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The Not-So-Certain Science of Pre-K

Frederick Hess American Enterprise Institute

Date Posted:: June 27, 2022
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Perry Preschool success was based on a small pilot involving 58 low-income Black children 50 years ago. Benefits often fade by 1st grade, highlighting the need for cautious, data-driven policy development.

The notion that Perry Preschool offers a clear blueprint for broad public policy is just fantastic, as the program's success was based on a small, intensive pilot involving 58 low-income Black children over 50 years ago. While it showed positive impacts on educational and life outcomes, such as reducing teenage pregnancy and increasing lifetime earnings, its scale and context limit its applicability to broader policies. Recent studies, like the one on Tennessee's statewide pre-K program, reveal that benefits often fade by 1st grade, with pre-K students performing worse in assessments and disciplinary outcomes. This underscores that the most meaningful effects come from carefully designed, well-implemented programs rather than sweeping mandates. The push for universal pre-K, as seen in proposals like the Biden administration's Build Back Better, risks bureaucratizing early-childhood education without clear evidence of benefits, highlighting the need for cautious, data-driven policy development.

“…The truth is, an analysis of the 10 best-known, widely cited pre-K programs makes clear that the research around these programs shows not “that ‘pre-K works’” but that “some early childhood programs yield particular outcomes, sometimes, for some children.” Indeed, the most credible research has made clear that “the most meaningful, far-reaching effects” are the product of “carefully designed, well-implemented programs”—not sweeping mandates. And even the studies that do indicate pre-K efforts were beneficial don’t necessarily point at a clear path forward for policies on pre-K. Consider the famed Perry Preschool project, a small pilot preschool and home-visiting program for 3- and 4-year-olds that ran from 1962 to 1967 in Ypsilanti, Michigan. The program provided 58 low-income Black children with two years of a research-based preschool curriculum and weekly home visits. It was found to have positive impacts on participants’ educational and life outcomes, reducing teenage pregnancy, and increasing lifetime earnings. All good stuff. But we’re talking about less than 60 students, in an intensive boutique pilot program, more than a half-century ago. The notion that Perry offers a clear blueprint for broad public policies is just fantastic….”

Frederick Hess, "The Not-So-Certain Science of Pre-K,"American Enterprise Institute, May 25, 2022, https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-not-so-certain-science-of-pre-k/

The Not-So-Certain Science of Pre-K

There’s a lot to like about preschool. Over the years, my kids have used several different preschools—from a cheerful church basement to a hard-core Montessori—and had a number of really positive experiences. You don’t need to convince me that good, affordable, reliable, and convenient preschool is something we should value.

But it’s a big leap from there to concluding that preschool “works” or that universal pre-K is a good idea. Now, when I offer such qualifications, preschool aficionados immediately leap to patiently (or not-so-patiently) explain that I’m ignoring the science.

As for that science. Earlier this year, researchers at Vanderbilt University released the outcomes of a new gold-standard study of Tennessee’s statewide pre-K program, launched back in 2009. The study has been touted as the only randomized “thorough, ongoing investigation into the impacts of a statewide pre-K program for economically disadvantaged children.” The findings of the initial 2015 report were regarded as highly disappointing, with the benefits of the pre-K program fading before 1st grade. The follow-up results aren’t any better. The pre-K students fared worse on state assessments than their peers and had worse outcomes “for disciplinary infractions, attendance, and receipt of special education services.”

Readers who regularly hear that pre-K “works” might be surprised. They shouldn’t be. The truth is, an analysis of the 10 best-known, widely cited pre-K programs makes clear that the research around these programs shows not “that ‘pre-K works’” but that “some early childhood programs yield particular outcomes, sometimes, for some children.” Indeed, the most credible research has made clear that “the most meaningful, far-reaching effects” are the product of “carefully designed, well-implemented programs”—not sweeping mandates.

And even the studies that do indicate pre-K efforts were beneficial don’t necessarily point at a clear path forward for policies on pre-K. Consider the famed Perry Preschool project, a small pilot preschool and home-visiting program for 3- and 4-year-olds that ran from 1962 to 1967 in Ypsilanti, Michigan. The program provided 58 low-income Black children with two years of a research-based preschool curriculum and weekly home visits. It was found to have positive impacts on participants’ educational and life outcomes, reducing teenage pregnancy, and increasing lifetime earnings. All good stuff. But we’re talking about less than 60 students, in an intensive boutique pilot program, more than a half-century ago. The notion that Perry offers a clear blueprint for broad public policies is just fantastic.

