Edward Conard

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How Much Does Education Improve Intelligence?

AI Summary. A meta-analysis of 142 effect sizes from 42 data sets covering over 600,000 participants finds that an additional year of education is associated with a gain of roughly 1 to 5 IQ points. The authors report this association across multiple cognitive abilities, across the lifespan, and in three quasi-experimental designs.

Stuart Ritchie Science
Date Posted:
July 11, 2022
Is Database:
Database

Education boosts intelligence by 1-5 IQ points per year, according to a meta-analysis of 142 effect sizes from 42 data sets involving over 600,000 participants.

How much does an additional year of education raise IQ?

Core argument: A meta-analysis of 142 effect sizes from 42 data sets covering more than 600,000 participants finds an additional year of education is associated with a gain of roughly 1–5 IQ points.

A comprehensive meta-analysis of 142 effect sizes from 42 data sets involving over 600,000 participants reveals that an additional year of education is consistently associated with a gain of approximately 1 to 5 IQ points. This effect persists across various cognitive abilities and throughout the lifespan, highlighting education as a robust method for enhancing intelligence. The analysis utilized three quasi-experimental designs: control prior intelligence, policy change, and school-age cutoff, each demonstrating significant educational impacts on cognitive outcomes. For instance, the school-age cutoff design showed an average increase of 5.229 IQ points per additional year of education. These findings underscore the economic implications of investing in education as a means to boost cognitive skills, which are crucial for workforce productivity and economic growth.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. A meta-analysis of 142 effect sizes from 42 data sets covering more than 600,000 participants finds an additional year of education is associated with a gain of roughly 1–5 IQ points.
  2. The school-age cutoff design yielded an average increase of 5.229 IQ points per additional year of education, one of three quasi-experimental designs alongside control of prior intelligence and policy change, each showing significant educational effects on cognitive outcomes.
  3. The estimated education effect persists across various cognitive abilities and throughout the lifespan, underscoring the economic implications of investing in education to boost cognitive skills relevant to workforce productivity and economic growth.

Summery, “…Intelligence test scores and educational duration are positively correlated. This correlation could be interpreted in two ways: Students with greater propensity for intelligence go on to complete more education, or a longer education increases intelligence. We meta-analyzed three categories of quasi-experimental studies of educational effects on intelligence: those estimating education-intelligence associations after controlling for earlier intelligence, those using compulsory schooling policy changes as instrumental variables, and those using regression-discontinuity designs on school-entry age cutoffs. Across 142 effect sizes from 42 data sets involving over 600,000 participants,we found consistent evidence for beneficial effects of education on cognitive abilities of approximately 1 to 5 IQ points for an additional year of education.Moderator analyses indicated that the effects persisted across the life span and were present on all broad categories of cognitive ability studied. Education appears to be the most consistent, robust, and durable method yet to be identified for raising intelligence….”

Stuart Ritchie and Elliot Tucker-Drob, "How Much Does Education Improve Intelligence? A Meta-Analysis,"Psychological Science, 2018, https://labs.la.utexas.edu/tucker-drob/files/2019/08/Ritchie-Tucker-Drob-2018-Psych-Science-How-Much-Does-Education-Improve-Intelligence.pdf

“….Table 2 shows the results from each study design after the inclusion of multiple moderators. We included as many moderators as possible for each design, though we chose to include the “achievement” categorization of the outcome test for the school-age-cutoff design (instead of the alternative categorization involving composite, fluid, and crystallized tests, which we used for the other designs) because it had such a substantial effect in the single-moderator model. Including multiple moderators reduced the τ statistic—to a larger degree for the control-prior-intelligence design than for the others— though significant heterogeneity remained in all cases. The moderators that were individually significant (e.g., age in the control-prior-intelligence design or achievement tests in the school-age-cutoff design) were also significant in the multiple-moderator model, indicating that their effects were incremental of the other moderators that we included….”

“…We tested whether studies that included only male participants showed a differential educational effect. This was not the case for control prior intelligence (effect for the 2 male-only estimates: 2.261 IQ points, SE = 0.897, p =.012; effect for 24 mixed-sex estimates: 1.027 IQ points, SE = 0.110, p = 6.79×10−21; difference SE = 0.905, p =.173), or for policy change (effect for the 8 male-only estimates: 1.683 IQ points, SE = 0.507, p =.001; effect for 22 mixed-sex estimates: 2.215 IQ points, SE = 0.788, p =.005; difference SE = 0.941, p =.572). There were no male-only school-age-cutoff studies….”

