“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute

For whatever topics you select (currently: Unemployment/Participation):

Include articles that mention this topic 340

Only articles primarily about this topic 96

AI Is Simultaneously Aiding and Replacing Workers, Wage Data Suggest

J. Scott Davis Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Date Posted:: February 24, 2026
Is Database:: Database

For occupations with a very low experience premium, AI exposure lowered wage growth, likely due to substitution of AI for costly experienced workers. At the top of the experience distribution, AI raised wage growth, as it complements experienced workers.

Chart 5 presents the estimated effect of a one-standard-deviation (1 SD) increase in an occupation’s AI exposure on an occupation’s post-2022 wage growth. For occupations with the median experience premium (40%), a 1 SD increase in AI exposure is associated with a 0.05ppt decline in wage growth. The 90% confidence interval for this estimate clearly includes zero, indicating that for an occupation with the median experience premium, AI exposure doesn’t much affect wage growth. However, for an occupation with a 0% experience premium, increased AI exposure is associated with a 0.28 percentage point reduction in wage growth. The confidence interval for this estimate is clearly negative. For occupations with a very low experience premium, AI exposure has a more negative effect on wage growth since AI substitutes for both entry and experienced workers. The low experience premium suggests there is not much tacit knowledge required for the occupation, so experienced workers are easily substituted by AI. Conversely, for occupations in the 90th percentile of the experience premium distribution, increased AI exposure is associated with a 0.2 percentage point increase in wage growth. For these occupations, AI exposure has less of a negative effect, and likely even a positive effect on wages, as AI substitutes for entry level workers but complements experienced workers.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

For occupations with a 0% experience premium, a 1 SD increase in AI exposure is associated with a 0.28 percentage point reduction in post-2022 wage growth, with a clearly negative confidence interval.
For occupations in the 90th percentile of the experience premium distribution, a 1 SD increase in AI exposure is associated with a 0.2 percentage point increase in wage growth, consistent with AI substituting for entry-level workers while complementing experienced ones.
At the median experience premium of 40%, a 1 SD increase in AI exposure is associated with a 0.05 percentage point decline in wage growth, and the 90% confidence interval includes zero.

On Europe’s Economy, Let’s Ditch The Lazy Stereotypes

Chris Giles Financial Times

Date Posted:: September 10, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

Despite Europe’s high social spending relative to the US, Chris Giles notes that prime-age adult (25–54) labor force participation in the Eurozone has overtaken that of the US, and there has been a dramatic convergence in the LFP of older workers.

It does not matter whether you use EU or Eurozone data, prime-age adults (between 25 and 54) in Europe are more likely to be in work than those in the US. Older people (between 55 and 64) also have higher employment rates in Europe. Younger people (between 15 and 24) are more likely to have a job in the US, but that results from Europeans educating themselves for longer. The proportion of young people not in education, employment or training is higher in the US than in Europe. So welfare is not stopping work. More than that, the higher-welfare north of Europe tends to have higher employment rates than the south, although there is convergence within the Eurozone. Spain, in particular, has enjoyed rapid improvements.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Prime-age adults aged 25–54 in Europe are more likely to be employed than their US counterparts, whether measured with EU or Eurozone data, and Europeans aged 55–64 also have higher employment rates than Americans.
Young people aged 15–24 are more likely to have a job in the US than in Europe, but that gap results from Europeans spending longer in education, and the share not in education, employment or training is higher in the US.
The higher-welfare north of Europe tends to have higher employment rates than the south, with convergence within the Eurozone and rapid improvement in Spain.

The Jobs Apocalypse Is Postponed. An AI Jobs Boom Is Here

Economist Staff The Economist

Date Posted:: September 9, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

The Economist estimates that so far the AI boom has created ~1mm new jobs in the US, exceeding their estimate of ~200,000 layoffs attributed to AI since mid-2023.

