Edward Conard

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Meet Willow, Our State-of-the-Art Quantum Chip

AI Summary. Google reports that its Willow quantum chip completed a random circuit sampling benchmark computation in under five minutes that one of today's fastest supercomputers would take an estimated 10^25 years to perform. The benchmark is described as the classically hardest test currently runnable on a quantum computer.

Hartmut Neven Google
Date Posted:
December 10, 2024

Google’s Hartmut Neven notes that the performance of Willow, their new quantum computing chip, “lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs in many parallel universes, in line with the idea that we live in a multiverse.”

Can a quantum chip outperform supercomputers on the hardest known benchmark?

Core argument: Google's Willow quantum chip completed a random circuit sampling computation in under five minutes that, according to Google, would take one of today's fastest supercomputers 10^25 years, vastly exceeding the age of the universe.

As a measure of Willow’s performance, we used the random circuit sampling (RCS) benchmark. Pioneered by our team and now widely used as a standard in the field, RCS is the classically hardest benchmark that can be done on a quantum computer today. We’ve consistently used this benchmark to assess progress from one generation of chip to the next — we reported Sycamore results in October 2019 and again recently in October 2024. Willow’s performance on this benchmark is astonishing: It performed a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 1025 or 10 septillion years. This mind-boggling number exceeds known timescales in physics and vastly exceeds the age of the universe. It lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs in many parallel universes, in line with the idea that we live in a multiverse, a prediction first made by David Deutsch.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Google's Willow quantum chip completed a random circuit sampling computation in under five minutes that, according to Google, would take one of today's fastest supercomputers 10^25 years, vastly exceeding the age of the universe.
  2. Random circuit sampling, pioneered by Google's team and now a standard in the field, is the classically hardest benchmark that can be run on a quantum computer today, with Sycamore results reported in October 2019 and October 2024.
  3. Google argues Willow's benchmark result lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs in many parallel universes, in line with the multiverse prediction first made by David Deutsch.

Related Articles:

  • Quantum Error Correction Below the Surface Code Threshold — Researchers report superconducting quantum processors running surface code memories below the error-correction threshold, with the logical error rate suppressed 2.14x per two-step increase in code distance and a 101-qubit code reaching 0.143% error per cycle. The logical memory outlived its best physical qubit by 2.4x.
  • Learning High-Accuracy Error Decoding For Quantum Processors — Researchers developed a recurrent, transformer-based neural network that decodes the surface code, the leading quantum error-correction code, and report it outperforms other state-of-the-art decoders on data from Google's Sycamore quantum processor and on simulated data with realistic noise. The authors argue machine learning can surpass human-designed decoding algorithms by learning directly from data.
  • Quantum Computing Advance Begins New Era, IBM Says — IBM researchers report that a 127-qubit quantum processor simulated the magnetic behavior of 127 atom-scale bar magnets, a problem too complex for an exact answer on the largest supercomputers. Because quantum noise made each sub-millisecond calculation unreliable, the computation was repeated 600,000 times to converge on an answer.
  • Science
  • Productivity
    • Innovation/Research
    • Investment
Previous articleDecember 10, 2024Quantum Error Correction Below the Surface Code ThresholdGoogle is releasing Willow, a quantum computing chip that can solve in less than 5 minutes a computation that would take the current leading supercomputer over 10 septillion years (10^25) “a number that vastly exceeds the age of the Universe.”Next articleDecember 10, 2024Careers and Wages in Family Firms: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee DataA 14-year study of 20mm Italian workers finds that family-owned firms have ~ 16% lower wages than non-family-owned firms, not due to differential productivity or amenities. Fewer promotions in family firms suggest efforts to maintain family control.
Showing 10 database articles primarily about Science

Ancient DNA Reveals Pervasive Directional Selection Across West Eurasia

AI Summary. Analysis of ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians estimates selection coefficients at 9.7m genetic variants and finds pervasive directional selection, including increases in genetic scores for light skin pigmentation and negative selection against variants linked to type 2 diabetes risk and psychoses such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

Ali Akbari, Annabel Perry, Alison Barton, Mohammadreza Kariminejad, et al. Nature
Date Posted:
April 16, 2026
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians reveals that natural selection accelerated dramatically in the past 10,000 years, following the agricultural revolution. The strongest selection drove improved immune function and lighter skin pigmentation.