Multiple moderators.

“….Splitting the outcome cognitive tests into three broad categories—composite, fluid, and crystallized tests—we tested whether the category moderated effect sizes. For the control-prior-intelligence design, there were stronger educational impacts on composite tests (1.876 IQ points, SE = 0.467, p = 5.94×10−05) than on fluid tests (0.836 points, SE = 0.097, p =.152), and the difference between composite and fluid was significant (1.039 points, SE = 0.496, p =.036).There was only one crystallized outcome test for the control-prior- intelligence design (1.893 points, SE = 0.348, p = 5.34×10−08), so we did not include it in the moderator comparison here. For the policy-change design, there were significant effects for both composite (2.314 IQ points, SE = 0.869, p =.008) and fluid (2.272 points, SE = 0.765, p =.003) but not crystallized (1.012 points, SE = 1.125, p =.368) tests; however, the effects on the three different categories were not significantly different from one another (all difference p values >.35). Finally, for the school-age-cutoff design, there were significant effects of a year of education on composite (6.534 points, SE = 2.433, p =.007), fluid (5.104 points, SE = 0.621, p = 2.05×10−16), and crystallized (5.428 points, SE = 0.170, p = 1.04×10−223) tests; there were, however, no significant differences between effect sizes across outcome types (difference p values >.5). We then split the outcome tests into “achievement” tests versus “other” tests. There was only one achievement test in the control-prior-intelligence design, so we did not run this analysis. For policy change, there was no significant difference in the educational effect on the 7 achievement tests (2.760 IQ points, SE = 0.968, p =.004) versus the 23 other tests (1.784 points, SE = 0.553, p =.001; difference SE = 1.011, p =.334). However, for school-age cutoff, which had the largest proportion of achievement tests (38 of the 86 tests were classed as achievement tests), achievement tests showed a substantially and significantly larger educational effect (6.231 points, SE = 0.339, p = 2.85×10−75) than other tests (3.839 points, SE = 0.412, p = 1.11×10−20; difference SE = 0.371, p = 1.19×10−10)….”

Male-only studies.

Outcome test category.

“…Figure 1 shows the effect sizes in the first two study designs as a function of the participants’ mean age at the outcome test. For the control- prior-intelligence studies, outcome age was a significant moderator: The effect size of education declined by −0.026 IQ points per year of age (SE = 0.012, p =.029). At the youngest age (18 years) the effect size of having had an additional year of education was 2.154 IQ points, whereas at the oldest age (83 years) the effect size was 0.485 IQ points. This effect was smaller but still significant if the largest effect size (> 3 IQ points for an additional year) was excluded (−0.011 IQ points per year of age, SE = 0.005, p =.018). There was no significant moderating effect of age at outcome for the policy-change studies (0.014 IQ points per year, SE = 0.022, p =.543): The effect at the youngest age (18 years; 1.690 IQ points) was not significantly different from the effect at the oldest age (71 years; 2.413 IQ points). There was comparatively little variation in the age at the outcome test for the school-age- cutoff design (SD = 1.6 years; see Table 1); there was no significant age moderation effect (−0.027 points per year, SE = 0.399, p =.947)….”

“…. For the policy-change design, we tested whether the age at which the educational policy change produced an increment in compulsory schooling moderated the intervention effect. This was not the case: The effect size increased by a nonsignificant 0.038 IQ points per year of age at the intervention (SE = 0.228, p =.867). The meta-regression model implied that at the youngest intervention age (7.5 years), the effect size was 1.765 IQ points, and at the oldest (19 years) it was 2.204 IQ points….”

Age at outcome test.

