Edward Conard

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Our Education Efforts Are Evolving

AI Summary. U.S. national education averages mask wide gaps: white students score at levels comparable to top-performing countries such as Finland and Korea, while Black and Latino students perform closer to lower-performing countries such as Chile and Greece. Closing these gaps requires targeted reforms including high-quality curricula, professional development, and data-driven interventions.

Bill Gates GatesNotes
Date Posted:
November 20, 2017
Is Database:
Database

White students have achievement comparable to countries like Finland and Korea.

White students have achievement comparable to countries like Finland and Korea.

Do national education averages hide wide achievement gaps between student groups?

Core argument: White students in the U.S. achieve at levels comparable to top-performing countries such as Finland and Korea, even as U.S. national averages suggest lagging performance.

The performance of white students in the U.S. aligns with top-performing countries like Finland and Korea, highlighting a dual narrative in American education. While national averages suggest lagging performance, disaggregated data reveals that white students achieve at levels comparable to global leaders. This disparity underscores the need for targeted educational reforms to bridge the gap for Black and Latino students, who perform comparably to students in lower-performing OECD countries like Chile and Greece. Addressing these disparities is crucial for enhancing economic mobility and ensuring the U.S. remains competitive globally. Investments in high-quality curricula, professional development, and data-driven interventions are essential to elevate overall student achievement and prepare all students for future workforce demands.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. White students in the U.S. achieve at levels comparable to top-performing countries such as Finland and Korea, even as U.S. national averages suggest lagging performance.
  2. Black and Latino students in the U.S. perform comparably to students in lower-performing OECD countries such as Chile and Greece, according to disaggregated data.
  3. Investments in high-quality curricula, professional development, and data-driven interventions are presented as essential to closing U.S. achievement gaps, supporting economic mobility, and sustaining global competitiveness.

more interesting part of Gates’s comments,

“…lagging performance of American students overall, the national averages mask a bigger story. When disaggregated by race, we see two Americas. One where white students perform along the lines of the best in the world—with achievement comparable to countries like Finland and Korea. And another America, where Black and Latino students perform comparably to the students in the lowest performing OECD countries, such as Chile and Greece…..”

Thank you.

Our role is to serve as a catalyst of good ideas, driven by the same guiding principle we started with: all students – but especially low-income students and students of color – must have equal access to a great public education that prepares them for adulthood. We will not stop until this has been achieved, and we look forward to continued partnership with you in this work in the years to come.

If there is one thing I have learned, it is that no matter how enthusiastic we might be about one approach or another, the decision to go from pilot to wide-scale usage is ultimately and always something that has to be decided by you and others the field.

I’m also hopeful this will attract other funders focused on particular approaches or who work in one state or community.

Giving schools and districts more flexibility is more likely to lead to solutions that fit the needs of local communities and are potentially replicable elsewhere.

Education is, without a doubt, one of the most challenging areas we invest in as a foundation. But I’m excited about the shift in our work and the focus on partnering with networks of schools.

Over the last 17 years, we have invested $1 billion in the cities represented in the room in support of school improvement and redesign efforts. We are proud of that work and have seen some good things come out of it that make me optimistic about the future.

We will continue to help high-performing charters expand to serve more students. But our emphasis will be on efforts that improve outcomes for special needs students – especially kids with mild-to-moderate learning and behavioral disabilities. This is a critical problem across the education sector, and we believe that charters have the flexibility to help the field solve this problem.

We anticipate that the final 15 percent of our funding in the next five years will go to the charter sector.

We are also interested in what role we can play to prepare students for the dramatic changes underway in the workforce. We have to make work-related experiences a consistent part of high schools in ways that build student engagement and relevant skills, and that put young people on a path to credentials with labor market value in our future economy.

Math is one area where we want to generate stronger evidence about what works. What would it take, for example, to get all kids to mastery of Algebra I? What kinds of intelligent tools do teachers and students need to get there? And how might we design these in partnership with the best math teachers in the country?

But the PreK-12 research, development and translation ecosystem is underfunded and fragmented, with less than 1 percent of total government spending in public education focused on R&D.

The conditions for developing and spreading new approaches in education, particularly technology-enabled ones, are better than ever. Broadband access in schools is reaching 90 percent. Students and teachers have access to more affordable and more powerful tools for learning. Educators are seeking each other out and sharing ideas in digital communities. And there are promising developments in neuroscience, cognitive psychology, and behavioral economics.

We expect that about 25 percent of our funding in the next five years will focus on big bets – innovations with the potential to change the trajectory of public education over the next 10 to 15 years.

