Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Analysis of English genealogical records and marriage registries estimates that the underlying correlation in social status across generations is close to 0.8, with status correlation detectable even among relatives nine generations apart. The authors find this persistence unchanged over four centuries, concluding that policies aimed at raising social mobility have not altered it.

Gregory Clark Southern Denmark University
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

Clark estimates that the intergenerational correlation of relative socioeconomic status in England remained ~0.8 btw 1600 and 2026. The pattern of correlations across near and distant relatives fits a model of genetic inheritance with strong assortative mating.

How persistent is social status across generations in England?

Core argument: Drawing on a genealogical database of 436,185 English people spanning 1600–2026 and records of about 1.7 million English marriages from 1837–2022, the authors estimate the underlying intergenerational correlation in social status at close to 0.8, higher than conventional measures indicate.

A large genealogical database of [436,185] English people 1600-2026, as well as detailed records of [~1.7mn marriages] in England 1837-2022, [reveals] social status is much more persistent across generations than conventionally measured. The [inferred] underlying correlation in status across generations is close to 0.8, implying that even relatives as distant as nine generations apart still show correlation in social status. [Ratios of correlations among siblings, parents, aunts/uncles and cousins cancel common measurement-error attenuation: raw parent-child correlations average .39, versus .77 for inferred underlying persistence. Independently, surnames selected as elite by 1858-87 wealth yield a per-generation status persistent coefficient of b=.82 for occupational status and .80 for house value]. The strength of status persistence remains unchanged 1600-2026.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Drawing on a genealogical database of 436,185 English people spanning 1600–2026 and records of about 1.7 million English marriages from 1837–2022, the authors estimate the underlying intergenerational correlation in social status at close to 0.8, higher than conventional measures indicate.
  2. The estimated correlation in social status implies that relatives as distant as nine generations apart still show correlated status, with the strength of persistence unchanged from 1600 to 2026.
  3. The authors argue that the Industrial Revolution, the Demographic Transition, the emancipation of women, universal voting, and the modern welfare state have not increased English social mobility rates, and that resources poured into raising mobility have achieved nothing.

Related Articles:

  • The Inheritance Of Social Status: England, 1600 to 2022 — Using a genealogical database of 422,374 English people with rarer surnames, the authors find social status persists strongly even among distant relatives, with status correlations declining by a constant factor of 0.79 per step in the lineage across all status measures and eras studied. The authors argue this constancy suggests social interventions have modest effects.
  • The Myth of Nordic Mobility: Social Mobility Rates in Modern Denmark and Sweden — Correcting for measurement error by using relative rather than absolute correlations among relatives, the authors estimate that educational intergenerational mobility in Denmark and Sweden is much lower than conventionally measured, with parent-child and sibling correlations much higher. They argue Nordic education spending and income compression have at best modestly reduced families' role in children's educational outcomes.
  • For Whom the Bell Curve Tolls: A Lineage of 400,000 English Individuals 1750-2020 Shows Genetics Determines Most Social Outcomes — A study of 402,000 English individuals across 1750–2020 estimates an intergenerational occupational status correlation of 0.88 and a genetic correlation between spouses of 0.76, which the authors interpret as a strong genetic basis for the persistence of social status. The authors argue that highly assortative mating around status genetics limits what policy can do to raise social mobility.
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