Has human genetic selection continued to shape traits across West Eurasia?

Core argument: Applying a new test for directional selection to ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians, 10,016 with newly reported data, the authors estimate selection coefficients at 9.7 million variants to study how selection shapes the genetic architecture of complex traits.

We present a method for detecting directional selection in ancient DNA time-series data that tests for consistent trends in allele frequency change over time, and apply it to 15,836 West Eurasians (10,016 with new data). We estimate selection coefficients at 9.7 million variants, enabling study of how Darwinian forces couple to allelic effects and shape the genetic architecture of complex traits. We focused on 12 traits of particular interest with significant signals from all three tests (Figure 4). One of the strongest signals is an increase over time in the PGS for light skin pigmentation. Type 2 diabetes risk factors give compelling signals of negative selection. We detected negative polygenic selection against alleles associated today with psychoses such as bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. We finally observed signals of selection for combinations of alleles that today are associated with three correlated behavioural traits: scores on intelligence tests, household income and years of schooling. An important caveat is [that] these effects were measured in industrialized societies, and it remains unclear how these relate to phenotypes that were adaptive in the past.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Applying a new test for directional selection to ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians, 10,016 with newly reported data, the authors estimate selection coefficients at 9.7 million variants to study how selection shapes the genetic architecture of complex traits.
  2. Among 12 traits with significant signals from all three tests, one of the strongest is an increase over time in the polygenic score for light skin pigmentation, alongside negative selection on type 2 diabetes risk factors and on alleles associated today with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia.
  3. The authors observed signals of selection on combinations of alleles associated today with intelligence test scores, household income, and years of schooling, while cautioning that these effects were measured in industrialized societies and their relation to past adaptive phenotypes remains unclear.

Related Articles:

  • Pervasive Findings of Directional Selection Realize the Promise of Ancient DNA to Elucidate Human Adaptation — Analyzing ancient DNA for consistent trends in gene-variant frequency over time, the authors report that many hundreds of gene variants were affected by strong directional selection over the last ten millennia. They identify selection for variant combinations today associated with lighter skin color, lower schizophrenia and bipolar risk, slower health decline, and higher intelligence-test scores, income, and schooling.
  • Animal Mutation Rates Reveal Traits That Speed Evolution — An analysis of 68 vertebrate species published in Nature found germline mutation rates varied about 40-fold per generation but roughly 120-fold per year, a wider range than earlier studies suggested. The authors found species with larger effective population sizes had lower mutation rates, evidence for the "drift-barrier hypothesis" that natural selection weakens against mutation in smaller populations.
  • Frontiers Evolutionary Trajectories of Complex Traits in European Populations of Modern Humans — Genome-wide polygenic scores indicate European populations after the Neolithic period show increases in height, educational attainment, and intelligence scores, alongside decreases in scores for unipolar depression. The authors associate this shift from relative stagnation to accelerated evolutionary change with the spread of agriculture and animal domestication.
  • Science
    • Evolution/Heredity
  • Workforce
    • Education
      • Test Scores
    • Inequality

Self-Selection and the Diminishing Returns of Research

AI Summary. The authors argue much of research's declining productivity is a transitional composition effect: the share of the labor force in research has tripled since the 1960s, and if researchers are positively selected on ability, that expansion lowered their average ability. Separating transitional from permanent diminishing returns nearly doubles predicted long-run per capita income growth.

Lorenz Ekerdt and Kai-Jie Wu Working Paper
Date Posted:
December 9, 2024
Is Database:
Database

Ekerdt and Wu argue that the diminishing returns to research since the 1960s is a result of the 3X increase in the share of the labor force employed in research, which resulted in a transitional decline in the “average ability among researchers.”

Does expanding the research workforce explain falling research productivity?

Core argument: The authors show the share of the labor force employed in research has risen 3-fold since the 1960s, an expansion they argue could not occur without lowering researchers' average ability if workers sort into sectors by ability.