In Washington DC, the school district has developed an innovative professional development program that is discipline-specific, curricula-aligned, and focused on improving teachers’ instructional skills at the school level. Teachers meet weekly with a coach who is an expert in the subjects they teach. They also meet in small groups with colleagues who teach the same subject to talk through lesson plans, what’s working, and how to adjust their instruction accordingly. While still early, 87 percent of teachers say the collaboration and feedback is improving their practice and knowledge.

Louisiana is a great example of where aligned curricula and professional development is helping teachers. 80 percent of districts have adopted fully aligned curricula in grades 3 through 8. And the state has created a marketplace of preferred professional development service providers to help schools implement these curricula effectively. Teachers report that they feel more equipped to help students meet the standards—for example, by closely reading texts for meaning.

Our goal is to work with the field to ensure that five years from now, teachers at every grade level in secondary schools have access to high-quality, aligned curriculum choices in English and math, as well as science curricula based on the Next Generation Science Standards. In a few places, we also will support pilots of scalable professional development supports anchored in high quality curriculum.

We also know that high-quality curricula can improve student learning more than many costlier solutions, and it has the greatest impact with students of novice and lower performing teachers. We also know it has the greatest impact when accompanied by professional learning and coaching.

We’ll also work with teacher and leader prep providers to ensure that these lessons and best practices are incorporated into local programs to further enrich and sustain this work.

We will work with partners to document these change efforts in schools and networks and ask them to share the lessons learned with others.

But we will leave it up to each network to decide what approaches they believe will work best to address their biggest challenges. They might decide, for example, to focus on student interventions in middle school… or adapting new and more rigorous curricula… or improving support for certain groups of students in the transition from high school to college.

There are two things these networks will share in common. A commitment to continuous improvement. And a focus on addressing common problems that are identified by using proven indicators predictive of students’ learning, progress, and postsecondary success.

Over the next several years, we will support about 30 of these networks, and will start initially with high needs schools and districts in 6 to 8 states. Each network will be backed by a team of education experts skilled in continuous improvement, coaching, and data collection and analysis.

We are seeing more examples of this popping up all the time. Like the CORE Districts in California – comprised of eight of the largest school districts in the state. And the LIFT Network in Tennessee, which includes educators from 12 rural and urban districts across the state.

We believe this kind of approach – where groups of schools have the flexibility to propose the set of approaches they want – will lead to more impactful and durable systemic change that is attractive enough to be widely adopted by other schools.

This network of schools is using data to identify strategies that educators can use to solve specific problems. From 2007 to 2015, the percentage of students on track to graduate from Chicago high schools rose from 61 to 85 percent. And four-year college enrollment rates in Chicago went from 36 to 44 percent.

Excited by insights like these, school leaders in Chicago partnered with the University of Chicago to create the Network for College Success.

In Chicago, researchers also found powerful insights in their data that are predictive of student progress and success. They determined, for example, that 9th graders who succeed on four key indicators – high attendance, course completion rates, credit accumulation, and grades – are more than four times as likely to graduate. And if their grades are a B+ or higher, they are much more likely to succeed in their first year of college.

So, it identified the teachers whose EL students were doing the best, talked to them and curated their materials, and applied those best practices across all Summit schools. In less than a year, the performance gap between English Learners and others decreased by 25 percent.

Summit Public Schools, which operates 11 charter schools in California and Washington, analyzed data and determined that English Learners entered school significantly behind and never caught up.

In Fresno, a new data system revealed that students weren’t aware of their college options. So, the district created individualized college information packets for every senior who met the state’s college requirements. The result was a 50 percent increase in the number of students applying to California public universities.

Many states, districts, and schools now have the data they need to track student progress and achievement, and some are using it to great effect.

We anticipate that about 60 percent of this will eventually support the development of new curricula and networks of schools that work together to identify local problems and solutions… and use data to drive continuous improvement.

Overall, we expect to invest close to $1.7 billion in U.S. public education over the next five years.

Finally, we will expand investments in innovative research to accelerate progress for underserved students.

There is some great learning coming from charters, but because there is other philanthropic money going to them, we will focus more of our work with charters on developing new tools and strategies for students with special needs.

Fourth, we will continue to support the development of high-quality charter schools.

Third, we are increasing our commitment to develop curricula and professional development aligned to state standards.

Second, we will focus on locally-driven solutions identified by networks of schools, and support their efforts to use data-driven continuous learning and evidence-based interventions to improve student achievement.

First, although we will no longer invest directly in new initiatives based on teacher evaluations and ratings, we will continue to gather data on the impact of these systems and encourage the use of these systems to improve instruction at the local level.

So, what does this mean for our work with you and others?

And last, schools are the unit of change in the effort to increase student achievement and they face common challenges – like inadequate curricular systems and insufficient support for students as they move between middle school, high school and college. And they need better strategies to develop students’ social and emotional skills. But solutions to these problems will only endure if they are aligned with the unique needs of each student and the district’s broader strategy for change.