And yet, some years back, Nobel Prize-winning economist James Heckman savaged a newspaper columnist for even questioning the benefits of expanded pre-K. Heckman insisted that it clearly works. How did he know this? Heckman pointed to his “evidence-based analysis of more than 30 years of data” from the Perry Preschool project. “It is as good a trial for effectiveness as those we currently rely on to evaluate prescription and over-the-counter drugs,” he wrote.

While Heckman is a very smart guy, he was wrong here. There’s a difference between a medical therapeutic and a public-policy response. Unlike a preschool program, the ingredients of an over-the-counter drug can be replicated exactly and administered to new patients with precise directions. In the case of Perry, it’s not especially clear just what it means to replicate the program. Was the intervention simply attending a preschool? Doubtful. Was it attending a “high quality” preschool? OK, but just what made Perry “high quality”? Was it the student-teacher ratio? Home visits? The curriculum? All of the above? How exactly does one know?

Unless we know, it’s tough to be confident that policies will deliver the desired results. Worse, the bigger the policy, the bigger the risk that getting things wrong will have adverse consequences. And yet much of the support for universal preschool proceeds with a blind assurance that leaves all such difficult questions aside. For instance, last fall, the Biden administration’s Build Back Better proposal for universal preschool contained sweeping new federal requirements that would’ve governed preschool education standards, credentials, and pay. There was little evidence behind any of this and actually more cause to fear the ways in which it might bureaucratize early-childhood education, squelch small church-based and neighborhood providers, drive up costs, and aggravate staffing challenges. We would’ve been far better served not by assertions of “the science says” but by serious discussions of uncertainty, trade-offs, and sensible compromise.

Helping ensure that families have access to reliable, trusted child-care options is a good idea. But the claims made about preschool—and especially about universal pre-K—tend to be overstated, the benefits are far from certain, and fail to consider that massive new programs can cause real harm. We should keep working to expand access to reliable, convenient, trusted preschool. But we should do so guided by good judgment, not by overreliance on not-so-certain science.

The Fairest Way to Reform Social Security May Also Be the Worst Way to Grow the Economy

Andrew Biggs American Enterprise Institute

Date Posted:: May 28, 2026
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Biggs argues that “fair” approaches to restoring Social Security solvency – those that do not cut already accrued benefits – are less effective than “unfair” ones that do, because the latter incentivize increased work effort, raising growth and revenue.

Imagine that Social Security reform follows the fairness model, in which accrued benefits are paid in full but the rate at which future benefits are earned is reduced. A simple way to do this is to increase the payroll tax rate To keep Social Security permanently solvent, meaning through 75 years and beyond, would require an immediate and permanent increase in the payroll tax rate [from] 12.4% to 17.6%. The higher rate would decrease labor supply and reduce economic growth. [Consider] an alternate reform, which looks clearly unfair: fix Social Security’s funding gap entirely by reducing accrued benefits that Americans already have earned. As of 2025, Americans had accrued $54 trillion in Social Security benefits. Social Security’s unfunded obligation as of 2025 was $26 trillion. So, roughly, this means cutting Americans’ “earned benefits” in half. [Analyzing the 1977 reform that undid the notorious 1972 “double-indexing” of benefits, a group of economists], using SSA earnings data, found that, for every dollar of lost benefits, the affected Americans increased their earnings by 61 cents. Moreover, these additional earnings would be taxed by Social Security, further strengthening the program’s finances. In effect, this makes cutting benefits a “cheaper” way to fix Social Security than raising taxes, because people respond in ways that also increase tax revenues.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

A 5.2 pts payroll tax increase to 17.6% drives reduced labor supply and slower economic growth vs. the status quo.
$54 trillion in accrued Social Security benefits vs. the unfunded obligation reveals that benefit cuts would reduce growth drag but.

The World’s Most Surprising Capitalist Makeover Is Under Way in Sweden

Tom Fairless Wall Street Journal

Date Posted:: May 12, 2026
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Swedish public social spending is now 23.7% of GDP, just 1pp above that of the US and well under France’s 31.6%. Market-based reforms in the 1990s brought overall government spending down from 69.4% to 49.3% in 2024.

For decades, Sweden was shorthand for the brand of high-tax, high-spend government that managed people’s lives from cradle to grave through state-run hospitals, schools and care homes. No longer. With little fanfare, this Nordic country of 11 million has embraced capitalism. Today, nearly half of primary healthcare clinics are privately owned, many by private-equity firms. One in three public high schools is privately run, up from 20% in 2011. School operators are listed on the stock exchange. The capitalist makeover has allowed Sweden to do what few industrialized countries have managed in recent years: shrink the size of the state. That has enabled the government to sharply lower taxes and, economists say, sparked a surge in entrepreneurship and economic growth. Its total public social spending bill—which includes healthcare, education and all welfare payments—has fallen to 24% of gross domestic product, similar to the U.S. and well below the over 30% for nations like France and Italy. Sweden’s economy is expected to grow by around 2% a year through 2030, roughly the same pace as the U.S. and double the growth rates of France and Germany, according to an April forecast by the International Monetary Fund.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Sweden’s public social spending fell to 24% of GDP, matching the U.S. and 6+ pts below France/Italy, driving lower taxes.
Privately-run primary healthcare clinics reached nearly 50% of the market vs. 20% for high schools in 2011, demonstrating accelerating privatization.
Sweden’s projected 2% annual GDP growth through 2030 doubles France and Germany’s rates, resulting from state downsizing and capitalist sector.

How Policy and Demographics Are Reshaping SNAP: From Families with Children to Older Adults

Angela Rachidi American Enterprise Institute

Date Posted:: May 1, 2026
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About 40mm Americans, 12% of the population, receive SNAP benefits, up from 6% in 2000. In 2023, only 34% of these households included children, down from 49% in 2010, while 36% contained an elderly person, up from 16% in FY2010.

Comparing FY2000 with FY2025, the share of the population receiving SNAP doubled from 6% to 12%, while real SNAP costs per capita increased by 179%—from roughly $100 per year to $279 (in 2024 dollars). Despite this growth, per capita participation and costs in FY2025 remained below their pre-pandemic peak in 2013, which coincided with the aftermath of the Great Recession and changes in eligibility and other policies stemming from the 2008 Farm Bill. SNAP is countercyclical, meaning that all else equal, the number of people receiving SNAP should rise during recessions because of increased unemployment and decline as the economy recovers, [though] overall SNAP participation has grown faster than changes in the unemployment rate alone would predict. Over the long run, and especially since FY2020 (due to the Thrifty Food Plan’s increase in the maximum SNAP benefit), costs per capita have not returned to prerecession levels after a period of high unemployment. In FY2023, the share of SNAP households containing an elderly person (36%) exceeded the share containing a child (34%) for the first time. This was a sharp departure from the early 2000s, when more than half of SNAP households contained a child and less than 20% included an elderly person (Figure 2).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

SNAP participation doubled from 6% to 12% of the population between FY2000–FY2025, driven by policy expansions and demographic shifts outpacing.
Real per capita SNAP costs rose 179% from $100 to $279 (2024 dollars) over 25 years, with the Thrifty Food.
FY2025 SNAP enrollment remains 8–12% below the FY2013 peak despite 25-year growth, indicating countercyclical policy design successfully targets recession-driven need.

Washington’s Growing Portfolio: Tracking U.S. Government Investments

Jonathan Hillman Council On Foreign Relations

Date Posted:: April 23, 2026
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Since January 2025, the USG has taken equity stakes totaling $20.9B in 16 American businesses. $8.6B, ~41% of the total, was invested in critical mineral miners and processors, while $8.9B, ~43% of the total, funded the government’s 10% stake in Intel.

Since January 2025, the U.S. government has invested $20.9 billion across sixteen deals involving direct ownership, broadening a toolkit that has traditionally focused on grants, loans, and tax incentives. The Department of Commerce has participated in six such deals, including taking a 10% stake in Intel. The Development Finance Corporation, the United States’ development bank, has executed three equity transactions in critical minerals, healthcare, and infrastructure. The Department of Defense leads the way with seven such deals. The U.S. government is also working with a range of partners and has mobilized an additional $4.75 billion in investment. Private co-investors include J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and others.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The U.S. government deployed $20.9bn in direct equity investments since January 2025, expanding beyond traditional grants and loans to drive.
The Department of Defense leads with seven equity deals of the sixteen total, establishing direct ownership as a core national.
Commerce Department’s 10% Intel stake exemplifies government equity participation in critical infrastructure, mobilizing private capital alongside public investment to strengthen.

How Federal Spending is Distributed by Age

Kent Smetters University of Pennsylvania

Date Posted:: April 2, 2026
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In 2025, of the 62.5% of Federal spending that is age-assignable on a per-capita basis, US retirees aged 65+ were given $43,700, working-age adults 26–64 got $7,300, and children and young adults got $4,300.

