Family/Marriage

Evidence on marriage, fertility, parenting, household formation, gender roles, and the relationship between family life and economic outcomes. Coverage connects changing families to work, education, mobility, wellbeing, and demographics.

AI Summary. In Spain, immigrant households work less, earn less, pay less in taxes, and are more likely to use social assistance than native households at every level of education. Non-EU-origin households are almost three times as likely to receive social assistance, with 6% of highly educated non-EU households receiving it versus 4.4% of all native households.

Date Posted:

Eberstadt argues immigration at scale may not postpone the crisis of the European welfare state. In Spain, non-EU immigrant households are ~3x more likely to receive social assistance than natives at every education level, and draw larger amounts when they do.

Do immigrant households in Spain use more social assistance than natives?

Core argument: At every educational level, non-EU-origin households in Spain are almost three times as likely as native Spanish households to receive government social assistance, and average social assistance follows the same pattern.

Spain’s immigrants work less, earn less, pay less in taxes, and use more social assistance benefits. Maybe the nostrum that mass immigration is helping postpone the crisis of the European welfare state needs to be examined more carefully. Immigrant households are much more likely to utilize social program benefits than Spanish nationals, regardless of educational attainment. At every educational level, non-EU-origin households are almost three times as likely to be taking government social assistance as native Spaniards; so too average social assistance. Hardly less noteworthy: The incidence of social assistance, and average benefits per household, for high-education non-EU households (6%) is higher than for native Spanish households of all educational backgrounds (4.4%) even though most Spanish natives lack higher education.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. At every educational level, non-EU-origin households in Spain are almost three times as likely as native Spanish households to receive government social assistance, and average social assistance follows the same pattern.
  2. High-education non-EU households in Spain take social assistance at a 6% rate, above the 4.4% rate for native Spanish households of all educational backgrounds, even though most Spanish natives lack higher education.
  3. Spain’s immigrants work less, earn less, pay less in taxes, and use more social assistance benefits, which invites closer examination of the claim that mass immigration is helping postpone the crisis of the European welfare state.

AI Summary. U.S. survey data on high school students show the share of 9th graders identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual fell from 17% to 11% over two years, compared with a decline from 18% to 16% among 12th graders. The drop was concentrated among girls, from 27% to 22%, versus 9% to 7% among boys.

Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Among US high-school students, the LGB share fell btw 2023 to 2025 by 5pp for girls (27% to 22%), and 2pp for boys (9% to 7%). The preceding rise was likewise larger for girls: +128% from 2015 to 2021, versus +99% for boys to 2023.

Are younger teens less likely to identify as lesbian, gay, or bisexual?

Core argument: The share of U.S. 9th graders identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual fell from 17% in 2023 to 11% in 2025 in the CDC’s Youth Risk Behavior Survey, while 12th graders declined from 18% to 16%.

[New data from the Youth Risk Survey of U.S. 9th to 12th graders from the CDC shows] for 12th graders, 17 and 18 years old, identifying as LGB declines only a few percentage points between 2023 and 2025 (from 18% to 16%). But the headline result is for 9th graders (14 and 15 years old): Identifying as LGB absolutely plummets between 2023 and 2025, from 17% to 11%. That really does look like a free fall. The decline appears to be driven almost entirely by girls. Identifying as LGB dropped from 27% in 2023 to 22% in 2025 among girls, and from 9% to 7% among boys. [In terms of the share of high school students reporting engaging in same-sex activity] most high school students are not sexually active, so this is only a subsample of the larger group. For boys, there’s been a fairly steady rise in same-sex partners, not too different from the pattern of identifying as LGB among boys. The story is different for girls, where having non-heterosexual sex peaked in 2021 and then fell steeply.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The share of U.S. 9th graders identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual fell from 17% in 2023 to 11% in 2025 in the CDC’s Youth Risk Behavior Survey, while 12th graders declined from 18% to 16%.
  2. The decline appears driven almost entirely by girls, whose LGB identification fell from 27% in 2023 to 22% in 2025, compared with a drop from 9% to 7% among boys.
  3. Among sexually active teens, the share of boys reporting at least one same-sex partner has risen fairly steadily, while for girls it peaked in 2021 and then fell steeply.

