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Case-Shiller National Index up 20.6 Year-over-year in March; New Record Monthly Increase

Bill McBride Calculated Risk

Date Posted:: June 27, 2022
Is Database:: Database

@CalculatedRisk The Case-Shiller National Index reported a record 20.6% year-over-year increase in March, marking the highest annual price change in over 35 years.

The Case-Shiller National Index reported a record 20.6% year-over-year increase in March, marking the highest annual price change in over 35 years. The month-over-month increase was 2.09%, the largest on record since 1975, surpassing gains during the housing bubble and high inflation periods of the late '70s. The 10-City and 20-City Composites also saw significant annual increases of 19.5% and 21.2%, respectively. Despite rising mortgage rates, which averaged 3.4% in January and 3.8% in February, price growth remained robust due to strong demand and tight supply, with months-of-supply at a low 1.9 months in March. However, inventory is beginning to increase, suggesting potential moderation in price growth ahead. The FHFA House Price Index also showed an 18.7% rise year-over-year, indicating widespread appreciation across U.S. housing markets, particularly in regions like the Mountain and South Atlantic areas.

“…The MoM increase in Case-Shiller was at 2.09%. This is the largest MoM increase in the Case-Shiller index on record (since 1975), and stronger than any month during the housing bubble or during the late ‘70s with high inflation. In March, the months-of-supply was at 1.9 months, and the Case-Shiller National Index (SA) increased 2.09% month-over-month. The black arrow points to the March 2022 dot. In the April existing home sales report, the NAR reported months-of-supply increased to 2.2 months. This month was very likely the peak YoY growth rate - just above the peak last August. Since inventory is now increasing year-over-year (but still low), we should expect price increases to slow. The normal level of inventory is probably in the 4 to 6 months range, and we will have to see a significant increase in inventory to sharply slow price increases, and that is why I’m focused on inventory! Since Case-Shiller is a 3-month average, and this report was for March (includes January and February), this included price increases when mortgage rates were significantly lower than today. In January, the Freddie Mac PMMS averaged 3.4% for a 30-year mortgage, and 3.8% in February. Currently mortgage rates are around 5.25%....”

Bill McBride, "Case-Shiller National Index up 20.6% Year-over-year in March; New Record Monthly Increase,"Calculated Risk, May 31, 2022, https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shiller-national-index-up-206

Case-Shiller National Index up 20.6% Year-over-year in March; New Record Monthly Increase

Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for March were released today. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “March” is a 3-month average of January, February and March prices.

Case-Shiller National Index up 20.6 Year-over-year in March; New Record Monthly Increase: Extended Excerpt Image 1

The MoM increase in Case-Shiller was at 2.09%. This is the largest MoM increase in the Case-Shiller index on record (since 1975), and stronger than any month during the housing bubble or during the late ‘70s with high inflation.

FHFA House Price Index

On the FHFA index: U.S. House Prices Rise 18.7 Percent over the Last Year; Up 4.6 Percent from the Fourth Quarter

U.S. house prices rose 18.7 percent from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices were up 4.6 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for March was up 1.5 percent from February.

"High appreciation rates continued across housing markets during the first quarter of 2022," said William Doerner, Ph.D., Supervisory Economist in FHFA's Division of Research and Statistics. "Strong demand coupled with tight supply have kept prices climbing. Through the end of March, higher mortgage rates have not yet translated into slower price gains, but new home sales have dropped during the last few months, with a significant falloff in April."
emphasis added
This is the monthly and quarterly indexes. Here is a graph from the FHFA report showing the annual change by region for March 2022 compared to March 2021. Prices have increased sharply everywhere, but especially in the Mountain, South Atlantic, East South Central and Pacific regions.

Case-Shiller National Index up 20.6 Year-over-year in March; New Record Monthly Increase: Extended Excerpt Image 2

Case-Shiller House Prices

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Home Price Gain Of 20.6% In March

the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 20.6% annual gain in March, up from 20.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 19.5%, up from 18.7% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 21.2% year-over-year gain, up from 20.3% in the previous month.

Tampa, Phoenix, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in March. Tampa led the way with a 34.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with a 32.4% increase, and Miami with a 32.0% increase. Seventeen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending March 2022 versus the year ending February 2022.
...
“Those of us who have been anticipating a deceleration in the growth rate of U.S. home prices will have to wait at least a month longer,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index recorded a gain of 20.6% for the 12 months ended March 2022; the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 19.5% and 21.2%, respectively.For both National and 20-City Composites, March’s reading was the highest year-over-year price change in more than 35 years of data, with the 10-City growth rate at the 99th percentile of its own history.

