Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. The U.S.-bound shipping network once turned about 89% of potential fleet capacity into effective service, but utilization fell below 70% as ships waited at anchor, slowed steaming, or sailed around maritime bottlenecks, and has not recovered. Diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope drives much of the loss.

Xiwen Bai, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Yiliang Li, Ricardo Marto and Francesco Zanetti National Bureau Of Economic Research
Date Posted:

US-bound shipping can fall far short of potential after disruptions. Pandemic queuing and slow steaming drove effective capacity from ~89% of potential to <70%. Later, Houthi attacks left it near 79% as ships rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope.

Why has shipping capacity to America not regained its prior utilization?

Core argument: The U.S.-bound shipping network converted about 89% of potential fleet capacity into effective service in 2016–2019, but aggregate utilization fell below 70% in 2021–2022 as ships waited at anchor, steamed slowly, or sailed around maritime bottlenecks.

In 2016–2019, the U.S.-bound shipping network turned about 89% of the fleet’s potential capacity into effective service [Figure 3.5]. During 2021–2022, effective capacity declined despite potential capacity reaching record highs. Pandemic-era port congestion and slower steaming pushed aggregate utilization below 70%. On the Asia-Pacific–U.S. West Coast route, utilization fell from about 92% before 2020 to 53% by late 2021. The route has since recovered but remains below its old peak. The network as a whole has not regained its pre-pandemic utilization. More recently, rerouting after the 2023–2024 Houthi attacks in the Red Sea held aggregate utilization near 79%. Utilization on the Middle East and Asia-Pacific routes to the U.S. East Coast via Suez fell to 48% and 61%, respectively, largely because diversion around the Cape of Good Hope lengthened voyages without increasing cargo delivered.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The U.S.-bound shipping network converted about 89% of potential fleet capacity into effective service in 2016–2019, but aggregate utilization fell below 70% in 2021–2022 as ships waited at anchor, steamed slowly, or sailed around maritime bottlenecks.
  2. Utilization on the Asia-Pacific–U.S. West Coast route dropped from 92% before 2020 to 53% by late 2021 amid port congestion and slower steaming, recovering since but remaining well below its old peak.
  3. Since late 2023, utilization on the Middle East and Asia-Pacific routes to the U.S. East Coast via the Suez Canal has fallen to 48% and 61%, with diversions around the Cape of Good Hope driving much of the loss as ships travel longer distances without delivering additional cargo.

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