Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. China earned about $3.4bn from exporting rare-earth elements and magnets in a year, while the U.S. Geological Survey estimates a 30% disruption to U.S. supply of the rare-earth element neodymium alone would cut U.S. GDP by 2.2%, over $600bn. This asymmetry gives Chinese export controls their leverage.

Edward Fishman Foreign Affairs
Date Posted:

Edward Fishman makes the case for deeper integration of Western economies in order to manage chokepoints; integration “can preserve the scale modern economies require while neutralizing the coercive power of rivals.”

What makes export controls on critical minerals so powerful?

Core argument: U.S. Geological Survey researchers estimate that a 30% disruption to U.S. supply of the rare-earth element neodymium alone would cut U.S. GDP by 2.2%, more than $600 billion.

Chinese rare earths offer a clear-cut case. In 2024, China earned approximately $3.4 billion from exporting rare-earth elements and magnets. Meanwhile, researchers at the U.S. Geological Survey estimate that a 30% disruption to the United States’ supply of the rare-earth element neodymium alone would reduce the country’s GDP by 2.2 percent—more than $600 billion. In other words, China would have to forgo no more than a couple of billion dollars in export revenue to inflict over half a trillion dollars of damage on the U.S. economy. This asymmetry is what gives Chinese export controls their power. It also highlights a broader reality about economic warfare. When they have a choice, states don’t weaponize interdependence—they weaponize dependence.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. Geological Survey researchers estimate that a 30% disruption to U.S. supply of the rare-earth element neodymium alone would cut U.S. GDP by 2.2%, more than $600 billion.
  2. China earned roughly $3.4 billion from exporting rare-earth elements and magnets in 2024, meaning it would forgo no more than a couple of billion dollars in export revenue to inflict over half a trillion dollars of damage on the U.S. economy.
  3. The asymmetry between small Chinese export revenues and large U.S. losses gives Chinese export controls their power, and states with a choice weaponize dependence rather than interdependence.

Related Articles:

  • Underestimating China — China's productive capacity is three times that of the United States and exceeds the next nine countries combined, with its share of global manufacturing quintupling to 30% while the U.S. share halved to about 15%. The authors argue Washington must convert its alliances into a platform for pooled capacity building.
  • China Hatches Plan to Keep U.S. Military From Getting Its Rare-Earth Magnets — China is designing a "validated end-user" system that would fast-track rare-earth and other restricted material export approvals for U.S. firms while excluding companies tied to the U.S. military. The arrangement would let China ease export flows while keeping the materials away from U.S. military suppliers.
  • How Japan Built a Rare-Earth Supply Chain Without China — Japan has reduced its reliance on Chinese rare earths, with industry estimates putting China's share of Japanese rare-earth imports at roughly 60% to 70%, down from 90% or more. Japan's alternative chain runs from an Australian open-pit mine through a separation plant in Malaysia to Japanese magnet makers supplying automakers.
Showing 91 database articles primarily about China