“The strength of the Composite indices suggests very broad strength in the housing market, which we continue to observe. All 20 cities saw double-digit price increases for the 12 months ended in March, and price growth in 17 cities accelerated relative to February’s report. March’s price increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for every city, and in the top decile for 19 of them. emphasis added
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

Case-Shiller National Index up 20.6 Year-over-year in March; New Record Monthly Increase: Extended Excerpt Image 3

The Composite 10 index is up 2.2% in March (SA). The Composite 20 index is up 2.4% (SA) in March. The National index is 60% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 2.1% (SA) in March. The National index is up 117% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller National Index up 20.6 Year-over-year in March; New Record Monthly Increase: Extended Excerpt Image 4

The Composite 10 SA is up 19.5% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 21.2% year-over-year. The National index SA is up 20.6% year-over-year.

House Prices and Inventory

This graph below shows existing home months-of-supply (inverted, from the NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999 through March 2022).

Note that the months-of-supply is not seasonally adjusted.

Case-Shiller National Index up 20.6 Year-over-year in March; New Record Monthly Increase: Extended Excerpt Image 5

There is a clear relationship, and this is no surprise (but interesting to graph). If months-of-supply is high, prices decline. If months-of-supply is very low (like now), prices rise quickly.

In March, the months-of-supply was at 1.9 months, and the Case-Shiller National Index (SA) increased 2.09% month-over-month. The black arrow points to the March 2022 dot. In the April existing home sales report, the NAR reported months-of-supply increased to 2.2 months.

This month was very likely the peak YoY growth rate - just above the peak last August. Since inventory is now increasing year-over-year (but still low), we should expect price increases to slow.

The normal level of inventory is probably in the 4 to 6 months range, and we will have to see a significant increase in inventory to sharply slow price increases, and that is why I’m focused on inventory!

Since Case-Shiller is a 3-month average, and this report was for March (includes January and February), this included price increases when mortgage rates were significantly lower than today. In January, the Freddie Mac PMMS averaged 3.4% for a 30-year mortgage, and 3.8% in February. Currently mortgage rates are around 5.25%.

Note: I’ll have more on real prices, price-to-rent and affordability tomorrow.

First-Time Home Buyers Are Older Than Ever

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics

Date Posted:: March 24, 2026
Is Database:: Database

The median age of American first-time home buyers was 35 years old in 2025, up from 32 in 2015.

At what age do people buy their first home? My analysis of data from the University of Michigan’s Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) shows that, on average, they’re 35—three years older than a decade ago, and eight years older than in the 1970s. The PSID is a remarkable dataset. Like wildlife researchers tagging a pod of whales, the researchers at the University of Michigan have tracked 85,000 individuals from 5,000 families they began studying in 1968. This ‘longitudinal’ data allows us to observe the kids in these families as they leave home, form their own households, rent their first apartments, and eventually become first time buyers (FTBs) of homes. And because specific individuals are tracked over time, we can pinpoint the exact moment someone transitions from renting to owning for the first time, and how old they were when it happened. No other U.S. dataset can do this, and none go as far back as the 1960s.

How the Housing Market Split in Two

Jess Remington Agglomerations

Date Posted:: March 16, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

As of 2024, American homeowners who bought a house within the last year were spending 26% of their income on housing, relative to 20% for existing homeowners – the largest gap in almost 40 years.

Historically, monthly housing costs for new and existing homeowners have tended to move in tandem. From 1990 through the aftermath of the Great Recession, both groups saw costs rise during booms and fall during downturns, with the gap between them remaining relatively stable at two to four percentage points. That pattern briefly reversed during the Great Recession, when new buyers were able to purchase homes at depressed prices and consequently spent slightly less of their income on housing than existing owners. By 2017, the typical two-point gap had returned. The current divergence began in earnest in 2022. By 2024, new homeowners were spending 26% of their income on housing, compared to 20% for existing homeowners — a six-percentage-point gap, the largest in nearly 40 years. Although new homeowners spent a slightly larger share of their income on housing at the peak of the housing bubble in 2007 (28%), the gap with existing homeowners was smaller (four percentage points).

Living With Mom And Dad At 30

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics

Date Posted:: February 25, 2026
Is Database:: Database

The share of American 30-year-olds living with their parents or roommates nearly doubled btw 1990 and 2025, from 17% to 32%. Aziz Sunderji finds that this group is largely responsible for the age cohort’s 15pp decline in homeownership over that period.

