Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. U.S. diesel prices have reached a record $6.06 per gallon, surpassing the previous record of $5.82 set after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Diesel's central role in freight, agriculture, and food transport is feeding producer price inflation at a critical harvest season, squeezing farm margins on fuel and fertilizer costs.

Stephanie Findlay and Jamie Smyth Financial Times
Date Posted:

US retail diesel prices have climbed to an all-time nominal high of $6.06 per gallon. The previous nominal high in January 2022 would be $6.54 in current dollars.

Does diesel supply shock threaten farm profitability during harvest season?

Core argument: U.S. diesel prices hit a record $6.06/gallon, surpassing the prior peak of $5.82 set after Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion, as an Iran-driven supply shock tightens global fuel markets.

The diesel pump price has surged this year and rose to $6.06 on Friday, motorist group AAA said, above the previous record high of $5.82 in 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Diesel’s critical role in the transport supply chain is also feeding into surging producer prices, which can stoke inflationary pressures at a time when Americans increasingly feel squeezed by affordability. The jump in diesel comes ahead of the autumn high season, where the fuel is used to power agricultural equipment to harvest and transport crops. Grain farmers in America’s Corn Belt have said they are facing a crisis with rising fuel and fertiliser prices eating into profits.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. diesel prices hit a record $6.06/gallon, surpassing the prior peak of $5.82 set after Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion, as an Iran-driven supply shock tightens global fuel markets.
  2. Diesel’s central role in freight and logistics transmits the price surge directly into producer prices, amplifying inflationary pressure on an already cost-squeezed American consumer.
  3. The price spike arrives ahead of the autumn harvest season, compounding input-cost pressure on Corn Belt grain farmers already facing a profit squeeze from elevated fuel and fertilizer costs.

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  • US Diesel Prices Soar To Record High — U.S. diesel prices have reached a record $5.85 per gallon, surpassing the previous record set after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Prices face further upward pressure from harvest season demand, early winter heating needs, and planned refinery maintenance, with transportation and agriculture accounting for the majority of diesel consumption.
  • U.S. Economy Less Vulnerable To Geopolitical Oil Price Shocks Than In The Past — Kilian, et al find that the impact of an energy shock on US real GDP growth has fallen to 1/20th of what it would have been in 1980, due both to the declining…
  • Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026 — As measured by useful final energy consumption in 2024, nuclear provided 6% of America’s 44.5 exajoules, renewables 9%, and fossil fuels 85%. The corresponding…

AI Summary. U.S. diesel prices have reached a record $5.85 per gallon, surpassing the previous record set after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Prices face further upward pressure from harvest season demand, early winter heating needs, and planned refinery maintenance, with transportation and agriculture accounting for the majority of diesel consumption.

Malcolm Moore Financial Times
Date Posted:

US retail diesel prices have climbed to an all-time nominal high of $5.85 per gallon. The previous nominal high in January 2022 would be $6.54 in current dollars.

Are record diesel prices threatening transportation and agriculture costs?

Core argument: With roughly 75% of U.S. diesel consumed by transportation and trucking, the record price feeds directly into goods costs across virtually every supply chain in the economy.

[Diesel] pump prices hit an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever on Friday, according to the American Automobile Association, eclipsing the previous record level that was reached in the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. From October, diesel is likely to be squeezed further by the harvest season, early winter heating demand and planned maintenance by US refineries. About three-quarters of diesel in the US is used for transportation and trucking goods, and the fuel is also essential for agriculture, powering much of the farm equipment used in the upcoming harvest season.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

    1. With roughly 75% of U.S. diesel consumed by transportation and trucking, the record price feeds directly into goods costs across virtually every supply chain in the economy.
    2. Harvest-season demand, early winter heating requirements, and planned refinery maintenance converging in October point to further diesel price increases beyond the record level already reached.

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AI Summary. Wholesale diesel prices jumped ~7% to $4.71/gallon following U.S. air strikes on Iran, threatening higher costs for American industry, agriculture, and consumers. The White House convened major refiners — including Chevron, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum — to pressure the industry to contain fuel price inflation.

Stephanie Findlay, Claire Jones and Jamie Smyth Financial Times
Date Posted:

Wholesale diesel for sale in New York harbor has risen ~7% to $4.71, largely reflecting a record-high “crack” spread, the premium of diesel over crude. US refinery utilisation had been at or above 95% for 12 consecutive weeks, the longest streak since 2000.

