Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Global bond yields are rising and markets are differentiating between high- and low-debt countries, with the smallest cumulative yield increases relative to the global average in Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, New Zealand and Australia. The author argues this price action shows investors are agitated about deficits and debt.

Robin Brooks Robin Brooks Substack
Date Posted:

Brooks argues rising yields in advanced economies this year are driven by market’s “high alert” regarding debt. The highest cumulative rise in yields this year is in high-debt countries, and yields have risen on days with debt-related bad news.

Are rising bond yields showing investor concern about government debt?

Core argument: Global bond markets are differentiating between high- and low-debt countries as yields rise, with Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, New Zealand and Australia showing the lowest cumulative yield increases this year relative to a global average.

Markets are on high alert, which they wouldn’t be if they weren’t worried about debt. Markets are aggressively differentiating between high- and low-debt countries as global yields rise. The lowest cumulative rise in yields this year (relative to a global average) is in Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, New Zealand and Australia. High-frequency price action tells us exactly what markets think and they’re clearly agitated about deficits and debt. When Japan’s Takaichi said in January that she was done with “excessive” fiscal austerity, long-term yields spiked sharply. In fact, that spike was so big that it caused global contagion, with the NY Fed doing its infamous “rate check” a few days later to keep the Yen from collapsing. Then there's the US Treasury's surprise buyback announcement on August 19, which tanked the Dollar as precious metals rose.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Global bond markets are differentiating between high- and low-debt countries as yields rise, with Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, New Zealand and Australia showing the lowest cumulative yield increases this year relative to a global average.
  2. Japanese long-term yields spiked sharply after Takaichi said in January she was done with "excessive" fiscal austerity, a move large enough to cause global contagion and prompt the New York Fed's "rate check" days later to keep the Yen from collapsing.
  3. The US Treasury's surprise buyback announcement on August 19 tanked the Dollar while precious metals rose.

Related Articles:

  • Global Debt Report 2026 — Gross central government borrowing across OECD countries rose 7% to a record $17tn, about 23% of GDP, and is projected to reach roughly $18tn, or 24% of GDP. The United States and Japan account for close to 80% of the area's refinancing requirements, with the US share rising from 57% to 70%.
  • The Coming Great Repression? — Across countries and over time, higher public debt burdens are associated with lower relative returns on government bonds, the opposite of standard risk-premium predictions. The authors estimate financial repression—making banks captive bond buyers and loading them with low-return reserves—contributed 90.7 percentage points of GDP to Britain's postwar debt reduction, versus 20.3 from surprise inflation.
  • Rising Bond Yields Are Good, Actually — Interest rates remain low relative to reasonable expectations of inflation and growth, with incomes and spending rising about 7% a year in dollar terms. Absent idle workers, machines, and materials, higher rates can help shift resources toward business equipment and nonresidential construction by discouraging consumer spending and housing or attracting foreign goods and services today.
Showing 246 database articles primarily about Financial Markets