Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Across 12 middle-income countries, call-center employment grew in line with other white-collar office work before the spread of AI chatbots but has since stagnated or declined even as other white-collar jobs held up. The authors argue this divergence makes artificial intelligence's role hard to dismiss.

Caelan Wilkie-Rogers Revelio Labs
Date Posted:

A Revelio Labs analysis finds global call center employment is now 5.3% under its December 2023 peak. Call center employment started diverging from other white collar work in middle income countries around November 2022, when ChatGPT was released.

Is AI reducing call center employment in middle-income countries?

Core argument: Across 12 middle-income countries, call-center employment showed sluggish growth or outright declines after ChatGPT’s release, while other white-collar office and administrative roles remained fairly robust.

Across the 12 middle-income countries, the pattern is recognizable: in the pre-ChatGPT era, call-center headcount generally kept pace with other office and administrative, "white-collar" roles. In the post-ChatGPT era, we see sluggish growth or outright declines in call centers—even as the rest of white-collar work looks fairly robust. So, although we cannot observe which firms replace people with chatbots, this divergence in headcounts between call centers and the rest of their labor markets makes AI’s potential role in this trend hard to wave off. Moreover, call centers’ high-volume, scripted work is exactly the profile the International Labour Organization flags as most exposed in these countries. The industry is shrinking because hiring slowed, not because separations picked up.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Across 12 middle-income countries, call-center employment showed sluggish growth or outright declines after ChatGPT’s release, while other white-collar office and administrative roles remained fairly robust.
  2. Before ChatGPT, call-center headcount in these 12 middle-income countries generally kept pace with other office and administrative employment.
  3. The ILO flags high-volume, scripted work—the profile of call-center jobs—as most exposed in these middle-income countries, though which firms replace workers with chatbots cannot be observed.

Related Articles:

  • AI’s Most Exposed Industry Keeps Hiring — Call center employment in the Philippines has reached nearly 2m workers and has grown every year since 2016, including through the artificial intelligence boom. As AI lowers the cost per customer interaction, companies are buying more of these services rather than fewer — an example of Jevons paradox.
  • Looking for the Ladder — The article argues that the hiring downturn in occupations most exposed to generative AI reflects interest-rate sensitivity rather than AI itself, since roughly 38% of workers in the most AI-exposed quintile work in information, finance and insurance, and professional and technical services, versus under 2% in the least-exposed quintile.
  • The Early Impacts of AI on Employment among Recent College Graduates — An expanded unemployment measure for young college graduates — including those outside the labor force who report wanting a job — averaged 10.4% in the most recent summer, the highest of the five summers compared and 0.3 percentage points above the prior high. Estimated associations with occupational AI exposure are positive but not statistically significant.
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