Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. The Budget Lab estimates that with tariffs imposed under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act struck down, US consumers face an average effective tariff rate of 9.1%, versus 16.9% had those tariffs remained. Remaining tariffs are projected to raise about $1.2tn over 2026-35, or $1tn accounting for slower growth.

John Iselin Yale University
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Without the IEEPA tariffs, the mean effective tariff rate is 9.1%, down from 16.9%. The previous tariff regime was projected to raise ~$2.7T over 2026–35 ($2.3T dynamically). The SCOTUS decision will cut revenue by about 50% to ~$1-1.2T with or without refunds.

How much do remaining tariffs cost consumers after emergency powers struck down?

Core argument: The Budget Lab estimates that without IEEPA tariffs, U.S. consumers face an average effective tariff rate of 9.1%, the highest since 1946 excluding 2025, versus 16.9% had IEEPA tariffs remained in effect.

The Budget Lab estimates the effects of all US tariffs and foreign retaliation implemented in 2025 after the decision by the Supreme Court of the United States that President Trump exceeded his authority to invoke the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose reciprocal tariffs. Without IEEPA tariffs, consumers will face an overall average effective tariff rate of 9.1%, which remains the highest since 1946 excluding 2025. (If IEEPA tariffs had been allowed to stay in effect, this figure would have been 16.9%.) All tariffs to date as of February 2026 are projected to raise about $1.2 trillion over 2026-35, though slower economic growth reduces revenues and brings the net dynamic revenue to $1 trillion. (With IEEPA, these figures would be more than twice as large.) The economic implications of the SCOTUS decision are complicated by two major factors. First, in the short-term, firms will be aggressively seeking refunds on tariffs paid in 2025, which has large revenue effects and uncertain distributional effects. Second, the current Administration has stated its intent to replace IEEPA tariffs with tariffs using other authorities, but there remain timing and other questions regarding these steps.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The Budget Lab estimates that without IEEPA tariffs, U.S. consumers face an average effective tariff rate of 9.1%, the highest since 1946 excluding 2025, versus 16.9% had IEEPA tariffs remained in effect.
  2. All U.S. tariffs in place as of February 2026 are projected to raise about $1.2 trillion over 2026–35, falling to $1 trillion on a net dynamic basis as slower economic growth reduces revenues.
  3. The Budget Lab identifies two complications from the Supreme Court decision that President Trump exceeded his IEEPA authority: firms seeking refunds on tariffs paid in 2025, with uncertain distributional effects, and the Administration's stated intent to replace IEEPA tariffs using other authorities.

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  • China Is Making Trade Impossible — Interviews with Chinese economists, technologists and business leaders yielded no clear answer to what products China would want to buy from the rest of the world in future, beyond commodities, luxury goods and higher education. The author argues China sees nothing it cannot eventually make better and cheaper itself, undermining trade as a two-way exchange.
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Showing 56 database articles primarily about Trade (not deficits)