“…For the control-prior-intelligence design, we tested whether the age at which the participants had taken the initial (control) cognitive test, or the gap between this early test and the outcome test, moderated the effect size. The age at the early test, which did not vary substantially (see Table 1) was not significantly related to the effect size (−0.024 IQ points per year, SE = 0.064, p =.706). For the youngest early-test age (10 years), the meta-regression model indicated that the effect size of 1 additional year of education was 1.243 IQ points; for the oldest (16 years), the effect size was 1.099 IQ points. Conversely, the time lag between the tests was a significant moderator of the effect size (−0.031 IQ points per year, SE = 0.015, p =.033). This meta-regression indicated that at the smallest age gap (5 years), the effect size was 2.398 IQ points, whereas for the largest age gap (72.44 years), the effect size was a substantially smaller 0.317 IQ points. Note that this age gap is almost fully confounded with the age at the out- come test (r =.988), assessed as a moderator below….”

Age at intervention.

Age at early test and time lag between tests.

“…We analyzed results from the three most prominent quasi-experimental methods for testing the effects of education on intelligence. We defined intelligence as the score on a cognitive test; see below for consideration of how the test scores might relate to the underlying psychological processes. Each method implements a different approach to minimize effects stemming from selection processes. Full meta-analytic inclusion criteria are reported below, but first we describe each of the three designs, providing a canonical example of each..…. The first research design, which we label control prior intelligence, is a longitudinal study in which cognitive testing data are collected before and after variation in the duration of education. This allows the relation between education and the second test to be adjusted for by each participant’s earlier ability level. An example of this design is the study by Clouston et al. (2012), who analyzed data from three large U.S. and UK cohort studies, all of which had both an adolescent and a midlife cognitive test. Results indicated that completing a university education was linked to higher midlife cognitive ability, above and beyond adolescent intelligence….…The second design, policy change, relies on changes in educational duration that are, by all accounts, exogenous to the characteristics of the individuals. An example of this design is the study by Brinch and Galloway (2012), who used large-scale data from a 1960s educational reform in Norway. This reform increased compulsory education by 2 years; critically, it was staggered across municipalities in the country. This allowed the researchers to estimate the effect of an additional year of school on a later intelligence test, taken by males at entry to military service as part of Norway’s universal military draft. Under the assumption that the policy change affected intelligence only via increasing years of schooling, the authors used an instrumental-variables analysis to estimate the effect of 1 year of schooling on intelligence at approximately 3.7 points on a standard IQ scale (M = 100, SD = 15 in the population)….…The third design takes advantage of a school-age cutoff. These studies use regression-discontinuity analysis to leverage the fact that school districts implement a date-of-birth cutoff for school entry. The first study to use this method was by Baltes and Reinert (1969), but the most highly cited example is by Cahan and Cohen (1989), who, in a sample of over 12,000 children across three grades of the Israeli school system (between the ages of approximately 10-12 years), found that schooling exerted positive effects on all of 12 tests covering a variety of cognitive domains. These educational effects were around twice the effect of a year of age. The strict assumptions of this method are some- times not fully met (Cliffordson, 2010); methodological issues are discussed in more detail below….”

Their Evidence

“…In three separate unconditional random-effects meta- analytic models (one for each study design), we estimated the effect of 1 additional year of education on cognitive outcomes. For all three study designs, there was a significant effect of 1 additional year of education. For control prior intelligence, the effect was 1.197 IQ points (SE = 0.203, p = 3.84×10−09); for policy change, it was 2.056 IQ points (SE = 0.583, p = 4.23×10−04); and for school-age cutoff, it was 5.229 IQ points (SE = 0.530, p = 6.33×10−23). An overall model including all estimates from all three designs found an average effect size of 3.394 IQ points for 1 year of education (SE = 0.503, p = 1.55×10−11)….”

Types of Studies They Looked At

  • Test Scores
  • Comparisons
    • Skill Level
  • Science
    • Evolution/Heredity
  • Workforce
    • Education
Previous articleJune 29, 2022Four Facts About Human CapitalEducation plays a crucial role in labor earnings, with a 4-year college education yielding a 52% earnings premium, or 13% per year, according to @DavidDeming @nberpubs.Next articleJuly 12, 2022Cognitive and academic benefits of music training with children: A multilevel meta-analysisMusic training cognitive benefits debunked: Meta-analysis (n=6,984, 254 studies) shows zero effect size. Perceived gains (g=0.200) stem from study design flaws, not actual cognitive enhancement.
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PISA 2025 Results (Volume I)

AI Summary. International student assessment results show mathematics performance held near earlier levels for about 15 years before falling sharply, with mean scores down 9 points in math and about 14 in reading in the latest cycle. Reported student motivation and school engagement declined, and hasty incorrect answering rose to 11%.