Schools that track indicators of student progress — like test scores, attendance, suspensions, and grades and credit accumulation – improved high school graduation and college success rates.

Teachers need better curricula and professional development aligned with the Common Core. And we see that they benefit the most from professional development when they are working with colleagues to tackle the real problems confronting their students.

As we have reflected on our work and spoken with educators over the last few years, we have identified a few key insights that will shape our work and investments going forward.

As you know, we also backed the Common Core because we believed, and still believe, that all students – no matter where they go to school – should graduate with the skills and knowledge to succeed after high school. It’s exciting to see how the standards are being brought to life in schools and classrooms. But more needs to be done to fully realize their potential.

In addition, it became clear that teacher evaluation is one important piece of several critical elements to drive student achievement. School leadership, teacher professional development, climate, and curriculum also play critical roles in improving student achievement.

But districts and states have varied in how they have implemented these systems because they each operate in their local context.

This work has helped states across the country build comprehensive evaluation systems based on multiple measures. We’ve seen promising results in places like Cincinnati, Chicago, New York City, and Washington DC, where research shows these systems can help identify teachers who need to improve and those who are underperforming… and in places like Tennessee, where three out of four teachers say the evaluation process improves their teaching.

In 2007, we began investing in the Measures of Effective Teaching project. Over the last decade, it has contributed important knowledge to the field about how to gather feedback from students on their engagement and classroom learning experiences… and about observing teachers at their craft, assessing their performance fairly, and providing actionable feedback.

Understanding this, we saw an opportunity to move our work closer to the classroom – to systemically support schools across the country to improve the quality of teaching and raise academic standards.

Over time, we realized that what made the most successful schools successful – large or small – was their teachers, their relationships with students, and their high expectations of student achievement.

Results in other places – like Los Angeles and the Rio Grande Valley in Texas -were also encouraging. Yet, over time, we saw that the overall impact of this strategy was limited—the financial and political costs of closing existing schools and replacing them with new schools was too high.

In New York City, graduation rates of students attending small schools was more than 30 percentage points higher than the schools they replaced. And almost half of the students attending small schools enrolled in postsecondary education – a more than 20 percent difference from schools with similar demographics.

When we first got involved in U.S. education, we thought smaller schools were the way to increase high school graduation and college-readiness rates. In some places and in some ways, small schools worked.

Melinda and I made public education our top priority in the U.S. because we wanted to do something about the disparity in achievement and postsecondary success for students of color and low-income students. That inequity persists today, and we are just as determined now to eliminate it as we were when we started.

But like many of you, we want to see faster and lasting change in student achievement – and our commitment to that goal is steadfast. In fact, given the constraints and other demands on state and local budgets, it’s more important than ever that we continue to explore the best ideas for improving student achievement.

Fourth-grade reading and math scores in large city schools increased at almost double the rate of public schools nationally. And the 8th grade scores are even better.

There are some signs of progress. Over the past decade, in cities like Charlotte, Austin, and Fresno, high school graduation rates have gone up rapidly.

Without success in college or career preparation programs, students will have limited economic mobility and fewer opportunities throughout their lives. This threatens not only their economic future but the economic future and competitiveness of the United States.

And for all students in U.S. public schools, the percentage of high school graduates who enroll in postsecondary institutions has remained essentially flat.

When disaggregated by race, we see two Americas. One where white students perform along the lines of the best in the world—with achievement comparable to countries like Finland and Korea. And another America, where Black and Latino students perform comparably to the students in the lowest performing OECD countries, such as Chile and Greece.

While much has rightly been made of the OECD data that shows lagging performance of American students overall, the national averages mask a bigger story.

But first, I’d like to say a few words about the state of public education in the U.S. By and large, schools are still falling short on the key metrics of a quality education – math scores, English scores, international comparisons, and college completion.

Today, I’d like to share what we have learned over the last 17 years and how those insights will change what we focus on over the next five years.

And, taking their best ideas, we wanted to pilot potentially transformative solutions and understand what worked well and what didn’t.

We wanted to work with educators to better understand their needs and the needs of their students and communities.

Our #1 priority was – and still is – ensuring that all students get a great public education and graduate with the skills to succeed in the workplace.

When our foundation began working in education in 2000, we started with a few guiding principles.

Based on everything we have learned in the past 17 years, we are evolving our education strategy. I explained what’s changing in a speech today at the Council of the Great City Schools. Here’s the text of my speech:

Melinda and I got involved in U.S. education in 2000. A lot has changed since then, but our goal has not: We still want all children in America to get a great education. It’s key to realizing the vision of America as a country where all people have a chance to make the most of their talents.

