang find China’s share of elite AI talent, defined by undergraduate degrees earned in China, rose 11 percentage points to 57% in 2025 versus 2022, while the U.S. share fell to 13%.
  2. Among AI researchers working in the United States, the share holding Chinese undergraduate degrees rose 4 percentage points in 2025, despite U.S.-China tensions.
  3. The United States recorded a net gain of 2,145 AI researchers in 2025, while China registered a net loss of 1,729, under Ma and Yang’s methodology based on NeurIPS paper authors.

AI Summary. International student assessment results show mathematics performance held near earlier levels for about 15 years before falling sharply, with mean scores down 9 points in math and about 14 in reading in the latest cycle. Reported student motivation and school engagement declined, and hasty incorrect answering rose to 11%.

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Mean OECD math and reading scores fell roughly 25 PISA points—about a year of schooling—between 2018 and 2025, alongside reduced motivation and engagement and increased carelessness, exemplified by a near-doubling of “hasty readers.”

Are international student test scores falling alongside declining motivation and engagement?

Core argument: PISA 2025 mean performance fell by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 points in reading between 2022 and 2025, after mathematics scores had remained close to their 2003 level through 2018.

In math, performance remained close to the 2003 level up to 2018, then dropped sharply btw 2018 and 2025. Mean performance dropped by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 score points in reading btw 2022 and 2025. Over the 2018-2025 period, the largest drops [in reading] were among the most advantaged 25% of socio-economic status, and the socio-economic gap with the most disadvantaged students reduced somewhat, by 11 points, on average across 35 OECD countries. In mathematics, the share of disadvantaged students scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased in previous cycles and remained high in 2025; among advantaged students, the share scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased, reaching 18% in 2025, about 4pp. Students’ reports of their motivation for learning and engagement with school also declined between 2022 and 2025. The proportion of “hasty readers” – those who gave fast and incorrect responses – increased by about five percentage points, on average, from almost 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025. Analyses for math, also show an increase in the proportion of hasty responses between 2022 and 2025.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. PISA 2025 mean performance fell by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 points in reading between 2022 and 2025, after mathematics scores had remained close to their 2003 level through 2018.
  2. Over 2018–2025, the largest reading declines came among the most advantaged 25% by socio-economic status, and the gap with the most disadvantaged students narrowed by 11 points on average across 35 OECD countries.
  3. The share of "hasty readers," who gave fast and incorrect responses, rose about five percentage points, from almost 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025, with hasty responses in mathematics also increasing between 2022 and 2025.

AI Summary. 30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old, yet US workers scoring at that low level earn an average of nearly $30 an hour and two-thirds are employed, compared with about $20 and fewer than half employed in Britain. The author argues this reflects stronger economic growth rather than vocational education policy.

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Using OECD skills data and the Luxembourg Income Study, Burn-Murdoch finds US workers at the lowest levels of literacy and numeracy earn ~ on par with British workers scoring a 2, ~ a mean score.

Does economic growth matter more than education policy for low-skilled workers' pay?

Core argument: 30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old, yet US workers scoring that low earn an average of almost $30 per hour and two-thirds of them are employed.

30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old. The same proportion of US workers who score stunningly low on literacy earn an average of almost $30 per hour, and two-thirds of them are in work. Their British counterparts make the equivalent of $20 and fewer than half are employed. This all looks more like the fruits of years of stronger growth than vocational education policy. We should view education as creating potential that a strong economy unleashes (and a weak one disappoints).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. 30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old, yet US workers scoring that low earn an average of almost $30 per hour and two-thirds of them are employed.
  2. British workers with similarly low literacy scores earn the equivalent of $20 per hour and fewer than half are employed, a gap the author attributes to years of stronger US growth rather than vocational education policy.
  3. The author argues that education should be viewed as creating potential that a strong economy unleashes and a weak one disappoints.

AI Summary. High-achieving Chinese high school graduates are increasingly applying to police and military academies and other schools offering a clear path to public-sector jobs, pushing required entrance-exam scores up. Some programs now demand more than 650 points out of 750, rivaling the least competitive courses at China's most prestigious universities.