OECD Staff Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Date Posted:
September 8, 2026
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Mean OECD math and reading scores fell roughly 25 PISA points—about a year of schooling—between 2018 and 2025, alongside reduced motivation and engagement and increased carelessness, exemplified by a near-doubling of “hasty readers.”

Are international student test scores falling alongside declining motivation and engagement?

Core argument: PISA 2025 mean performance fell by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 points in reading between 2022 and 2025, after mathematics scores had remained close to their 2003 level through 2018.

In math, performance remained close to the 2003 level up to 2018, then dropped sharply btw 2018 and 2025. Mean performance dropped by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 score points in reading btw 2022 and 2025. Over the 2018-2025 period, the largest drops [in reading] were among the most advantaged 25% of socio-economic status, and the socio-economic gap with the most disadvantaged students reduced somewhat, by 11 points, on average across 35 OECD countries. In mathematics, the share of disadvantaged students scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased in previous cycles and remained high in 2025; among advantaged students, the share scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased, reaching 18% in 2025, about 4pp. Students’ reports of their motivation for learning and engagement with school also declined between 2022 and 2025. The proportion of “hasty readers” – those who gave fast and incorrect responses – increased by about five percentage points, on average, from almost 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025. Analyses for math, also show an increase in the proportion of hasty responses between 2022 and 2025.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. PISA 2025 mean performance fell by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 points in reading between 2022 and 2025, after mathematics scores had remained close to their 2003 level through 2018.
  2. Over 2018–2025, the largest reading declines came among the most advantaged 25% by socio-economic status, and the gap with the most disadvantaged students narrowed by 11 points on average across 35 OECD countries.
  3. The share of "hasty readers," who gave fast and incorrect responses, rose about five percentage points, from almost 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025, with hasty responses in mathematics also increasing between 2022 and 2025.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Are China’s Students Really Number One? A Statistical Riddle — China's reported 65-point jump in mean international student test scores between testing rounds coincided with a change in which provinces represented the country, swapping the most populous province for a richer, much smaller one. The author argues such swings, including a fall in low performers from 43% to 19% in reading, are unmatched elsewhere.
  • Have Humans Passed Peak Brain Power? — The share of Americans reporting they read a book in the past year has fallen below half, alongside declining performance in numeracy and problem-solving in most countries. The share of adults unable to use mathematical reasoning to evaluate the validity of statements averages 25% in high-income countries and 35% in the US.
  • Test Scores
  • Workforce
    • Education
      • K-12

Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at a Public University System

AI Summary. A study of a large public urban university system finds that high school grade point average is a far stronger predictor of student academic success than SAT scores, contrasting with analyses of highly selective colleges that found the SAT superior. Under-represented minority students were less likely to graduate within six years at every grade point average level.

Theodore Joyce, Mina Afrouzi Khosroshahi, Sarah Truelsch, Kerstin Gentsch, et al. National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 25, 2026
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SAT scores are known to be better predictors of college and post-college success in Ivy+ universities. By contrast, this study of a public urban university system with 11 colleges shows that for the 2010–2019 cohort, high school GPA strongly dominates SAT scores.

Do high school grades predict college success better than test scores?

Core argument: In a study of 2010–2019 cohorts at a large public urban university system, high school GPA predicts student academic success far better than the SAT, contrary to analyses of Ivy-plus colleges that found the SAT superior.