[We] tracked five industries at the heart of the data-centre build-out, from electrical contracting to equipment manufacturing. Since 2023 employment in them has risen by roughly 320,000 more than broader construction and manufacturing trends would suggest. Not all of those jobs owe their existence to AI—grid upgrades and other factory building matters too. [We also] tracked employment in professional occupations closest to the AI boom—engineers, software developers, mathematicians and data scientists—and compared their growth since 2022 with professional employment overall. These roles have added roughly 730,000 jobs above trend in recent years. AI will not have created every single one of them. But it has almost certainly created quite a few.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Employment in five industries tied to the data-centre build-out, from electrical contracting to equipment manufacturing, has risen by roughly 320,000 more since 2023 than broader construction and manufacturing trends would suggest.
Professional occupations closest to the AI boom—engineers, software developers, mathematicians and data scientists—have added roughly 730,000 jobs above the trend for professional employment overall since 2022.
Not all of these above-trend gains are attributable to AI, since grid upgrades and other factory building also matter, though AI has almost certainly created quite a few of them.

Americans Without College Degrees Are Having One of the Best Job Markets in Years

Theo Francis and Ray Smith Wall Street Journal

Date Posted:: September 8, 2026
Is Database:: Database

In 2026, the 12-month moving-average unemployment for college-educated 22–34-year-olds is above its post-2003 mean, while the rate for non-college peers is historically low. Prime-age college grads still have lower unemployment than those with no degree.

The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 who never graduated from college has rarely been lower in the past two decades. To gauge how the job market has shifted for each cohort, [Gad Levanon, Burning Glass’s chief economist] compared current unemployment rates for the different groups with their own range of unemployment rates since 2003. The analysis included data through July. By that measure, the job market looks much better for blue-collar workers, including those in construction and on manufacturing lines, and manual-service workers. It is [however] still easier to find a job with a college degree. The unemployment rate for degree-holders in their prime working years—ages 25 to 54—averaged 2.7% for the 12 months ending in July - well below the 3.6% rate for workers with just some college education, and 4.7% for people with a high-school diploma only.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 who never graduated from college has rarely been lower in the past two decades, based on data through July.
Burning Glass chief economist Gad Levanon compared each cohort's current unemployment rate against its own range since 2003, and by that measure the job market looks much better for blue-collar workers in construction and manufacturing and for manual-service workers.
College graduates ages 25 to 54 averaged a 2.7% unemployment rate for the 12 months ending in July, below the 3.6% rate for workers with some college education and 4.7% for those with only a high-school diploma.

What’s Behind the Declining Trend Unemployment Rate?

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, Greeshma Avaradi and Taerin Kim Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Date Posted:: August 26, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Hornstein et al find that about half of the ~3pp drop in the trend unemployment rate since 1976 is due to compositional change in the work force towards lower unemployment “types ” – in particular, older and more educated workers.

We find that the trend unemployment rate declined from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024 [Figure 1]. Roughly half of that decline reflects compositional change. Figure 2 separates the estimated cumulative change in the annual unemployment trend since 1976 into its components. The total decline was about 3.3 percentage points by 2024. Changes in workforce composition account for a little more than half of that decline. Rising educational attainment is the single largest compositional force, lowering the trend about 1pp. Figure 4 plots estimated education shares for entering cohorts of women, and these patterns are similar for male cohorts (not shown). The figure shows a steady long-run fall in the share of new female cohorts with less than high school education and a steady rise in the share with some college or a college degree. [Returning to Figure 2], changes in group-specific LFP rate trends contribute only ~0.3 pp. The remaining decline, a bit under 1pp, comes from lower group-specific trend unemployment.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The estimated trend unemployment rate fell from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024, a decline of about 3.3 percentage points, with changes in workforce composition accounting for a little more than half of it.
Rising educational attainment is the single largest compositional force in the decomposition, lowering the trend unemployment rate by about 1 percentage point.
Changes in group-specific labor force participation rate trends contribute about 0.3 percentage point of the decline, while lower group-specific trend unemployment accounts for a bit under 1 percentage point.

College Grads Struggle to Find Jobs. Non-Grads Are Giving Up

Justin Fox Bloomberg

Date Posted:: August 25, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Labor force participation is rising for American college graduates aged 25–29, and is now at 89.4% – above its pre-pandemic level. Participation among non-college members of that age cohort is falling; at 78.7%, it is now below its pre-pandemic level.