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Gaokao scores are rising at police and military academies in China as the labor market deteriorates. Applicants to the top courses at a top police academy fell only three points short of the minimum score for early admissions to the least competitive course at Tsinghua.

Are China's top students turning to police and military academies?

Core argument: Applicants to the most competitive programmes at the People's Public Security University of China needed 652 of 750 points on this year's gaokao in Jiangsu, three points below early admission to Tsinghua University's least competitive course.

Chinese high school graduates are increasingly shifting their sights towards police and military academies and other institutions that offer a clear path to public-sector jobs. Admission scores needed for some of these institutions have jumped — with some undergraduate courses requiring more than 650 points out of a maximum of 750 — reflecting strong demand from high-achieving students. Some of their courses are now as tough to enter as the least competitive subjects at top-tier universities. Applicants to the most competitive programmes at the People’s Public Security University of China (PPSUC) needed 652 points out of 750 in this year’s gaokao in Jiangsu, one of China’s wealthiest provinces. That was just three points below the minimum score for early admissions to the least competitive course at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, the country’s most prestigious university. China’s defence ministry said that students admitted to military academies this year ranked, on average, among the top 6% of gaokao candidates in their provinces.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Applicants to the most competitive programmes at the People's Public Security University of China needed 652 of 750 points on this year's gaokao in Jiangsu, three points below early admission to Tsinghua University's least competitive course.
  2. China's defence ministry said students admitted to military academies this year ranked, on average, among the top 6% of gaokao candidates in their provinces.
  3. Chinese high school graduates are increasingly shifting toward police and military academies and other institutions offering a clear path to public-sector jobs, with some undergraduate courses now requiring more than 650 points out of 750.

AI Summary. A study of China's imperial civil service examination estimates that both exam performance and ties to powerful examiners had larger effects on career outcomes for high-performing candidates, indicating merit and networks were complements rather than substitutes. The authors argue this complementarity makes the influence of networks harder to distinguish from merit.

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From 1644–1905, Qing China staffed its bureaucracy through exams and patronage. Only 12.6% of exam graduates reached top office, but patronage favored stronger performers, illustrating how merit and connections can be complements rather than substitutes.

Do merit and connections reinforce each other in civil service careers?

Core argument: In China's imperial examination system, exam performance mattered more for candidates in the high-performing category, consistent with an institutional design that steered that elite group toward more prestigious careers.

Figure 5 studies the interplay between merit and networks by estimating the effects of exam performance and ties to powerful examiners separately for the high- and low-performing categories. The left panel shows the effects of exam performance for the two categories, while the right panel presents those of examiner power. Two patterns stand out. First, exam performance matters more for the high category, consistent with the institutional design that steered this elite group toward more prestigious careers. Second, ties to powerful examiners are also more valuable for the high category, pointing to a complementarity between merit and networks. To understand the implications of our finding on complementarity, it is useful to contrast it with the counterfactual of substitution. When merit and networks are complements (rather than substitutes), those who attained top office tend to exhibit both stronger exam performance and stronger connections. By contrast, under substitution, strong networks would compensate for weaker exam performance, and vice versa. Complementarity implies [a higher degree of meritocracy than substitution, as] successful candidates appear to have had better performance. Second, complementarity makes it harder to identify the influence of networks: their effects can operate under the guise of merit rather than as a visible substitute for it.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. In China's imperial examination system, exam performance mattered more for candidates in the high-performing category, consistent with an institutional design that steered that elite group toward more prestigious careers.
  2. Ties to powerful examiners were also more valuable for the high-performing category, pointing to complementarity between merit and networks rather than substitution.
  3. Complementarity implies a higher degree of meritocracy than substitution, since those attaining top office tended to show both stronger exam performance and stronger connections, and it makes the influence of networks harder to identify because it can operate under the guise of merit.