Many of the country’s most selective colleges have returned to requiring the SAT, based on evidence that the test not only predicts student success, but facilitates the identification of qualified applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds. The results from our study of a large public urban university system find the opposite: high school grades are a vastly superior predictor of student academic success than is the SAT. We undertake an exercise with binned scatter plots of six year graduation rates against HSGPA [High School Grade Point Average] stratified by URM [under-represented minority] and whether the student received the maximum Pell grant (Figures 1a and 1b). [Note that SAT is included in the regression so the monotonic linear effect of GDP remains after controlling for SAT score]. We find that URM are less likely to graduate in six years at every level of HSGPA than are non-URM. In contrast, we find no similar difference when we stratify the plot by whether the student received the max Pell grant or not, a strong proxy for a low-income household (Figure 1b). The clear takeaway from the analysis of the 2010-2019 cohorts is the dominance of HSGPA in predicting student academic success. The results are in direct contrast to recent high-profile analyses of students from Ivy-plus colleges that demonstrated the superiority of SAT over HSGPA in predicting not only first-year academic outcomes, but post-college success as well.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. In a study of 2010–2019 cohorts at a large public urban university system, high school GPA predicts student academic success far better than the SAT, contrary to analyses of Ivy-plus colleges that found the SAT superior.
  2. Binned scatter plots of six-year graduation rates against high school GPA, controlling for SAT score, show under-represented minority students are less likely to graduate in six years at every level of high school GPA than non-URM students.
  3. Stratifying six-year graduation rates by receipt of the maximum Pell grant, a proxy for a low-income household, shows no similar gap to the one found between under-represented minority and non-URM students.

Related Articles:

  • Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges — Children from top-1% families are more than 2x as likely as middle-class students with comparable SAT/ACT scores to attend an Ivy-Plus college, with two-thirds of the gap attributable to higher admissions rates. The authors attribute this advantage to legacy preferences, weight on non-academic credentials, and athlete recruitment.
  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — The authors find a steady decline in U.S. Marine Corps officers' General Classification Test scores, which is statistically associated with the expansion of college attendance and explains 96% of the measured change. They also find a positive association between African American officers and mean test scores, arguing affirmative action has not lowered officer quality.
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Test Scores
  • Workforce
    • Education
      • College

The Lost Generation

AI Summary. White men's share of positions across US culture and technology industries declined markedly over roughly a decade: from 48% to 11.9% of lower-level TV writers, 39% to 18% of Harvard humanities tenure-track posts, nearly half to under a third of Google's workforce, and 55.8% to 33.8% of mid-level Amazon managers.

Jacob Savage Compact Magazine
Date Posted:
December 17, 2025
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Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and tech during the 2010s is a key driver of contemporary political dynamics among young men.

Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and...

How much has white men's share of culture and tech jobs fallen?

Core argument: White men fell from 48% of lower-level TV writers in 2011 to 11.9% in 2024, and from 39% of Harvard humanities tenure-track positions in 2014 to 18% in 2023.

In 2011, the year I moved to Los Angeles, white men were 48% of lower-level TV writers; by 2024, they accounted for just 11.9%. The Atlantic’s editorial staff went from 53% male and 89% white in 2013 to 36% male and 66% white in 2024. White men fell from 39% of tenure-track positions in the humanities at Harvard in 2014 to 18% in 2023. The white men shut out of the culture industries didn’t surge into other high-status fields. At Google, white men went from nearly half the workforce in 2014 to less than a third by 2024—a 34% decline. In 2014, at Amazon, entry-level “professionals”—college graduates just starting out—were 42.3% white male. These were the employees who, if they’d advanced normally over the next decade, would be the mid-level managers of today. But mid-level Amazon managers fell from 55.8% white male in 2014 to just 33.8% in 2024—a decline of nearly 40%. In retrospect, 2014 was the hinge, the year DEI became institutionalized across American life.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. White men fell from 48% of lower-level TV writers in 2011 to 11.9% in 2024, and from 39% of Harvard humanities tenure-track positions in 2014 to 18% in 2023.
  2. Mid-level Amazon managers went from 55.8% white male in 2014 to 33.8% in 2024, a decline of nearly 40%, while entry-level Amazon professionals were 42.3% white male in 2014.
  3. At Google, white men fell from nearly half the workforce in 2014 to under a third by 2024, a 34% decline, part of the author's case that 2014 was the hinge year when DEI became institutionalized.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — The authors find a steady decline in U.S. Marine Corps officers' General Classification Test scores, which is statistically associated with the expansion of college attendance and explains 96% of the measured change. They also find a positive association between African American officers and mean test scores, arguing affirmative action has not lowered officer quality.
  • US PISA Results By Subpopulation — On the international PISA student assessments, American Asian and White students ranked at the top, American Hispanic students outscored Hispanic students elsewhere, and American Black students performed well. In reading, American Asian students placed first and American White students third.
  • Test Scores
  • Politics
  • Workforce

Twelfth-Grade Math and Reading Scores in U.S. Hit New Low

AI Summary. U.S. twelfth-graders' average math and reading scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress fell to their lowest levels on record, with math the worst since that test began in 2005 and reading below any point since 1992. The share rated proficient slid 2 percentage points to 35% in reading and 22% in math.

