Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

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  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

K-12

Research on K–12 education, schools, teachers, funding, attendance, curricula, accountability, and student achievement. Coverage connects learning and educational institutions to later work, earnings, mobility, and economic opportunity.

AI Summary. U.S. public school K-12 enrollment totaled 48.8m students in the 2025-26 school year, down 3.7% from 2017-18, as kindergarten declines reflect fewer births five to six years earlier. Demographers expect the decline to continue, and even accelerate, because of lower birthrates.

Chao Deng Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Enrollment at American K-12 public schools was ~48.8mm in the 2025–26 school year, down 3.7% from 2017–2018, reflecting demographics rolling over and flight from public schools. The decline is putting pressure on school budgets as state funding is generally tied to enrollment, while staff and building costs are fixed.

Are falling birthrates shrinking public school enrollment?

Core argument: U.S. K-12 public school enrollment totaled 48.8 million students in the 2025-26 school year, down 3.7% from 2017-18, according to Georgetown professor Marguerite Roza’s analysis of federal data.

Annual births in the U.S. have fallen off since peaking in 2007. Today’s kindergarten enrollment declines reflect the “missing” births of five to six years earlier. Enrollment at K-12 public schools totaled 48.8 million students in the 2025-26 school year, down 3.7% from 2017-18, according to [Marguerite Roza, a Georgetown professor] analysis of federal data. Demographers like her expect the decline to continue, even accelerate, because of lower birthrates.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. K-12 public school enrollment totaled 48.8 million students in the 2025-26 school year, down 3.7% from 2017-18, according to Georgetown professor Marguerite Roza’s analysis of federal data.
  2. Annual U.S. births have fallen since peaking in 2007, and current kindergarten enrollment declines reflect the “missing” births of five to six years earlier.
  3. Demographers including Marguerite Roza expect public school enrollment declines to continue and even accelerate because of lower birthrates.

Related Articles:

  • PISA 2025 Results (Volume I) — International student assessment results show mathematics performance held near earlier levels for about 15 years before falling sharply, with mean scores down 9 points in math and about 14 in reading in the latest cycle. Reported student motivation and school engagement declined, and hasty incorrect answering rose to 11%.
  • Plunging US Birth Rate Leaves Too Many Colleges With Too Few Kids — A falling US birth rate is projected to shrink the pool of college-age Americans, leaving schools with empty classrooms. Many smaller, lesser-known colleges are already firing professors, cutting liberal arts courses in favor of science and technology programs, or closing entirely.
  • Depopulation Globally and in the Asia-Pacific: The Shape of Things to Come — Population aging and fertility below replacement levels are connected to a revolution in family structure in which families grow smaller, fewer people marry, and voluntary childlessness becomes common across countries. As a result, families become less able to bear the demands that may be placed on them.

AI Summary. College graduates in the majors most exposed to artificial intelligence show statistically significant employment declines following the arrival of AI chatbots, with the most-exposed 10% of majors down about 5 percentage points and the seventh and eighth deciles down about 2 points. The authors note flat pre-2020 trends and precise timing argue against alternative explanations such as uneven post-pandemic recovery.

Cody Orr, Lee Tucker and Lawrence Warren U.S. Census Bureau
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A Census Bureau analysis of 29% of recent US college grads ranked majors by AI exposure using pre-ChatGPT occupational patterns. After ChatGPT’s November 2022 release, employment fell across the top 4 exposure deciles, with the top decile down 5pp compared to the bottom 6 deciles.

Are graduates in AI-exposed majors seeing employment declines?

Core argument: Employment for graduates in the most AI-exposed decile of college majors declined by an average of five percentage points relative to 2022 after ChatGPT’s release, with statistically significant declines of about two percentage points for deciles seven and eight.

In the quarters prior to 2020, the event study coefficients are usually statistically indistinguishable from zero across all deciles. Post-ChatGPT, there is a small to moderate decline in employment relative to the control group across the top four deciles with a particularly large effect for the tenth decile. For deciles seven, eight, and especially ten, these are statistically significant declines: an average of two percentage points for deciles seven and eight and five percentage points for decile ten relative to 2022. Decile nine also shows evidence of statistically significant declines, but this might reflect reversion to long-run trends rather than a negative effect of AI. Employment effects are clearly most acute among the most-exposed decile of majors. The relatively fat pre-trends and precise timing help to rule out some alternative explanations, such as heterogeneity in the post-pandemic recovery or the effects of a tight labor market in the reference period.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Employment for graduates in the most AI-exposed decile of college majors declined by an average of five percentage points relative to 2022 after ChatGPT’s release, with statistically significant declines of about two percentage points for deciles seven and eight.
  2. Event study coefficients were usually statistically indistinguishable from zero across all exposure deciles in the quarters before 2020, with small to moderate employment declines concentrated in the top four deciles afterward.
  3. Flat pre-trends and the precise timing of the employment declines help rule out some alternative explanations, such as heterogeneity in the post-pandemic recovery or a tight labor market in the reference period, while decile nine’s decline may reflect reversion to long-run trends.