AI Summary. The authors find no statistically significant evidence that $190bn in federal emergency K-12 school aid mitigated pandemic learning loss or raised district spending. Districts qualifying for additional funds saw local revenues fall by $907 per pupil over three years, about 8% of pre-pandemic average, roughly 80% from property taxes.

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Exploiting a discontinuity in K-12 public school districts’ qualification for Covid emergency funding (ESSR), Clemens et al find that the funds did not mitigate learning loss. To a large extent, local districts used them to lower property taxes.

Do federal emergency education grants reduce student learning loss?

Core argument: Districts crossing the 5% poverty cutoff for additional ESSER funds saw local revenues fall an estimated $907 per pupil over three years, about 8% of the pre-COVID average.

Emergency funding for K-12 public schools was an important component of recession spending packages during COVID, involving $190 billion in additional expenditure. We see no evidence that ESSER funds helped to mitigate learning loss, at least in the short run. We find no statistically significant evidence that districts increased expenditures in SY 2021 or SY 2022. We do find evidence that districts that qualified for additional ESSER funds had statistically significant reductions in local revenues that were in excess of their ESSER funds. This pass-through of federal funds may partially explain why ESSER had minimal impacts on learning loss for districts around the 5% poverty threshold. Our estimates suggest that over the three years, crossing the qualification cutoff for additional ESSER funds is associated with a $907 per pupil decrease in local revenues, or about 8% of the pre-COVID average. We show the decline in local revenues as an event study in Figure 3, which includes a flat pre-COVID trend in local revenues per pupil across the qualification threshold. In Table 5,Column 5 [], we can see that about 80% of the revenue decline came from decreases in revenues from property taxes, [which fell] by $718 per pupil across the 3 years. The findings apply specifically to districts in the neighborhood of the 5% poverty threshold for qualifying for additional ESSER funds.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Districts crossing the 5% poverty cutoff for additional ESSER funds saw local revenues fall an estimated $907 per pupil over three years, about 8% of the pre-COVID average.
  2. About 80% of that local revenue decline came from property taxes, which fell by $718 per pupil across the three years.
  3. The authors find no evidence that ESSER emergency K-12 funding, totaling $190 billion, mitigated learning loss in the short run, and no statistically significant increase in district expenditures in SY 2021 or SY 2022.

AI Summary. Black and Hispanic students make up about 62% of New York City public school enrollment but about 10% of the incoming freshman class at the city's eight most prestigious high schools, where roughly 80% of seats went to Asian and white students. Asian students are about 19% of public school enrollment and received 57% of specialized-school offers.

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62% of New York City public school students are black or Hispanic, and 19% are Asian. Stuyvesant, an elite public school, offered admission to 777 students. Three offers went to black students, and 21 to Hispanics; 69% went to Asian students.

How do admissions at elite public high schools compare with district enrollment?

Core argument: Stuyvesant High School made 3 of its 777 admissions offers to Black students and 21 to Hispanic students, together a nearly one-third decline from the previous freshman class.

About 62% of the students in the city’s public schools are Black or Hispanic. At [NYC] eight most prestigious high schools, about 10% of the students in the incoming freshman class are expected to be Black or Hispanic, roughly the same as last year. About 80% of the seats went to Asian and white students. At Stuyvesant High School in Manhattan, often considered the most selective of the city’s specialized high schools, three of the 777 offers were made to Black students, and 21 were for Hispanic students, together representing a nearly one-third decline from the previous freshman class. About 19% of all public school students are Asian, but they received 57% of the offers for the specialized schools for the fall. The rates were higher at some schools, including 69% at Stuyvesant and 78% at Queens High School for the Sciences at York College.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Stuyvesant High School made 3 of its 777 admissions offers to Black students and 21 to Hispanic students, together a nearly one-third decline from the previous freshman class.
  2. Black and Hispanic students make up about 62% of New York City public school enrollment but about 10% of the incoming freshman class at the city's eight most prestigious high schools, roughly unchanged from last year.
  3. Asian students account for about 19% of New York City public school students but received 57% of specialized high school offers for the fall, including 69% at Stuyvesant and 78% at Queens High School for the Sciences at York College.