Matt Barnum Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
September 9, 2025
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New National Assessment of Educational Progress results show the share of American high school seniors who scored basic or above on national tests fell to the lowest level on record: 68% in reading and 55% in math.

Have U.S. twelfth-grade math and reading scores fallen to record lows?

Core argument: U.S. twelfth-graders' average math score was the worst since the current National Assessment of Educational Progress math test began in 2005, and their reading score fell below any point since that assessment started in 1992.

American high-school seniors’ scores on major math and reading tests fell to their lowest levels on record, according to results released Tuesday by the U.S. Education Department. Twelfth-graders’ average math score was the worst since the current test began in 2005, and reading was below any point since that assessment started in 1992. The share of 12th-graders who were proficient slid by 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024—to 35% in reading and 22% in math. The results are from tests that are part of the National Assessment of Educational Progress, administered to tens of thousands of students in early 2024. In reading, two-thirds of seniors could determine the purpose of a persuasive essay, but only one in five was able to draw a conclusion from such an essay, supported by the text. In math, 60% of students deduced the population of an area using information on size and density, while just under half correctly turned a real-world scenario into an algebraic expression.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. twelfth-graders' average math score was the worst since the current National Assessment of Educational Progress math test began in 2005, and their reading score fell below any point since that assessment started in 1992.
  2. The share of U.S. 12th-graders scoring proficient fell 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024, to 35% in reading and 22% in math, according to results released by the U.S. Education Department.
  3. In reading, two-thirds of seniors could determine the purpose of a persuasive essay but only one in five could draw a text-supported conclusion from it, while in math just under half converted a real-world scenario into an algebraic expression.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Many Children Left Behind: The 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress Results Indicate a Five-Alarm Fire — The share of US fourth-grade students meeting the National Assessment of Educational Progress reading proficiency standard fell from 35% in 2019 to 33% in 2022 and 30% in 2024. More fourth-graders now score below the basic level than score proficient.
  • Have Humans Passed Peak Brain Power? — The share of Americans reporting they read a book in the past year has fallen below half, alongside declining performance in numeracy and problem-solving in most countries. The share of adults unable to use mathematical reasoning to evaluate the validity of statements averages 25% in high-income countries and 35% in the US.
  • Test Scores
  • Workforce
    • Education
      • K-12

Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges

AI Summary. An analysis of admissions and transcript records at Ivy-Plus colleges finds standardized test scores predict first-year college grades with a normalized slope 4x greater than high school grade point average, controlling for race, gender, and socioeconomic status. The authors find no evidence test scores underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds.

John Friedman, Bruce Sacerdote, Douglas Staiger, and Michele Tine National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 18, 2025
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Students at Ivy-plus colleges whose SAT/ACT scores were at the 99th percentile had 1st-year college GPAs 0.43 points higher than those who had scored at the 75th percentile, while high school GPAs had little predictive power. @John_N_Friedman

Do standardized test scores predict college grades better than high school GPA?

Core argument: Analyzing admissions and transcript records at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges, the authors find SAT/ACT scores predict first-year college grades with a normalized slope four times greater than high school GPA, conditional on race, gender, and socioeconomic status.

We analyze admissions and transcript records for students at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges to study the relationship between standardized (SAT/ACT) test scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades. Standardized test scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope four times greater than that from high school GPA, all conditional on students’ race, gender, and socioeconomic status. Standardized test scores do not underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds. Collectively these results suggest that standardized test scores provide important information to measure applicants’ academic preparation that is not available elsewhere in the application file. While some of the raw correlation between these variables relates to students’ demographic characteristics, much remains even when controlling for these variables. In contrast, high school GPA does not predict academic performance nearly as well. We also find no evidence of bias against students from less advantaged backgrounds, as students from such backgrounds do not outperform (and in some cases underperform) other students with the same test score

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Analyzing admissions and transcript records at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges, the authors find SAT/ACT scores predict first-year college grades with a normalized slope four times greater than high school GPA, conditional on race, gender, and socioeconomic status.
  2. Standardized test scores do not underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds, who do not outperform and in some cases underperform other students with the same test score.
  3. Much of the correlation between test scores and academic performance remains after controlling for demographic characteristics, which the authors suggest indicates test scores provide information on applicants' academic preparation not available elsewhere in the application file.

