Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. The El Niño warming phase, which can temporarily raise global temperatures and drive extreme weather, is forecast to give way to a neutral stage and then the cooler La Niña pattern, which should bring temperatures down. How much El Niño lifted temperatures is not yet clear; a smaller-than-expected drop could signal a step change in the rate of global warming.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:

In June 2023 the world entered an “El Niño” phase, which is associated with higher global temperatures. Transition to the cooler “La Niña” phase between July and September will provide insights into the underlying rate of global warming.

How much did a natural warming cycle raise global temperatures?

Core argument: The world entered an El Niño phase in June 2023, a natural cycle within the El Niño Southern Oscillation that can temporarily raise temperatures and drive extreme weather anomalies.

In June 2023 the world entered an “El Niño” phase. This natural climate cycle (part of a pattern known as El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO) can temporarily boost temperatures and cause extreme weather anomalies. In April the Australian Bureau of Meteorology announced that the Pacific Ocean was cooling substantially, which is generally a sign that El Niño is on its way out. Forecast models point to an imminent transition to a neutral stage, and predict that the world is likely to enter La Niña (the cooler pattern) some time between July and September. That should start bringing temperatures down towards the end of the year. El Niño has pushed temperatures up even higher, but it is not yet obvious by how much. That should become clearer in the next cycle: if temperatures do not drop by as much as expected, it could signal a step change in the rate of global warming. There is no consensus yet on what would be behind such a change.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The world entered an El Niño phase in June 2023, a natural cycle within the El Niño Southern Oscillation that can temporarily raise temperatures and drive extreme weather anomalies.
  2. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology announced in April that the Pacific Ocean was cooling substantially, generally a sign El Niño is ending, and forecast models point to a neutral stage and a likely shift to La Niña between July and September.
  3. How much El Niño pushed temperatures up is not yet obvious, and if temperatures fail to drop as much as expected in the next cycle, that could signal a step change in the rate of global warming, with no consensus yet on its cause.

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