Related Articles:

  • Looking for the Ladder — The article argues that the hiring downturn in occupations most exposed to generative AI reflects interest-rate sensitivity rather than AI itself, since roughly 38% of workers in the most AI-exposed quintile work in information, finance and insurance, and professional and technical services, versus under 2% in the least-exposed quintile.
  • Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence — Employment for workers aged 22–25 in the occupations most exposed to artificial intelligence has declined roughly 18pp relative to less-exposed peers, with no comparable decline in other age groups. The authors find this operates mainly through reduced hiring, concentrated where AI substitutes for human tasks rather than complements them.
  • The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Era — The U.S. college wage premium fell from 0.626 to 0.575 after four decades of expansion, implying the first sustained negative growth in relative demand for college-educated labor. The authors estimate that weaker wage growth in occupations highly exposed to artificial intelligence accounts for roughly 28% of that decline, though the patterns are not causal.

AI Summary. Varsity sports participation varies with academic achievement: after adjusting for school size, 35% of students in the top quintile of eighth-grade math scores played varsity sports versus 12% in the bottom quintile. Students at the smallest schools were 2.8x as likely to participate as those at the largest.

Nat Malkus and Sam Hollon American Enterprise Institute
Date Posted:

A large sample of Indiana high school students shows a near-linear relationship between 8th grade math test scores and participation in varsity athletics. Academic success and participation in extracurriculars appear to be complementary.

How do academic achievement and school size shape varsity sports participation?

Core argument: After adjusting for school size, 35% of students in the top eighth-grade math achievement quintile played varsity sports in 2025, compared with 12% in the bottom quintile, with a largely linear relationship across quintiles.

We find large gaps in varsity sports participation by academic achievement, which we measure using students’ eighth-grade math test scores. Students who attended the smallest schools (first quintile) were 2.8 times as likely to participate in varsity sports as those who attended the largest schools (fifth quintile). We find that after adjusting for school size 35% of students in the top achievement quintile played varsity sports in 2025, compared with just 12% of students in the bottom quintile. In general, the relationship between achievement quintiles and varsity sports participation was remarkably linear. [The exception was football], the largest sport by participation [17% of all varsity athletes and overwhelmingly male]. Here the top quintile [in 8th grade math] had 20% lower odds of playing than students in the middle achievement quintile.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. After adjusting for school size, 35% of students in the top eighth-grade math achievement quintile played varsity sports in 2025, compared with 12% in the bottom quintile, with a largely linear relationship across quintiles.
  2. Students at the smallest schools (first quintile by size) were 2.8 times as likely to participate in varsity sports as students at the largest schools (fifth quintile).
  3. Football, the largest sport at 17% of all varsity athletes and overwhelmingly male, is the exception: students in the top eighth-grade math quintile had 20% lower odds of playing than those in the middle quintile.

Related Articles:

  • An Extra Point for Attendance: The Impact of High School Varsity Athletics on Absenteeism — High school varsity athletes are absent about 1.37 percentage points less often than non-athletes over the school year, nearly 20% lower, after controlling for factors linked to both sports participation and attendance. Athletes' absence rates fall further while their sport is in season, which the authors argue suggests participation itself improves attendance.
  • The Benefits of Scholastic Athletics — Using longitudinal data with extensive controls for family background, ability, and personality, the authors estimate that college varsity athletes from disadvantaged backgrounds—including women and men from low-income families and Black men—earn more after graduation than comparable non-athletes. The authors conclude that participation in college sports promotes social mobility, with no evidence of adverse outcomes.
  • No Revenge for Nerds? Evaluating the Careers of Ivy League Athletes — Ivy League athletes are far more likely than non-athlete classmates to enter business and finance jobs, and the authors estimate they attain higher terminal wages, greater cumulative career earnings, and more senior positions, controlling for school, graduation year, major, and first job. The authors argue this suggests non-academic human capital developed through athletics is valued in the labor market.