The narrowing of [the unemployment gap btw college and non-college workers] in recent years has lent support to narratives that college diplomas are losing their value amid the rise of large language models, the purported return of blue-collar work, and other job market changes. But while it may well be that diplomas have lost value, the recent shrinking of the young-adult education-unemployment gap seems to be driven mainly by a different phenomenon. Growing numbers of young adults without college degrees simply aren’t trying to find work and thus aren’t counted in unemployment calculations. The employment-population ratio for young college grads is not far off from where it was just before the pandemic and seems as if it might be headed upward again after a sharp drop in 2023 and 2024, for non-grads it is 1.7 percentage points lower than before the pandemic and clearly trending downward.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The employment-population ratio for young adults without college degrees is 1.7 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level and trending downward, while the ratio for young college graduates sits near its pre-pandemic level.
The narrowing unemployment gap between young college and non-college workers appears driven mainly by growing numbers of non-graduates who are not seeking work and therefore are not counted as unemployed.
The employment-population ratio for young college graduates fell sharply in 2023 and 2024 and appears as if it might be headed upward again.

The Big Exceptions To The American Manufacturing Jobs Decline

Jiaxin (Jason) He Agglomerations

Date Posted:: July 24, 2026
Is Database:: Database

The US has lost 300,000 manufacturing jobs since their recent peak in Q2 2023. Two subsectors have seen strong job growth: aerospace manufacturing added 43,000 jobs, and electrical equipment, cable and battery manufacturing added 36,200.

Aerospace leads all manufacturing industries in job growth since 2023. Last year it also posted the largest nominal trade surplus of any manufacturing industry, at $116.7 billion. Driving the growth has been strong commercial and passenger airline demand, including a record-high order backlog. Boeing, the world’s leading airplane manufacturer, returned to profitability and high delivery volumes in 2025. The employment surge in the electrical components subsector tells a different story. It owes its strength to two industries: electrical equipment manufacturing and batteries, wires, cables, and miscellaneous electrical components. These are among the industries that bore the brunt of the China Shock and suffered acute decline in the 2000s. Green energy and electric vehicles likely contributed to their initial recovery, raising demand for batteries and electrical infrastructure. But their continued growth even after the cancellation of EV subsidies in 2025 points to a different, potent, and entirely unsurprising driver: Artificial Intelligence. AI’s manufacturing footprint runs the length of the supply chain. Dedicated data centers more than doubled their real consumption of electrical equipment and components from 2019 to 2024.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Aerospace leads all U.S. manufacturing industries in job growth since 2023 and posted the largest nominal trade surplus of any manufacturing industry last year, at $116.7 billion.
Strong commercial and passenger airline demand, including a record-high order backlog, has driven aerospace growth, and Boeing returned to profitability and high delivery volumes in 2025.
Employment growth in electrical equipment manufacturing and in batteries, wires, cables, and miscellaneous electrical components continued after the 2025 cancellation of EV subsidies, pointing to artificial intelligence as a driver, with dedicated data centers more than doubling real consumption of electrical equipment and components from 2019 to 2024.

For occupations with a very low experience premium, AI exposure lowered wage growth, likely due to substitution of AI for costly experienced workers. At the top of the experience distribution, AI raised wage growth, as it complements experienced workers.

How does AI exposure affect wage growth across experience premiums?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Despite Europe’s high social spending relative to the US, Chris Giles notes that prime-age adult (25–54) labor force participation in the Eurozone has overtaken that of the US, and there has been a dramatic convergence in the LFP of older workers.

Do Europeans work less than Americans?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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The Economist estimates that so far the AI boom has created ~1mm new jobs in the US, exceeding their estimate of ~200,000 layoffs attributed to AI since mid-2023.

Is the AI build-out adding jobs above trend?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

In 2026, the 12-month moving-average unemployment for college-educated 22–34-year-olds is above its post-2003 mean, while the rate for non-college peers is historically low. Prime-age college grads still have lower unemployment than those with no degree.

Is the job market unusually strong for workers without college degrees?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Hornstein et al find that about half of the ~3pp drop in the trend unemployment rate since 1976 is due to compositional change in the work force towards lower unemployment “types ” – in particular, older and more educated workers.

Why has the trend unemployment rate declined over recent decades?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Labor force participation is rising for American college graduates aged 25–29, and is now at 89.4% – above its pre-pandemic level. Participation among non-college members of that age cohort is falling; at 78.7%, it is now below its pre-pandemic level.

Is the narrowing unemployment gap driven by non-graduates leaving the workforce?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

The US has lost 300,000 manufacturing jobs since their recent peak in Q2 2023. Two subsectors have seen strong job growth: aerospace manufacturing added 43,000 jobs, and electrical equipment, cable and battery manufacturing added 36,200.

Which US manufacturing industries are adding jobs despite the overall decline?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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