Edward Conard

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  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Spain's immigrant and second-generation population totals at least 12m — roughly 25% of the total population — with nearly 40% of children under 5 either immigrants or born to immigrant parents.

Nicholas Eberstadt American Enterprise Institute
Date Posted:

Spain’s population of first and second generation immigrants from Latin America (~5.7mm), and Morocco or other African countries (~2.4mm), accounts for nearly one sixth of Spain’s population. There are ~37mm native Spaniards.

What happens when immigration reshapes a nation's demographic foundation?

Core argument: Spain's first- and second-generation immigrant population totals at least 12 million—roughly 24% of the country's 49 million people—making mass migration a defining structural feature of Spanish society.

Spain’s first and second-generation immigrant population comprises at least 12 million—almost 9.5 million immigrants and over 2.5 million of their descendants. [Spain’s population was ~49mm at the starts of 2025.] Over a third of Spain’s under 40 population are now first or second generation immigrants. And our numbers suggest that nearly two-fifths of Spain’s children under 5 are the children of immigrants, or immigrants themselves. Since our method misses second-generation immigrants not living with their parents, the absolute and relative size of Spain’s mass migration population is likely somewhat greater than we estimate.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Spain's first- and second-generation immigrant population totals at least 12 million—roughly 24% of the country's 49 million people—making mass migration a defining structural feature of Spanish society.
  2. Over one-third of Spain's under-40 population are first- or second-generation immigrants, concentrating demographic transformation most heavily in the cohorts that will drive workforce and electoral outcomes for decades.
  3. Nearly two-fifths of Spain's children under 5 are immigrants or children of immigrants, a share that understates the true figure because second-generation children living independently are excluded from the count.

Related Articles:

  • Quo Vadis, Hispania? Part One — Spain's population growth between 2000 and 2025 was almost entirely (98%) driven by immigration, as natural population increase (births minus deaths) was negligible; since deaths have exceeded births since 2015, all future population growth depends entirely on continued immigration.
  • Four Ways Europe’s Big Immigration Experiment Has Changed Spain — Spain's recent economic growth and job creation have been driven largely by immigration, with roughly 70% of new jobs since 2019 going to immigrants. This reliance reflects a fertility rate of just 1.1 births per woman — the lowest in the EU after Malta — and a domestic workforce increasingly
  • Depopulation Globally and in the Asia-Pacific: The Shape of Things to Come — Nicholas Eberstadt warns that depopulation will stress families as smaller families “become ever less able to bear weight—even as the demands that might…
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