AI Summary. The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 without a college degree has rarely been lower in the past two decades, and relative to their own historical ranges the job market looks much better for blue-collar and manual-service workers. Degree-holders still face lower unemployment rates overall.

Theo Francis and Ray Smith Wall Street Journal
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In 2026, the 12-month moving-average unemployment for college-educated 22–34-year-olds is above its post-2003 mean, while the rate for non-college peers is historically low. Prime-age college grads still have lower unemployment than those with no degree.

Is the job market unusually strong for workers without college degrees?

Core argument: The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 who never graduated from college has rarely been lower in the past two decades, based on data through July.

The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 who never graduated from college has rarely been lower in the past two decades. To gauge how the job market has shifted for each cohort, [Gad Levanon, Burning Glass’s chief economist] compared current unemployment rates for the different groups with their own range of unemployment rates since 2003. The analysis included data through July. By that measure, the job market looks much better for blue-collar workers, including those in construction and on manufacturing lines, and manual-service workers. It is [however] still easier to find a job with a college degree. The unemployment rate for degree-holders in their prime working years—ages 25 to 54—averaged 2.7% for the 12 months ending in July - well below the 3.6% rate for workers with just some college education, and 4.7% for people with a high-school diploma only.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 who never graduated from college has rarely been lower in the past two decades, based on data through July.
  2. Burning Glass chief economist Gad Levanon compared each cohort's current unemployment rate against its own range since 2003, and by that measure the job market looks much better for blue-collar workers in construction and manufacturing and for manual-service workers.
  3. College graduates ages 25 to 54 averaged a 2.7% unemployment rate for the 12 months ending in July, below the 3.6% rate for workers with some college education and 4.7% for those with only a high-school diploma.

Related Articles:

  • College Grads Struggle to Find Jobs. Non-Grads Are Giving Up — The narrowing gap in unemployment rates between young college graduates and non-graduates appears driven mainly by non-graduates dropping out of the labor force rather than by diplomas losing value, since people not seeking work aren't counted as unemployed. The share of young non-graduates employed is 1.7 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels.
  • To Fix Education, Fix The Economy First — 30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old, yet US workers scoring at that low level earn an average of nearly $30 an hour and two-thirds are employed, compared with about $20 and fewer than half employed in Britain. The author argues this reflects stronger economic growth rather than vocational education policy.
  • The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Era — The U.S. college wage premium fell from 0.626 to 0.575 after four decades of expansion, implying the first sustained negative growth in relative demand for college-educated labor. The authors estimate that weaker wage growth in occupations highly exposed to artificial intelligence accounts for roughly 28% of that decline, though the patterns are not causal.

AI Summary. International student assessment results show mathematics performance held near earlier levels for about 15 years before falling sharply, with mean scores down 9 points in math and about 14 in reading in the latest cycle. Reported student motivation and school engagement declined, and hasty incorrect answering rose to 11%.

OECD Staff Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Date Posted:
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Mean OECD math and reading scores fell roughly 25 PISA points—about a year of schooling—between 2018 and 2025, alongside reduced motivation and engagement and increased carelessness, exemplified by a near-doubling of “hasty readers.”

Are international student test scores falling alongside declining motivation and engagement?

Core argument: PISA 2025 mean performance fell by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 points in reading between 2022 and 2025, after mathematics scores had remained close to their 2003 level through 2018.