Related Articles:

  • Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges — Children from top-1% families are more than 2x as likely as middle-class students with comparable SAT/ACT scores to attend an Ivy-Plus college, with two-thirds of the gap attributable to higher admissions rates. The authors attribute this advantage to legacy preferences, weight on non-academic credentials, and athlete recruitment.
  • Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges — Using admissions records and first-year grades at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges, the authors find SAT and ACT scores substantially predict college academic success even among students with the same high school grades, while high school grade point average does little to predict it. Conditional on test scores, students from lower- and higher-resourced high schools have virtually identical college grades.
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
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    • Education

Can Gifted Education Help Higher-Ability Boys from Disadvantaged Backgrounds?

AI Summary. A regression discontinuity study of a large urban school district, where disadvantaged students qualify for gifted status at a lower IQ threshold, estimates that being identified as gifted raises the college entry rate of marginally eligible boys by 28 percentage points, from 46% to 74%. That matches the 74% rate of marginally ineligible girls, closing the gender gap.

David Card, Eric Chyn, and Laura Giuliano National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
February 21, 2025
Is Database:
Database

Card et al, find that the 25-30 percentage point college enrollment gap between disadvantaged boys and girls with IQs of ~116 closed among students who qualified for a “gifted” program. @EricChyn

Does gifted identification raise college entry for disadvantaged boys?

Core argument: Gifted identification raises the estimated college entry rate of marginally eligible disadvantaged boys by 28 percentage points, from 46% for those narrowly missing the threshold to 74%, in a large urban school district.

We study the effects of being identified as gifted in elementary school on subsequent test scores, courses and grades, and on the probability of entering college, for disadvantaged children in a large urban school district (“the District”). The law specifies a threshold of 130 [IQ] points for non-disadvantaged students, but allows districts to select a lower “Plan B” threshold [116 pts] for FRL and ELL students. The strict IQ threshold for gifted status provides the basis for a regression discontinuity (RD) evaluation of the impacts of being identified as gifted. Figure 6 illustrates how these impacts affect gender gaps by presenting the estimated mean potential outcomes for the complying boys (left side) and complying girls (right side) using an 8-point bandwidth. The estimated college entry rate for male compliers who narrowly miss the gifted threshold is 46%; the 28 ppt treatment effect of passing the threshold raises this to 74%, which equals the rate for female compliers who narrowly miss the threshold - being identified as gifted raises the college entry rate of marginally eligible boys to the same rate as girls.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Gifted identification raises the estimated college entry rate of marginally eligible disadvantaged boys by 28 percentage points, from 46% for those narrowly missing the threshold to 74%, in a large urban school district.
  2. The estimated 74% college entry rate for marginally eligible boys identified as gifted equals the rate for female compliers who narrowly miss the threshold.
  3. The study uses a regression discontinuity design around the IQ threshold for gifted status, 130 points for non-disadvantaged students and a "Plan B" threshold of 116 points for free-lunch and English-learner students.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Skills and Human Capital in the Labor Market — Labor market earnings are strongly associated with measures of personality traits and preferences, and over the last two decades returns to cognitive skills have been flat or declined in the US, Sweden, and Finland while returns to "soft" skills such as conscientiousness, extraversion, emotional stability, and social skills have grown rapidly.
  • Multidimensional Human Capital and the Wage Structure — The wage return to cognitive skills has declined, from about 10% higher hourly wages per standard deviation of test score in the 1980s and early 1990s to 4.5% in the 2000s and early 2010s, while returns to a bachelor's degree rose. Social skill-intensive occupations grew as a share of US jobs, with faster real wage growth.
  • Test Scores
  • Workforce
    • Education
      • K-12
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