We trace spending items within 52 general spending categories, totalling $7T for the 2025 Fiscal Year. We are able to classify a total of $4.4T across three broad age categories and assign the remaining $2.6T to an all-ages residual. Retirees (adults age 65 and older) receive $2.7T, equal to 38.6% of total federal outlays and 61.9% of age-assignable spending. Working-age adults (ages 26-64) receive $1.2T (27.9% of age-assignable), and children and young adults (under age 26) receive $449B (10.3%). The dominance of the retiree category reflects two programs above all others: Social Security and Medicare. Social Security directs $1.3T to retirees, and Medicare sends $835B. Together, they account for 80% of all age-assignable spending on older adults. But the retiree total extends beyond these two entitlements. Federal employee retirement benefits ($169B), housing assistance for older households, Medicaid long-term-care spending, and VA medical care all contribute, making the federal budget more retiree-focused than a Social Security–only lens would suggest.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Federal spending heavily favors retirees, who receive 38.6 percent of total outlays through Social Security, Medicare, and related programs.
Working-age adults and children combined receive less than half the spending directed to retirees despite representing larger population segments.
Social Security and Medicare alone account for 80 percent of all federal spending on older Americans, dominating the retiree budget.

Has the United States Bent the Health Care Cost Curve?

David Cutler and Lev Klarnet Brookings Papers On Economic Activity

Date Posted:: March 30, 2026
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In 2024, medical spending as a share of GDP was just above its 2010 level and 15% ($977B) below its 2010 forecast; 21% of the gap was due to technology, 24% to price reductions, and 11–27% to reforms such as prior authorization and higher deductibles.

Five factors are important in the slowdown in spending [Figure 16]. The first is technology-associated changes in health and site of care. These correspond to the subsequent innovations in our model. Together, technologies along these lines account for 21% of the overall cost slowdown and double that in Medicare. Second, long-run supply is more elastic than short-run supply, which lowers spending over time. This is particularly apparent in the impact of patent expiration for pharmaceuticals and in relative declines in imaging reimbursement. We estimate that greater long-run supply explains 6% of the spending slowdown. Third, a variety of market changes contribute to reduced and more elastic demand, including increased cost sharing paid by consumers, physicians not paid as much for using technologies, and insurers imposing restrictions on technology use - a rough guess is that these account for 11 to 27% of the spending slowdown. Fourth, the population is healthier in ways that reduce spending. This includes fewer hospitalizations for smoking-related conditions and reduced need for formal home health care. The birth rate has fallen as well, which reduces the need for care. We estimate improved population health explains 7% of the spending slowdown. A major component is slower price growth. Net of upcoding, we estimate lower price growth explains 24% of the spending slowdown.

Perry Preschool success was based on a small pilot involving 58 low-income Black children 50 years ago. Benefits often fade by 1st grade, highlighting the need for cautious, data-driven policy development.

Biggs argues that “fair” approaches to restoring Social Security solvency – those that do not cut already accrued benefits – are less effective than “unfair” ones that do, because the latter incentivize increased work effort, raising growth and revenue.

Does preserving Social Security benefits require sacrificing economic growth?

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Swedish public social spending is now 23.7% of GDP, just 1pp above that of the US and well under France’s 31.6%. Market-based reforms in the 1990s brought overall government spending down from 69.4% to 49.3% in 2024.

How is Sweden's shift to privatization impacting its economic growth?

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About 40mm Americans, 12% of the population, receive SNAP benefits, up from 6% in 2000. In 2023, only 34% of these households included children, down from 49% in 2010, while 36% contained an elderly person, up from 16% in FY2010.

How Are Policy Changes and Demographic Shifts Impacting SNAP Enrollment?

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Since January 2025, the USG has taken equity stakes totaling $20.9B in 16 American businesses. $8.6B, ~41% of the total, was invested in critical mineral miners and processors, while $8.9B, ~43% of the total, funded the government’s 10% stake in Intel.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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In 2025, of the 62.5% of Federal spending that is age-assignable on a per-capita basis, US retirees aged 65+ were given $43,700, working-age adults 26–64 got $7,300, and children and young adults got $4,300.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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In 2024, medical spending as a share of GDP was just above its 2010 level and 15% ($977B) below its 2010 forecast; 21% of the gap was due to technology, 24% to price reductions, and 11–27% to reforms such as prior authorization and higher deductibles.

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