Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds rose to as high as 5.34%, its highest level since 2007, amid investor concern over rising government spending, heavy sales of long-dated bonds, and inflation that has run above the Federal Reserve's target for five years. Long-term yields also rose in Canada and Europe.

Greg Ritchie Bloomberg
Date Posted:

The 30-year Treasury yield climbed more than 5bps to as high as 5.34%, its highest level since 2007.

Are rising government spending and inflation pushing long-term yields higher?

Core argument: The 30-year US Treasury yield rose five basis points to as high as 5.34%, surpassing the prior month's high and reaching its highest level since 2007.

The yield on 30-year US Treasuries hit the highest in almost two decades, reflecting investor angst over surging government spending, a flood of long-dated bond sales, and inflation that has been stuck over the Federal Reserve’s target for the past five years. The interest rate on the so-called long bond rose five basis points to as high as 5.34%, surpassing a high from last month to reach the loftiest since 2007. The move was echoed in the Canadian bond market, where the yield on 30-year securities rose to the highest since 2010, as well as in those in Europe.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The 30-year US Treasury yield rose five basis points to as high as 5.34%, surpassing the prior month's high and reaching its highest level since 2007.
  2. The long-bond selloff reflects investor angst over surging government spending, a flood of long-dated bond sales, and inflation stuck above the Federal Reserve's target for the past five years.
  3. Canada's 30-year bond yield rose to its highest since 2010, with European long-dated yields echoing the move.

Related Articles:

  • AI Is Driving Up Treasury Yields: ‘It Just Touches Everything’ — Investment-grade companies have sold nearly $1.5tn of bonds, up 36% from a year earlier, and some investors have sold US Treasuries to buy higher-yielding corporate debt. Bank of America economists estimate the surge in corporate-debt sales, along with more mortgage-backed securities issuance, pushed 10-year rates up by about 0.3 percentage point.
  • U.S. Treasury Investors Are Long in AI — The authors find U.S. government debt has a large positive productivity beta, because the tax code makes federal revenue highly sensitive to productivity growth while spending commitments change little, leaving bondholders implicitly long productivity growth. They argue greater market confidence in sustained productivity gains from AI could substantially reprice government debt, lowering nominal yields.
  • The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 — The Congressional Budget Office projects the federal deficit will grow from $1.9tn (5.8% of GDP) to $3.1tn (6.7%) over a decade, above the 3.8% averaged over the past 50 years, with rising net interest costs driving much of the increase. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 101% to 120% of GDP.
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