AI Summary. Posts across Chinese social media platforms including RedNote, Douyin and Weibo describe low wages, scarce jobs, falling property values and fear about the future, with some users turning hardship into dark humor or mocking official propaganda. The volume of pessimistic and sarcastic posts is striking given that China's internet censorship has grown more ruthless over the past decade.

Date Posted:

Attitudes expressed on Chinese social media are increasingly negative. Given that the “censorship apparatus still controls the internet,” the increasingly negative online sentiment, much of it about “economic despair,” is “striking,” Li Yuan remarks.

Are Chinese social media users voicing growing economic pessimism despite censorship?

Core argument: Li Yuan reports that the first roughly 30 posts on her RedNote feed were nearly all about economic despair, many drawing hundreds or thousands of likes, with suggested searches including "Is there a future for employment in China?".

Across RedNote, Douyin, Weibo and other popular platforms, you can scroll endless posts about meager wages, scarce jobs, falling property values and fear about the future. Some turn their hardships into dark humor. Others hijack official posts and hashtags and turn propaganda into spectacles of mockery. China’s internet censorship has grown increasingly ruthless over the past decade. That makes the sheer volume of the pessimistic posts and sarcastic comments all the more striking. When [Li Yuan opened her] RedNote in recent weeks, [she] was surprised to find that the first 30 or so posts were nearly all about economic despair, many with hundreds or thousands of likes. The suggested searches could be even gloomier. “Is there a future for employment in China?” read one.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Li Yuan reports that the first roughly 30 posts on her RedNote feed were nearly all about economic despair, many drawing hundreds or thousands of likes, with suggested searches including "Is there a future for employment in China?".
  2. Posts across RedNote, Douyin, Weibo and other Chinese platforms describe meager wages, scarce jobs, falling property values and fear about the future, with some users turning hardship into dark humor.
  3. Chinese users hijack official posts and hashtags to turn propaganda into spectacles of mockery, a volume of pessimistic and sarcastic commentary made striking by censorship that has grown increasingly ruthless over the past decade.

AI Summary. Across surveyed countries, intended fertility and the ideal number of children both declined, while children came to be seen more as a constraint on parental freedom and less as a source of status. Gender roles grew less traditional and housework more equally shared, yet the belief that a fulfilled life requires children weakened most of all attitudes measured.

Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Fernández et al. cast doubt on Goldin’s hypothesis that men’s limited willingness to share domestic responsibilities is central to fertility decline, pointing instead to the erosion of the belief that children are necessary for a fulfilling life.

Are shifting attitudes about children behind falling fertility intentions?

Core argument: Intended fertility fell in every Generations and Gender Survey country, from 28% to 21% on average, while the ideal number of children fell in 17 of 22 International Social Survey Programme countries, from 2.42 to 2.31.

Figure 1 documents how fertility outcomes and attitudes changed over the decade. Intended fertility fell in every GGS country, from 28 to 21% on average (Figure 1a). The ideal number of children fell in 17 of the 22 ISSP countries, from 2.42 to 2.31 on average (Figure 1b). [Children] became more likely to be seen as constraining parental freedom and less likely to be seen as conferring status (Figure 1c). Gender roles became less traditional, and the division of household work became more equal [Figures 1i]. Despite this greater sharing of chores and care, work–family conflict rose sharply. The decade saw changes that might have been expected to make the burden of children lighter, at least for women. Simultaneously, however, children became less attractive and, above all, less necessary: the belief that a fulfilled life requires children lost more ground than any attitude we measure [Table 2, Part II, Panel B].