We argue that a substantial portion of the declining productivity of research is the product of a transitional composition effect instead of a permanent phenomenon. We show that the share of the labor force employed in research has increased 3-fold since the 1960s. If workers are sorted into sectors according to ability, this rapid expansion cannot have been achieved without changing the average ability among researchers. If research is positively selected on ability, i.e., workers with a comparative advantage in research also tend to have an absolute advantage in research, the direction of this change is unambiguously negative. This source of diminishing returns is transitional because it is expected to fade away when the share of workers employed in research ceases to rise. Our results suggest that the average ability of researchers has fallen substantially. We find that separating transitional diminishing returns from permanent ones nearly doubles the long-run growth rate of per capita income predicted by a broad class of growth models.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The authors show the share of the labor force employed in research has risen 3-fold since the 1960s, an expansion they argue could not occur without lowering researchers' average ability if workers sort into sectors by ability.
  2. The authors argue much of research's declining productivity is a transitional composition effect that fades once the research employment share stops rising, not a permanent phenomenon, and find average researcher ability has fallen substantially.
  3. Separating transitional from permanent diminishing returns nearly doubles the long-run growth rate of per capita income predicted by a broad class of growth models, according to the authors.

Related Articles:

  • Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? — The authors estimate U.S. research productivity has fallen by a factor of 41 since the 1930s, averaging declines above 5% per year across sectors. Sustaining constant growth in output per person requires doubling research effort every 13 years, challenging growth models that assume constant research productivity.
  • Something Is Getting Harder But It’s Not Finding Ideas — The number of researchers in the US economy has grown to 23x its 1930 level while the economy's growth rate has been constant or declining, contradicting the assumption that constant research input yields a constant growth rate. Bloom et al. explain this divergence by assuming ideas get harder to find as more are discovered.
  • Science is Getting Harder — A growing "burden of knowledge" is making scientific breakthroughs harder, with the share of recent discoveries recognized as Nobel-worthy falling from about 90% before the 1970s to about 50% by 2015 even as the numbers of scientists and publications rose. Sustaining progress appears to require escalating research spending, expertise, and collaboration.
  • Science
  • Productivity
    • Innovation/Research

The Next Battle in Higher Ed May Strike at Its Soul: Scholarship

AI Summary. International retractions of research papers rose from about 400 in 2010 to more than 10,000 in 2023, an annual record, according to the journal Nature, which attributes part of the increase to paper-writing mills. Watchdog groups including Retraction Watch, the Center for Open Science, and Data Colada now scrutinize published research.

Anemona Hartocollis The New York Times
Date Posted:
January 16, 2024
Is Database:
Database

Over 10,000 research papers were retracted in 2023 globally according to @Nature, up from 400 in 2010. The retractions are due to both increased scrutiny but also the rise of “paper writing mills” or low-quality journals.

Over 10,000 research papers were retracted in 2023 globally according to @Nature, up from 400 in 2010.  The retractions are...

Are retractions of research papers rising sharply?

Core argument: Retracted research papers exceeded 10,000 internationally in 2023, an annual record, up from about 400 in 2010, according to the journal Nature.

A cottage industry of checking research papers sprung up in the last two decades, including Retraction Watch, the Center for Open Science, and Data Colada, a blog dedicated to unmasking research based on bad data. The number of retracted research papers has grown dramatically over time, to more than 10,000 retractions internationally in 2023, an annual record, according to the journal Nature, up from about 400 papers in 2010, when Retraction Watch began its work. This may be in part because the scrutiny has intensified, said Ivan Oransky, co-founder of Retraction Watch. Nature also blamed the rise of paper-writing mills. “What’s different this time is the levels at which this seems to be striking — Harvard and Stanford,” Dr. Oransky said. “These are cataclysmic events.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Retracted research papers exceeded 10,000 internationally in 2023, an annual record, up from about 400 in 2010, according to the journal Nature.
  2. Nature attributed part of the rise in retractions to paper-writing mills, while Retraction Watch co-founder Ivan Oransky said intensified scrutiny may also play a part.
  3. A cottage industry of research checking has emerged over two decades, including Retraction Watch, the Center for Open Science, and Data Colada, with Oransky saying cases now strike Harvard and Stanford.