Does refinery pressure work when geopolitical shocks drive diesel prices up?

Core argument: Wholesale diesel at New York harbour surged nearly 7% to $4.71/gallon following U.S. air strikes on Iran, with pass-through to consumer fuel costs arriving months before congressional elections—prompting the White House to summon major refiners including Marathon Petroleum, Chevron, and Valero.

Wholesale diesel for sale in New York harbour jumped almost 7% to $4.71 a gallon after the US president ordered extensive air strikes on Iran. Diesel powers American industry and agriculture and the wholesale contract’s price surge will translate into higher consumer costs just months ahead of congressional elections. Trump on Tuesday held talks with industry in the White House to press them to beat back the fuel price inflation. Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, Chevron, Delek US Holdings, PBF Energy and Valero Energy were among the companies summoned to Washington, according to people with knowledge of the event.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Wholesale diesel at New York harbour surged nearly 7% to $4.71/gallon following U.S. air strikes on Iran, with pass-through to consumer fuel costs arriving months before congressional elections—prompting the White House to summon major refiners including Marathon Petroleum, Chevron, and Valero.

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AI Summary. Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to 15–16m barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the upward pressure on global crude prices.

Yongchang Chin Bloomberg
Date Posted:

A GS analysis finds oil exports from the Gulf have risen to 15–16mm bpd, ~ 2/3 of pre-war levels; 8–10mm bpd – about half of pre-war levels – transit through Hormuz.

Are Gulf oil exports constraining global crude price increases?

Core argument: Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to 15–16 million barrels per day—roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels—limiting the Iran conflict’s upward pressure on global crude prices, according to Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby.

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran war’s impact on global crude prices, according to Goldman Sachs. Total exports of crude and oil products from the region have risen to 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, helped by higher crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in a note. That’s still 7 to 8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels, but well above a trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels a day in March. Oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz alone are likely close to US officials’ 8 million to 10 million barrel a day estimates, the analysts said.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to 15–16 million barrels per day—roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels—limiting the Iran conflict’s upward pressure on global crude prices, according to Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby.
  2. Gulf exports remain 7–8 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels but have more than doubled from a March trough of 5–6 million barrels per day, driven by increased Strait of Hormuz crossings now estimated at 8–10 million barrels per day.

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AI Summary. Iran's economy is contracting at its fastest rate in roughly 40 years, with inflation above 50%, food costs doubling year-over-year, and the national currency near worthless.

Javier Blas Bloomberg
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Inflation in Iran is running at at least ~69%, its highest annual rate in 70 years. The black market exchange value of a rial hit a record low of ~1.85mm rials to the dollar, relative to 50,000 per dollar five years ago.

Is economic collapse the only path to ending the conflict?

Core argument: Iran’s inflation rate exceeds 50% annually — the highest in nearly 70 years of records — while food and essential goods costs have doubled year over year, severely compressing household purchasing power across the economy.

[Iran's] economy is on track to suffer the biggest annual contraction since the nadir of the Iran-Iraq War in the mid-1980s. Inflation is running well above 50%, the highest annual rate since records start nearly 70 years ago. Worse, the cost of food and other necessities has already doubled from a year ago. Its currency, the rial, is worthless. In the black market, the exchange rate has collapsed to a record low of about 1.85 million rials to the dollar; five years ago, roughly 50,000 rials were enough to buy a greenback.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Iran’s inflation rate exceeds 50% annually — the highest in nearly 70 years of records — while food and essential goods costs have doubled year over year, severely compressing household purchasing power across the economy.
  2. Iran’s GDP is on track for its steepest annual contraction since the mid-1980s Iran-Iraq War nadir, a deterioration that surpasses every recessionary episode across four intervening decades.

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AI Summary. Diesel prices have reached $5.47 per gallon, near an all-time high, as global supply disruptions push the cost of refining diesel above crude oil to record levels.

Myles McCormick and Jamie Smyth Financial Times
Date Posted:

Diesel prices in the US have risen 8% over the last month to $5.47, largely reflecting a record-high “crack” spread, the premium of diesel over crude.

Does rising diesel cost threaten broader economic growth?

Core argument: Diesel prices reached $5.47/gallon—within 6% of the all-time high of $5.82—as geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East and Europe constrain global supply, sustaining upward cost pressure across industrial and agricultural sectors.

The pump price of diesel — the lifeblood of the economy because of its essential role in powering industry and agriculture — hit $5.47 a gallon on Tuesday, approaching its all-time [nominal] high of $5.82 ($6.64 inflation adjusted) as wars in the Middle East and Europe hobble production and throttle global supplies. Prices have jumped 8% in the past month, while the gap between the cost of diesel and crude oil, known as the “crack spread,” has hit a record high in recent days.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Diesel prices reached $5.47/gallon—within 6% of the all-time high of $5.82—as geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East and Europe constrain global supply, sustaining upward cost pressure across industrial and agricultural sectors.
  2. Diesel prices surged 8% in one month while the crack spread hit a record high, signaling refinery-level bottlenecks that amplify downstream inflation beyond raw commodity movements.

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AI Summary. The gap between crude oil prices and refined fuel prices has widened by ~$35/barrel because global refining capacity is constrained, suppressing crude prices even as total energy costs rise.

Paul Krugman Krugman Wonks Out
Date Posted:

Krugman asks why crude is “only” ~$25 above its prewar level. Much of the world’s refining capacity is trapped behind Hormuz or offline, raising the “crack spread” – the premium on refined products like diesel – while depressing the crude oil price.

Is refining capacity the missing link in energy price inflation?

Core argument: The crack spread — the margin between crude oil and refined product prices — has widened by ~$35/barrel since the Strait of Hormuz closure, absorbing price rationing that would otherwise have driven crude prices sharply higher.

The difference between the price of a barrel of crude and the price of the products refined from that barrel — the “crack spread” — has exploded, rising about $35/barrel since the eve of the war. Why has the crack spread widened so much? The main answer is that a lot of the world’s refining capacity is either trapped inside the Strait or offline as a result of Ukraine’s drone campaign. It’s not all about Iran. The shortage of refining capacity has held crude prices down, as buyers won’t pay extremely high prices for crude they can’t refine. Or to put it differently but equivalently, the cutoff of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, in effect, required a large rise in global prices [of petroleum products] to ration demand, but much of that rationing has taken place through a rise in the crack spread rather than a rise in crude oil prices.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The crack spread — the margin between crude oil and refined product prices — has widened by ~$35/barrel since the Strait of Hormuz closure, absorbing price rationing that would otherwise have driven crude prices sharply higher.
  2. Constrained global refining capacity, hobbled by both Hormuz-trapped facilities and Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian infrastructure, suppresses crude demand and caps crude prices by limiting buyers’ willingness to pay for unrefinable oil.

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AI Summary. At least 5m barrels of oil per day continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with the true volume likely higher as growing oil spills from tanker attacks indicate ongoing vessel traffic despite efforts to close the waterway.

Javier Blas Bloomberg
Date Posted:

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported that ~9mm bpd crossed Hormuz over the previous week. Javier Blas’s baseline was ~7mm but finds Wright’s claim plausible: “If we’re missing two tankers rather than one, that raises it to 9 million barrels.”

Does the Strait of Hormuz remain open despite attempts to close it?

Core argument: Verified tanker tracking places Strait of Hormuz oil flows at a minimum of 5M barrels per day, with adjustments for untracked vessels pushing the plausible figure to 7–9M barrels per day.

By counting identified tankers using available data, we can safely say that, at the very least, 5 million barrels a day are transiting Hormuz. Then I like to add an adjustment factor for known unknowns — because I’m quite certain that more is happening. Say one supertanker a day is crossing in utmost secrecy; that pushes the count to 7 million barrels a day. If we’re missing two tankers rather than one, that raises it to 9 million barrels. It quickly adds up. There's a tell of what’s going on: Oil spills in the Strait of Hormuz, quite visible on the available satellite imagery, are growing by the day. It’s a sign that Iran is attacking tankers to keep the waterway closed, but also an indication that many are battling equally to keep it open — perhaps more successfully than we think.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Verified tanker tracking places Strait of Hormuz oil flows at a minimum of 5M barrels per day, with adjustments for untracked vessels pushing the plausible figure to 7–9M barrels per day.
  2. Proliferating oil spills visible on satellite imagery confirm active Iranian attacks on Hormuz tankers, yet sustained transit volumes demonstrate that interdiction efforts remain incomplete.

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