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Intended fertility fell in every Generations and Gender Survey country, from 28% to 21% on average, while the ideal number of children fell in 17 of 22 International Social Survey Programme countries, from 2.42 to 2.31.
  2. Children became more likely to be seen as constraining parental freedom and less likely to be seen as conferring status, and the belief that a fulfilled life requires children lost more ground than any other attitude measured.
  3. Gender roles became less traditional and household work was divided more equally, yet work–family conflict rose sharply.

AI Summary. A survey finds more than half of young men gamble, with 23% doing so daily, and 43% watch pornography daily or several times a week. 42% say the statement "I am inclined to think that I am a failure" describes them very or somewhat well, a view more common among daily gamblers (66%) and daily pornography viewers (63%).

Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

An ISF survey of 2,000 American men aged 18–29 found 23% reported gambling daily and 27% watch pornography daily. 66% of the men who gambled daily reported feeling like a failure, as well as 63% of the men who watch pornography daily.

Do daily gambling and pornography use correlate with young men's self-perceived failure?

Core argument: More than half of young men surveyed gamble, with 23% gambling daily, 12% more than several times a week, and 21% at least some of the time.

More than half of young men in our survey are now gamblers. Nearly 1 in 4 (23%) report that they gamble daily, plus 12% doing so more than several times a week, and a further 21% at least some of the time. 43% of young men say they watch pornography daily (27%) or several times a week (16%), with another 26% about weekly or less. More than 4 in 10 young men (42%) believe that the statement “all in all, I am inclined to think that I am a failure” describes them “very well” (15%) or “somewhat well” (27%). Those who view pornography (63%) and gamble (66%) every day—along with day trading and playing fantasy sports—are significantly more inclined to see themselves as a failure.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. More than half of young men surveyed gamble, with 23% gambling daily, 12% more than several times a week, and 21% at least some of the time.
  2. 43% of young men report watching pornography daily (27%) or several times a week (16%), and daily pornography viewers (63%) and daily gamblers (66%) are significantly more inclined to see themselves as failures.

AI Summary. The narrowing gap in unemployment rates between young college graduates and non-graduates appears driven mainly by non-graduates dropping out of the labor force rather than by diplomas losing value, since people not seeking work aren't counted as unemployed. The share of young non-graduates employed is 1.7 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels.

Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Labor force participation is rising for American college graduates aged 25–29, and is now at 89.4% – above its pre-pandemic level. Participation among non-college members of that age cohort is falling; at 78.7%, it is now below its pre-pandemic level.

Is the narrowing unemployment gap driven by non-graduates leaving the workforce?

Core argument: The employment-population ratio for young adults without college degrees is 1.7 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level and trending downward, while the ratio for young college graduates sits near its pre-pandemic level.

The narrowing of [the unemployment gap btw college and non-college workers] in recent years has lent support to narratives that college diplomas are losing their value amid the rise of large language models, the purported return of blue-collar work, and other job market changes. But while it may well be that diplomas have lost value, the recent shrinking of the young-adult education-unemployment gap seems to be driven mainly by a different phenomenon. Growing numbers of young adults without college degrees simply aren’t trying to find work and thus aren’t counted in unemployment calculations. The employment-population ratio for young college grads is not far off from where it was just before the pandemic and seems as if it might be headed upward again after a sharp drop in 2023 and 2024, for non-grads it is 1.7 percentage points lower than before the pandemic and clearly trending downward.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The employment-population ratio for young adults without college degrees is 1.7 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level and trending downward, while the ratio for young college graduates sits near its pre-pandemic level.
  2. The narrowing unemployment gap between young college and non-college workers appears driven mainly by growing numbers of non-graduates who are not seeking work and therefore are not counted as unemployed.
  3. The employment-population ratio for young college graduates fell sharply in 2023 and 2024 and appears as if it might be headed upward again.

AI Summary. Israel is the only affluent democracy where estimated fertility rose over the past generation, from 2.9 births per woman in 1991 to 3 in 2021, driven by a rise in Jewish fertility from about 2.6 in 1995 to 3.1 in 2024. Excluding the Haredi community, fertility among secular, traditional and national-religious Jews averages about 2.5.