Among married 30-year-olds, the homeownership rate has barely budged—63% in 1990, 60% today. Among single 30-year-olds living alone, the homeownership rate actually rose, from 25% to 29%. The typical 30-year-old living at home is male (61%), has never been married (89%), and doesn’t have a college degree (73%). Only 27% have a bachelor’s, compared to 42% of all 30-year-olds. In the early 1990s the profile of those living at home at 30 looked nearly identical: 64% male, 77% never married, and less educated than average. [However], in the ’90s, a greater proportion of young, less educated men would have gotten married and moved out. Among men without a college degree—the group most likely to be living with their parents—the marriage rate has plunged from 58% to 36%.

Productivity Stagnation in the Construction Industry: An International Perspective

Elsie Peng Goldman Sachs

Date Posted:: February 3, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Post-1965, measured labor productivity in US construction averaged ~ -0.6% per year, compared to +1.6% economy-wide. GS attributes ~40% of the gap to tighter land-use rules, ~20% to weak innovation, and ~20% to mismeasurement of quality improvements.

Our analysis shows that, within the US, the tightening of land use regulations has accounted for 40% of the gap in productivity growth between construction and the rest of the economy since 1965, and the lack of innovation and quality mismeasurement have each accounted for 20%. Looking across countries, we find that more severe tightening of land use regulations and greater quality mismeasurement account for most of the underperformance of the US construction industry since 1991, relative to other major G10 countries.

What Explains Low Millennial Home Ownership?

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics

Date Posted:: January 28, 2026
Is Database:: Database

60% of millennials who are married and living apart from their parents at age 30 own a home, compared to 68% of comparable baby boomers. At 30, 42% of millennials are married, versus 64% of boomers.

The diagram traces the path from birth to living arrangement at age 30 for Millennials and Boomers. It reveals two junctures where the generations diverged. First, household formation: 31% of Millennials at age 30 still live with parents or roommates, compared to just 19% of Boomers at the same age—a 12-percentage-point gap that immediately disqualifies Millennials from the ownership track. Second, marriage: among those who do form households, only 61% of Millennials are married by age 30, versus 77% of Boomers. These two factors—not leaving the nest and not marrying, at least by age 30—account for the bulk of the 18-point ownership gap (43% for Boomers vs. 25% for Millennials). Part of this comes down to shifting preferences and values, but stretched affordability is also an important driver. Strikingly, conditional on being a married household head, ownership rates are much closer: 68% of married Boomer heads owned at 30, compared to 60% of Millennials—an 8-point gap, far smaller than the headline 18-point difference.

Why Do People Leave New York City?

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics

Date Posted:: December 12, 2025
Is Database:: Database

82% of NYC emigrants are not moving to Texas or Florida; they are moving to Long Island and Westchester. Aziz Sunderji suggests that lowering housing costs could help the city retain these workers.

The vast majority of NYC emigrants aren’t fleeing to Texas or Florida—they’re moving to Long Island and Westchester, citing housing as their primary motivation. These are not people who have given up on the New York metro area; they’re people who want more space, want to own rather than rent, or simply want a better home than they can afford in the five boroughs. Interstate movers are a different story. They tend to be younger, more educated, and childless—and they leave primarily for jobs. This cohort is harder to retain through housing policy alone; their departures reflect the pull of opportunity elsewhere rather than the push of inadequate housing. The policy implication is straightforward: New York City cannot compete with booming job markets in other cities or Miami’s climate. The four out of five emigrants from New York City who stay local are, in effect, still rooting for New York—they just need a place to live.

@CalculatedRisk The Case-Shiller National Index reported a record 20.6% year-over-year increase in March, marking the highest annual price change in over 35 years.

The median age of American first-time home buyers was 35 years old in 2025, up from 32 in 2015.

Related Articles:

As of 2024, American homeowners who bought a house within the last year were spending 26% of their income on housing, relative to 20% for existing homeowners – the largest gap in almost 40 years.

Related Articles:

The share of American 30-year-olds living with their parents or roommates nearly doubled btw 1990 and 2025, from 17% to 32%. Aziz Sunderji finds that this group is largely responsible for the age cohort’s 15pp decline in homeownership over that period.

Related Articles:

Post-1965, measured labor productivity in US construction averaged ~ -0.6% per year, compared to +1.6% economy-wide. GS attributes ~40% of the gap to tighter land-use rules, ~20% to weak innovation, and ~20% to mismeasurement of quality improvements.

Related Articles:

60% of millennials who are married and living apart from their parents at age 30 own a home, compared to 68% of comparable baby boomers. At 30, 42% of millennials are married, versus 64% of boomers.

Related Articles:

82% of NYC emigrants are not moving to Texas or Florida; they are moving to Long Island and Westchester. Aziz Sunderji suggests that lowering housing costs could help the city retain these workers.

Related Articles: