Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf crude and oil product exports have recovered to about 15–16m barrels a day, roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels and above a trough of 5–6m barrels a day, limiting the Iran war's impact on global crude prices. Transits through the Strait of Hormuz are likely close to US officials' estimates of 8–10m barrels a day.

Yongchang Chin Bloomberg
Date Posted:

A GS analysis finds oil exports from the Gulf have risen to 15–16mm bpd, ~ 2/3 of pre-war levels; 8–10mm bpd – about half of pre-war levels – transit through Hormuz.

Have Gulf oil exports recovered enough to limit crude price impact?

Core argument: Persian Gulf crude and oil product exports have recovered to 15–16 million barrels a day, about two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran war's impact on global crude prices, according to Goldman Sachs.

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran war’s impact on global crude prices, according to Goldman Sachs. Total exports of crude and oil products from the region have risen to 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, helped by higher crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in a note. That’s still 7 to 8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels, but well above a trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels a day in March. Oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz alone are likely close to US officials’ 8 million to 10 million barrel a day estimates, the analysts said.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Persian Gulf crude and oil product exports have recovered to 15–16 million barrels a day, about two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran war's impact on global crude prices, according to Goldman Sachs.
  2. Gulf exports remain 7–8 million barrels a day below pre-conflict levels but well above a trough of 5–6 million barrels a day in March, Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said.
  3. Oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz are likely close to US officials' estimates of 8–10 million barrels a day, with higher crossings helping lift regional exports, the Goldman analysts said.

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