In math, performance remained close to the 2003 level up to 2018, then dropped sharply btw 2018 and 2025. Mean performance dropped by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 score points in reading btw 2022 and 2025. Over the 2018-2025 period, the largest drops [in reading] were among the most advantaged 25% of socio-economic status, and the socio-economic gap with the most disadvantaged students reduced somewhat, by 11 points, on average across 35 OECD countries. In mathematics, the share of disadvantaged students scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased in previous cycles and remained high in 2025; among advantaged students, the share scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased, reaching 18% in 2025, about 4pp. Students’ reports of their motivation for learning and engagement with school also declined between 2022 and 2025. The proportion of “hasty readers” – those who gave fast and incorrect responses – increased by about five percentage points, on average, from almost 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025. Analyses for math, also show an increase in the proportion of hasty responses between 2022 and 2025.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. PISA 2025 mean performance fell by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 points in reading between 2022 and 2025, after mathematics scores had remained close to their 2003 level through 2018.
  2. Over 2018–2025, the largest reading declines came among the most advantaged 25% by socio-economic status, and the gap with the most disadvantaged students narrowed by 11 points on average across 35 OECD countries.
  3. The share of "hasty readers," who gave fast and incorrect responses, rose about five percentage points, from almost 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025, with hasty responses in mathematics also increasing between 2022 and 2025.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Are China’s Students Really Number One? A Statistical Riddle — China's reported 65-point jump in mean international student test scores between testing rounds coincided with a change in which provinces represented the country, swapping the most populous province for a richer, much smaller one. The author argues such swings, including a fall in low performers from 43% to 19% in reading, are unmatched elsewhere.
  • Have Humans Passed Peak Brain Power? — The share of Americans reporting they read a book in the past year has fallen below half, alongside declining performance in numeracy and problem-solving in most countries. The share of adults unable to use mathematical reasoning to evaluate the validity of statements averages 25% in high-income countries and 35% in the US.

AI Summary. The narrowing gap in unemployment rates between young college graduates and non-graduates appears driven mainly by non-graduates dropping out of the labor force rather than by diplomas losing value, since people not seeking work aren't counted as unemployed. The share of young non-graduates employed is 1.7 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels.

Justin Fox Bloomberg
Date Posted:
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Labor force participation is rising for American college graduates aged 25–29, and is now at 89.4% – above its pre-pandemic level. Participation among non-college members of that age cohort is falling; at 78.7%, it is now below its pre-pandemic level.

Is the narrowing unemployment gap driven by non-graduates leaving the workforce?

Core argument: The employment-population ratio for young adults without college degrees is 1.7 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level and trending downward, while the ratio for young college graduates sits near its pre-pandemic level.

The narrowing of [the unemployment gap btw college and non-college workers] in recent years has lent support to narratives that college diplomas are losing their value amid the rise of large language models, the purported return of blue-collar work, and other job market changes. But while it may well be that diplomas have lost value, the recent shrinking of the young-adult education-unemployment gap seems to be driven mainly by a different phenomenon. Growing numbers of young adults without college degrees simply aren’t trying to find work and thus aren’t counted in unemployment calculations. The employment-population ratio for young college grads is not far off from where it was just before the pandemic and seems as if it might be headed upward again after a sharp drop in 2023 and 2024, for non-grads it is 1.7 percentage points lower than before the pandemic and clearly trending downward.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The employment-population ratio for young adults without college degrees is 1.7 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level and trending downward, while the ratio for young college graduates sits near its pre-pandemic level.
  2. The narrowing unemployment gap between young college and non-college workers appears driven mainly by growing numbers of non-graduates who are not seeking work and therefore are not counted as unemployed.
  3. The employment-population ratio for young college graduates fell sharply in 2023 and 2024 and appears as if it might be headed upward again.

Related Articles:

  • Labor Force Participation Is High If You Measure It Right — The headline labor force participation rate — the share of people 16 and older working or looking for work — is a limited gauge of labor market health because participation varies greatly by age. Aging baby boomers and the addition of nearly 1.7m Americans 65 and older to population estimates add distortion.
  • How Labor Force Participation Has Diverged Across Genders — Between 1976 and 2024 the trend labor force participation rate fell 10.1 percentage points for men and rose 8.2 points for women. Population aging lowered participation by about 4 points for each gender and rising education raised it (+6 for women, +3 for men), but the divergence is dominated by participation trends within age-gender groups.
  • AI, Immigration, and Collapsing Labor Force Participation — As labor force participation falls, a shrinking group of workers generates the income, taxes, and innovation supporting a growing number of non-workers, leaving the economy more fragile because labor shocks are concentrated among fewer participants. Labor scarcity raises the return on automation, robotics, and software, making growth depend on productivity rather than participation.

AI Summary. The authors find no statistically significant evidence that $190bn in federal emergency K-12 school aid mitigated pandemic learning loss or raised district spending. Districts qualifying for additional funds saw local revenues fall by $907 per pupil over three years, about 8% of pre-pandemic average, roughly 80% from property taxes.

Jeffrey Clemens, Philip Hoxie and Stan Veuger National Bureau of Economic Research
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Exploiting a discontinuity in K-12 public school districts’ qualification for Covid emergency funding (ESSR), Clemens et al find that the funds did not mitigate learning loss. To a large extent, local districts used them to lower property taxes.

Do federal emergency education grants reduce student learning loss?

