Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Unemployment in occupations exposed to artificial intelligence rose to 3.8% from 3%, a larger increase than the 0.3 percentage point rise in the national rate, while unemployment in non-exposed occupations edged lower. The rise is concentrated among workers aged 34 and under, whose jobless rate jumped to 5.3% from 3%.

Bernard Yaros and Matthew Martin Oxford Economics
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Unemployment is rising more rapidly in AI-exposed occupations relative to non-exposed occupations, especially among younger workers. One driver of this is a rising supply of workers due to an uptick in participation.

Is unemployment rising faster in AI-exposed occupations, especially for younger workers?

Core argument: Unemployment in AI-exposed occupations rose to 3.8% in December 2025 from 3% in January, a sharper increase than the 0.3ppt rise in the national rate, while unemployment in non-exposed occupations edged slightly lower, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics microdata.

Using microdata from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we split employment into two groups – AI-exposed and non-exposed occupations – and calculate separate unemployment rates (Chart 8). The jobless rate for AI-exposed occupations is lower than the overall unemployment rate but has risen to 3.8% in December 2025 from 3% in January, a sharper increase than the 0.3ppt rise in the national rate over the same period. Meanwhile, unemployment in non-exposed occupations has edged slightly lower. For more seasoned professionals in AI-exposed occupations – those 35 years and over – the rise in unemployment has been modest and consistent with the gradual softening in broader labor-market conditions over the past three years, rather than indicative of an AI-driven shock (Chart 9). The increase has been more pronounced among workers aged 34 and lower, where the unemployment rate has jumped to 5.3% in December from 3% at the beginning of 2025. The data are noisy, and younger workers are usually more sensitive to weakening labor market conditions. But we tested this relationship and the recent increase in unemployment for younger workers is larger than we'd expect given the rise in the national unemployment rate.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Unemployment in AI-exposed occupations rose to 3.8% in December 2025 from 3% in January, a sharper increase than the 0.3ppt rise in the national rate, while unemployment in non-exposed occupations edged slightly lower, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics microdata.
  2. Among AI-exposed workers aged 34 and under, the unemployment rate jumped to 5.3% in December from 3% at the beginning of 2025, larger than would be expected given the rise in the national unemployment rate.
  3. For AI-exposed workers aged 35 and over, the rise in unemployment has been modest and consistent with the gradual softening in broader labor-market conditions over the past three years, rather than indicative of an AI-driven shock.

Related Articles:

  • Looking for the Ladder — The article argues that the hiring downturn in occupations most exposed to generative AI reflects interest-rate sensitivity rather than AI itself, since roughly 38% of workers in the most AI-exposed quintile work in information, finance and insurance, and professional and technical services, versus under 2% in the least-exposed quintile.
  • Unprecedented ‘Jobless Boom’ Tests Limits of US Economic Expansion — Forecasters expect US gross domestic product to have expanded 2.7% over the year while employment barely grew, a divergence drawing comparisons to the "jobless recovery" that followed the early-2000s technology stock collapse. Unlike that episode, which began with a recession, this "jobless boom" is occurring without one — a first in the postwar era.
  • What Sweeping Revisions and a Blowout Month Tell Us About the U.S. Job Market — Labor Department revisions lowered previously estimated job gains for the past two calendar years, cutting the combined net change in construction, manufacturing, and retail by 115,000 jobs. Healthcare added about 437,000 jobs and social assistance about 321,000 over 12 months, while all other private-sector jobs combined shrank.
Showing 96 database articles primarily about Unemployment/Participation