Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. The Congressional Budget Office projects the federal deficit will grow from $1.9tn (5.8% of GDP) to $3.1tn (6.7%) over a decade, above the 3.8% averaged over the past 50 years, with rising net interest costs driving much of the increase. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 101% to 120% of GDP.

Devrim Demirel, Daniel Fried, Jaeger Nelson, and John Seliski Congressional Budget Office
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CBO projects a deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2026, unchanged from 2025. Outlays, at 23.3% of GDP, will exceed their 50-year mean by 2.1pp; revenue of 17.5% is just 0.2pp above its long-term mean.

How large will federal deficits and debt grow over the decade?

Core argument: CBO projects the federal deficit will rise from $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 to $3.1 trillion in 2036, equal to 5.8% of GDP growing to 6.7%, compared with the 3.8% average of the past 50 years.

In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 is $1.9 trillion and grows to $3.1 trillion by 2036. Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit is 5.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 and grows to 6.7% in 2036, which is greater than the 3.8% deficits averaged over the past 50 years. Rising net interest costs drive much of that increase. The primary deficit, which excludes those net interest costs, totals 2.6% of GDP this year and stays below that level through 2036, when it totals 2.1%. From 2026 to 2036, large and growing deficits cause debt to increase. Federal debt held by the public rises from 101% of GDP this year to 120 percent in 2036, surpassing its previous high of 106% of GDP in 1946.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. CBO projects the federal deficit will rise from $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 to $3.1 trillion in 2036, equal to 5.8% of GDP growing to 6.7%, compared with the 3.8% average of the past 50 years.
  2. CBO attributes much of the projected deficit increase to rising net interest costs; the primary deficit excluding those costs is 2.6% of GDP in 2026 and stays below that level through 2036, when it totals 2.1%.
  3. CBO projects federal debt held by the public will rise from 101% of GDP in 2026 to 120% in 2036, surpassing the previous high of 106% of GDP in 1946.

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  • Our Thoughts on Large US Deficits and Their Impact on Bond Yields — Total borrowing in the US is about average despite high government deficits, as high public borrowing has contributed to the need for higher interest rates that have depressed private sector borrowing. Risk premiums on long-dated debt look about average, with no market signs that economic or debt limits are currently being hit.
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