Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Among young labor market entrants, the rate of finding jobs has held steady only in occupations with low exposure to artificial intelligence, declining by more than 3 percentage points for the most AI-exposed group from its recent peak. The decline reflects fewer people entering these jobs rather than exits, with small aggregate effects.

Tyler Atkinson and Shane Yamco Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Date Posted:

The job-finding rate for workers aged 20–24 in the occupations most exposed to AI has declined by more than 3pp since its peak in November 2023, while the separation rate has not risen.

Is AI reducing job finding rates for young workers?

Core argument: The job finding rate for young, most AI-exposed workers has declined by more than 3 percentage points since its November 2023 peak, while holding steady for jobs with low AI exposure.

Among young labor market entrants, the job finding rate has held steady only for jobs with low AI exposure, while it has declined for groups with higher AI exposure since November 2022. Since its recent peak in November 2023, the job finding rate of the young, most AI-exposed group has declined by more than 3 percentage points. Looking at past business cycles, the data confirm this isn’t a typical cyclical phenomenon. Thus far, lower employment in high AI exposure occupations for young workers is mainly driven by a lower inflow, particularly among those out of the labor force, rather than by an outflow. There appears to be lower employment for young workers in occupations with the most exposure to AI, but so far, the aggregate impacts are small and subtle. If all the decline in employment for the young, most AI-exposed workers translated into unemployment, it would be responsible for only a 0.1 percentage point rise in aggregate unemployment since November 2022.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The job finding rate for young, most AI-exposed workers has declined by more than 3 percentage points since its November 2023 peak, while holding steady for jobs with low AI exposure.
  2. Lower employment for young workers in high-AI-exposure occupations is driven mainly by lower inflow, particularly among those out of the labor force, rather than by outflow from employment.
  3. If the entire employment decline among young, most AI-exposed workers became unemployment, it would account for only a 0.1 percentage point rise in aggregate unemployment since November 2022.

Related Articles:

  • AI and Jobs: The Final Word (Until the Next One) — Unemployment has risen by 0.30 percentage points for the fifth of workers most exposed to artificial intelligence, compared with 0.94 percentage points for the least exposed fifth, leaving no visible AI effect on jobs. The share of workers leaving the labor force within a year is lowest among the most AI-exposed workers and roughly flat.
  • Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence — Using payroll records covering millions of US workers, the authors find employment for workers aged 22–25 in occupations most exposed to artificial intelligence, such as software developers and customer service representatives, declined 6%, while employment for older workers in those occupations rose 6–9%. Employment in less-exposed occupations grew comparably across age groups.
  • Jobless Growth — Labor demand growth may be too weak to keep pace with even modest labor supply growth: the labor market is somewhat weaker than before the pandemic, job growth has turned negative outside healthcare, and firms are focused on using AI to cut labor costs. Economists estimate most employment losses in routine manual occupations since the 1970s occurred during recessions.
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