Core argument: Districts crossing the 5% poverty cutoff for additional ESSER funds saw local revenues fall an estimated $907 per pupil over three years, about 8% of the pre-COVID average.

Emergency funding for K-12 public schools was an important component of recession spending packages during COVID, involving $190 billion in additional expenditure. We see no evidence that ESSER funds helped to mitigate learning loss, at least in the short run. We find no statistically significant evidence that districts increased expenditures in SY 2021 or SY 2022. We do find evidence that districts that qualified for additional ESSER funds had statistically significant reductions in local revenues that were in excess of their ESSER funds. This pass-through of federal funds may partially explain why ESSER had minimal impacts on learning loss for districts around the 5% poverty threshold. Our estimates suggest that over the three years, crossing the qualification cutoff for additional ESSER funds is associated with a $907 per pupil decrease in local revenues, or about 8% of the pre-COVID average. We show the decline in local revenues as an event study in Figure 3, which includes a flat pre-COVID trend in local revenues per pupil across the qualification threshold. In Table 5,Column 5 [], we can see that about 80% of the revenue decline came from decreases in revenues from property taxes, [which fell] by $718 per pupil across the 3 years. The findings apply specifically to districts in the neighborhood of the 5% poverty threshold for qualifying for additional ESSER funds.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Districts crossing the 5% poverty cutoff for additional ESSER funds saw local revenues fall an estimated $907 per pupil over three years, about 8% of the pre-COVID average.
  2. About 80% of that local revenue decline came from property taxes, which fell by $718 per pupil across the three years.
  3. The authors find no evidence that ESSER emergency K-12 funding, totaling $190 billion, mitigated learning loss in the short run, and no statistically significant increase in district expenditures in SY 2021 or SY 2022.

Related Articles:

AI Summary. Black and Hispanic students make up about 62% of New York City public school enrollment but about 10% of the incoming freshman class at the city's eight most prestigious high schools, where roughly 80% of seats went to Asian and white students. Asian students are about 19% of public school enrollment and received 57% of specialized-school offers.

Matthew Haag New York Times
Date Posted:

62% of New York City public school students are black or Hispanic, and 19% are Asian. Stuyvesant, an elite public school, offered admission to 777 students. Three offers went to black students, and 21 to Hispanics; 69% went to Asian students.

How do admissions at elite public high schools compare with district enrollment?

Core argument: Stuyvesant High School made 3 of its 777 admissions offers to Black students and 21 to Hispanic students, together a nearly one-third decline from the previous freshman class.

About 62% of the students in the city’s public schools are Black or Hispanic. At [NYC] eight most prestigious high schools, about 10% of the students in the incoming freshman class are expected to be Black or Hispanic, roughly the same as last year. About 80% of the seats went to Asian and white students. At Stuyvesant High School in Manhattan, often considered the most selective of the city’s specialized high schools, three of the 777 offers were made to Black students, and 21 were for Hispanic students, together representing a nearly one-third decline from the previous freshman class. About 19% of all public school students are Asian, but they received 57% of the offers for the specialized schools for the fall. The rates were higher at some schools, including 69% at Stuyvesant and 78% at Queens High School for the Sciences at York College.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Stuyvesant High School made 3 of its 777 admissions offers to Black students and 21 to Hispanic students, together a nearly one-third decline from the previous freshman class.
  2. Black and Hispanic students make up about 62% of New York City public school enrollment but about 10% of the incoming freshman class at the city's eight most prestigious high schools, roughly unchanged from last year.
  3. Asian students account for about 19% of New York City public school students but received 57% of specialized high school offers for the fall, including 69% at Stuyvesant and 78% at Queens High School for the Sciences at York College.

Related Articles:

  • White Flight from Asian Immigration: Evidence from California Public Schools — In California public schools, the authors estimate that the arrival of one Asian student in a high-socioeconomic-status suburban district is associated with the departure of 1.5 white students, alongside rising academic performance. They suggest this reflects parental concerns about academic competition rather than housing market dynamics or direct racial animus.
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Americans and Affirmative Action: How the Public Sees the Consideration of Race in College Admissions, Hiring — Survey research finds more Americans disapprove than approve of colleges considering race and ethnicity in admissions: half of U.S. adults said they disapprove of selective colleges weighing race and ethnicity to increase diversity, a third approved, and 16% were unsure. In another survey, 82% said colleges should not consider race or ethnicity, versus 17% who said they should.