Related Articles:

  • A Looming Retraction Casts a Shadow Over a Field of Physics — A major physics journal is retracting a paper on how a chemical compound transforms when compressed between diamonds, co-led by a University of Rochester physicist who also claimed to have discovered a room-temperature superconductor. While the researcher defends the work, some scientists who reviewed reports on it say the data submitted were falsified.
  • The U.S. Is Turning Away From Its Biggest Scientific Partner at a Precarious Time — More than 40% of high-quality U.S. scientific papers involve collaboration with researchers abroad, and China and the U.S. are each other's largest research partners, with their joint work consistently among the most-cited across fields. In some strategic areas, analysis of publication data finds the U.S. depends on China more than China depends on the U.S.
  • Science

Florida Ocean Temperatures At ‘Downright Shocking’ Levels

AI Summary. Much of Florida is recording its warmest year on record, with temperatures 3–5 degrees above normal and coastal waters in the Florida Keys reaching 92–96 degrees versus the more typical upper 80s. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports about 40% of the world's oceans face a marine heat wave, the highest share on record.

Dan Stillman Washington Post
Date Posted:
July 11, 2023
Is Database:
Database

Coastal waters in Florida are currently between 92 and 96 degrees vs. typical averages in the upper 80s. About 40% of the world’s oceans are facing a marine heat wave according to @NOAA.

How warm have Florida's coastal waters and oceans worldwide become?

Core argument: Water temperatures in the Florida Keys have reached 92 to 96 degrees, which meteorologist Bob Henson called "downright shocking"; WFLA-TV chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli said such waters are more typically in the upper 80s.

Much of Florida is seeing its warmest year on record, with temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees above normal. While some locations have been setting records since the beginning of the year, the hottest weather has come with an intense heat dome cooking the Sunshine State in recent weeks. That heat dome has made coastal waters extremely warm, including “downright shocking” temperatures of 92 to 96 degrees in the Florida Keys, meteorologist and journalist Bob Henson said Sunday in a tweet. “That’s boiling for them! More typically it would be in the upper 80s,” tweeted Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at WFLA-TV in Tampa. The hot waters around Florida are connected to record-breaking ocean heat worldwide. About 40 percent of the world’s oceans are facing a marine heat wave, NOAA reported. That is the highest percentage on record, and it could reach 50 percent by September.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Water temperatures in the Florida Keys have reached 92 to 96 degrees, which meteorologist Bob Henson called "downright shocking"; WFLA-TV chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli said such waters are more typically in the upper 80s.
  2. Much of Florida is seeing its warmest year on record, with temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees above normal and an intense heat dome bringing the hottest weather in recent weeks.
  3. NOAA reported that about 40 percent of the world's oceans face a marine heat wave, the highest percentage on record, and that share could reach 50 percent by September.

Related Articles:

  • Climate Shocks Are Making Parts of America Uninsurable. It Just Got Worse — State Farm, California's largest homeowner insurer, stopped accepting applications for most new home insurance policies statewide, citing rapidly growing catastrophe exposure. Florida faced a similar retreat by national carriers after Hurricane Andrew and responded with a market of small insurers backed by a state-mandated company providing windstorm coverage to homeowners who cannot obtain private insurance.
  • Global Temperatures Have Broken Records Three Times In A Week — Average global air temperature set new records three times within a single week. Aside from global warming, the biggest influence on Earth's temperature is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and because past highs have typically come near the end of a strong El Niño, the recent switch to El Niño is unlikely to explain these records.
  • Science
    • Global Warming

Earth Keeps Breaking Temperature Records Due to Global Warming

AI Summary. The average worldwide temperature reached a record 17C (63F), surpassing the prior record of 16.9C, and then climbed to 17.2C a day later, according to data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

Will Mathis and Aaron Clark Bloomberg
Date Posted:
July 5, 2023
Is Database:
Database

The world’s global mean temperature reached a record 63°F on July 4th, topping a previous record of 62°F set in 2016.

Are global average temperatures setting new record highs?