Date Posted:

The rise in Israeli Jewish fertility is an exception to the collapse across advanced economies. TFR is 1.9 among secular Jews, 2.1–2.7 among traditional Jews and 3.7 among Dati Jews. Eberstadt suggests mimetics—social imitation—may help explain it.

Is there an affluent democracy where fertility has risen?

Core argument: Israel is the only affluent democracy where estimated total fertility rose over the past generation, edging up from 2.9 in 1991 to 3 in 2021, powered wholly by Jewish fertility rising from about 2.6 in 1995 to 3.1 in 2024.

[Israel is] the lone affluent democracy where national fertility (estimated TFR) actually rose over the past generation (albeit slightly—from 2.9 in 1991 to 3 in 2021). This was powered wholly by a rise in Jewish fertility, from about 2.6 births per woman in 1995 to 3.1 in 2024. In 2022–24 fertility in Israel was over 20% higher for Jews than Muslims. Much has been made of Israel’s extraordinarily prolific Haredi community and its six-plus-children-per-woman estimated TFR. But fertility for the rest of Israeli Jewry is unique for modernity too. For secular, natural-religious and traditional Jews combined, the current average TFR is about 2.5 births per woman. And for secular Israeli Jews, per se, it is almost two births per woman.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Israel is the only affluent democracy where estimated total fertility rose over the past generation, edging up from 2.9 in 1991 to 3 in 2021, powered wholly by Jewish fertility rising from about 2.6 in 1995 to 3.1 in 2024.
  2. Israeli Jewish fertility in 2022–24 ran over 20% higher than Israeli Muslim fertility.
  3. Beyond Israel's Haredi community, whose estimated TFR exceeds six children per woman, secular, natural-religious and traditional Jews combined average about 2.5 births per woman, with secular Israeli Jews alone at almost two.

AI Summary. A large survey found symptoms of cannabis use disorder rose to more than 9% of men and nearly 6% of women, up from about 7% and 5% three years earlier, as cannabis use increased among adults overall. About 30% of cannabis users showed disorder symptoms, versus under 20% of drinkers for alcohol.

Date Posted:

A study of 186,823 Americans found 26% of men and 21% of women reported using cannabis in 2024, up 4 and 3pp respectively from 2021; 9% of men and 6% of women reported symptoms of cannabis use disorder.

Is problem cannabis use rising as more Americans use the drug?

Core argument: More than 9% of men reported symptoms of cannabis use disorder in 2024, up from about 7% in 2021, while prevalence among women rose to nearly 6% from about 5%, according to a large study.

A growing number of Americans say their cannabis use is problematic, according to a large new study [which found] more than 9% of the men reported symptoms of cannabis use disorder in 2024, up from about 7% in 2021. The prevalence of cannabis use disorder also rose among women, increasing to nearly 6% in 2024, up from about 5% in 2021. Symptoms of the disorder include not being able to cut back or quit, or continuing to use the drug despite it leading to interpersonal problems. Overall, cannabis use rose among all adults during this time. In 2024, 26% of men reported using the drug, up from 22% in 2021. Among women, 21% said they used cannabis in 2024, up from nearly 18% in 2021. Of the survey participants who said they used cannabis, about 30% showed symptoms consistent with cannabis use disorder. Those findings suggested that those who used cannabis were at higher risk of developing problematic use than those who drank alcohol, as fewer than 20% of those who reported drinking in the survey showed symptoms of alcohol use disorder.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. More than 9% of men reported symptoms of cannabis use disorder in 2024, up from about 7% in 2021, while prevalence among women rose to nearly 6% from about 5%, according to a large study.
  2. Cannabis use rose among U.S. adults, with 26% of men reporting use in 2024 versus 22% in 2021, and 21% of women versus nearly 18%.
  3. About 30% of survey participants who used cannabis showed symptoms consistent with cannabis use disorder, compared with fewer than 20% of those who reported drinking showing symptoms of alcohol use disorder, suggesting higher risk of problematic use.