Core argument: The average worldwide temperature reached 17C (63F) on Monday, just above the previous record of 16.9C set in August 2016, according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

The average worldwide temperature reached 17C (63F) on Monday, just above the previous record of 16.9C in August 2016, according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The threshold only lasted a day. On Tuesday, the average temperature hit 17.2C.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The average worldwide temperature reached 17C (63F) on Monday, just above the previous record of 16.9C set in August 2016, according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
  2. The 17C mark held for only a day, as the global average temperature reached 17.2C on Tuesday.

Related Articles:

  • Antarctic Sea Ice Has Shrunk By An Area Nine Times The Size Of Britain — Antarctic sea ice cover fell to 10.7m square km, 1.15m square km below the prior record low for that date and 2.3m square km below the 1981–2010 average. Scientists have not established why sea ice around the continent dropped so steeply after an earlier period of growth.
  • Science
    • Global Warming

Nonreplicable publications are cited more than replicable ones

AI Summary. A study of top psychology, economics, and general interest journals finds that papers failing to replicate are cited more than those that replicate, with only 12% of later citations acknowledging the replication failure. The authors argue nonreplicable papers get published because journals trade off reproducibility standards against how interesting results appear.

Marta Serra-Garcia Science
Date Posted:
June 15, 2021
Is Database:
Database

Research in @ScienceAdvances finds papers that fail to replicate receive more citations than those that do replicate, even after publication of replication failures.

Do papers that fail to replicate receive more citations?

Core argument: Papers in top psychology, economics, and general interest journals that fail to replicate receive more citations than those that do replicate, according to a study in Science Advances.

A study in Science Advances reveals that papers in top psychology, economics, and general interest journals that fail to replicate receive more citations than those that do replicate. This trend persists even after the publication of replication failures, with only 12% of subsequent citations acknowledging these failures. The quality of citations for nonreplicable papers is comparable to replicable ones, as measured by the impact factor of citing journals. Experts can predict which papers will replicate, yet nonreplicable papers are often published due to a trade-off between the perceived interest of results and reproducibility standards. This suggests a systemic issue in academic publishing where the allure of novel findings outweighs the importance of scientific rigor, potentially skewing economic and policy decisions based on unreliable data.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Papers in top psychology, economics, and general interest journals that fail to replicate receive more citations than those that do replicate, according to a study in Science Advances.
  2. Only 12% of citations to nonreplicable papers published after replication failures acknowledge those failures, and the impact factor of citing journals is comparable for nonreplicable and replicable papers.
  3. The Science Advances study reports that experts can predict which papers will replicate, and attributes publication of nonreplicable papers to a trade-off between the perceived interest of results and reproducibility standards.

New paper from Science Advances highlights the replication problem in science, “….We use publicly available data to show that published papers in top psychology, economics, and general interest journals that fail to replicate are cited more than those that replicate. This difference in citation does not change after the publication of the failure to replicate. Only 12% of post replication citations of nonreplicable findings acknowledge the replication failure. Existing evidence also shows that experts predict well which papers will be replicated. Given this prediction, why are nonreplicable papers accepted for publication in the first place? A possible answer is that the review team faces a trade-off. When the results are more “interesting,” they apply lower standards regarding their reproducibility….”

Core result, “…Our main finding is that papers that fail to replicate in (5-7) are cited more than those that are replicable. We find no significant change in citation trends, even after the publication of the failed replication. Notably, only a minority of publications after the failed replications were published acknowledge the failure. The “quality” of citations of papers that failed to replicate is similar to that of papers that were replicated: We do not find a difference in how often the citations of nonreplicable publications are cited by others or in the impact factor of the journals in which citations are published…”

The evidence, "...Figure 1 shows the distribution of total citation counts by the end of 2019 of the papers included in the replication projects, separately depending on replicability for Nature/Science, economics journals, and psychology journals. Replicability is measured according to the criterion that the replication project featured a P value of 0.05 or lower in a two-sided test, with an effect in the same direction as the original test….”

Nonreplicable publications are cited more than replicable ones: Extended Excerpt Image 1


Marta Serra-Garcia and Uri Gneezy, "Nonreplicable publications are cited more than replicable ones,"Science Advances, May 21, 2021, https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/21/eabd1705

  • Science
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