Our Education Efforts Are Evolving

Bill Gates, “Our Education Efforts Are Evolving,”gatesnotes, October 19, 2017, https://www.gatesnotes.com/Education/Council-of-Great-City-Schools

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Showing 83 database articles primarily about Test Scores

PISA 2025 Results (Volume I)

AI Summary. International student assessment results show mathematics performance held near earlier levels for about 15 years before falling sharply, with mean scores down 9 points in math and about 14 in reading in the latest cycle. Reported student motivation and school engagement declined, and hasty incorrect answering rose to 11%.

OECD Staff Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Date Posted:
September 8, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Mean OECD math and reading scores fell roughly 25 PISA points—about a year of schooling—between 2018 and 2025, alongside reduced motivation and engagement and increased carelessness, exemplified by a near-doubling of “hasty readers.”

Are international student test scores falling alongside declining motivation and engagement?

Core argument: PISA 2025 mean performance fell by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 points in reading between 2022 and 2025, after mathematics scores had remained close to their 2003 level through 2018.

In math, performance remained close to the 2003 level up to 2018, then dropped sharply btw 2018 and 2025. Mean performance dropped by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 score points in reading btw 2022 and 2025. Over the 2018-2025 period, the largest drops [in reading] were among the most advantaged 25% of socio-economic status, and the socio-economic gap with the most disadvantaged students reduced somewhat, by 11 points, on average across 35 OECD countries. In mathematics, the share of disadvantaged students scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased in previous cycles and remained high in 2025; among advantaged students, the share scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased, reaching 18% in 2025, about 4pp. Students’ reports of their motivation for learning and engagement with school also declined between 2022 and 2025. The proportion of “hasty readers” – those who gave fast and incorrect responses – increased by about five percentage points, on average, from almost 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025. Analyses for math, also show an increase in the proportion of hasty responses between 2022 and 2025.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. PISA 2025 mean performance fell by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 points in reading between 2022 and 2025, after mathematics scores had remained close to their 2003 level through 2018.
  2. Over 2018–2025, the largest reading declines came among the most advantaged 25% by socio-economic status, and the gap with the most disadvantaged students narrowed by 11 points on average across 35 OECD countries.
  3. The share of "hasty readers," who gave fast and incorrect responses, rose about five percentage points, from almost 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025, with hasty responses in mathematics also increasing between 2022 and 2025.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Are China’s Students Really Number One? A Statistical Riddle — China's reported 65-point jump in mean international student test scores between testing rounds coincided with a change in which provinces represented the country, swapping the most populous province for a richer, much smaller one. The author argues such swings, including a fall in low performers from 43% to 19% in reading, are unmatched elsewhere.
  • Have Humans Passed Peak Brain Power? — The share of Americans reporting they read a book in the past year has fallen below half, alongside declining performance in numeracy and problem-solving in most countries. The share of adults unable to use mathematical reasoning to evaluate the validity of statements averages 25% in high-income countries and 35% in the US.
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Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at a Public University System

AI Summary. A study of a large public urban university system finds that high school grade point average is a far stronger predictor of student academic success than SAT scores, contrasting with analyses of highly selective colleges that found the SAT superior. Under-represented minority students were less likely to graduate within six years at every grade point average level.

Theodore Joyce, Mina Afrouzi Khosroshahi, Sarah Truelsch, Kerstin Gentsch, et al. National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 25, 2026
Is Database:
Database
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SAT scores are known to be better predictors of college and post-college success in Ivy+ universities. By contrast, this study of a public urban university system with 11 colleges shows that for the 2010–2019 cohort, high school GPA strongly dominates SAT scores.

Do high school grades predict college success better than test scores?

Core argument: In a study of 2010–2019 cohorts at a large public urban university system, high school GPA predicts student academic success far better than the SAT, contrary to analyses of Ivy-plus colleges that found the SAT superior.

Many of the country’s most selective colleges have returned to requiring the SAT, based on evidence that the test not only predicts student success, but facilitates the identification of qualified applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds. The results from our study of a large public urban university system find the opposite: high school grades are a vastly superior predictor of student academic success than is the SAT. We undertake an exercise with binned scatter plots of six year graduation rates against HSGPA [High School Grade Point Average] stratified by URM [under-represented minority] and whether the student received the maximum Pell grant (Figures 1a and 1b). [Note that SAT is included in the regression so the monotonic linear effect of GDP remains after controlling for SAT score]. We find that URM are less likely to graduate in six years at every level of HSGPA than are non-URM. In contrast, we find no similar difference when we stratify the plot by whether the student received the max Pell grant or not, a strong proxy for a low-income household (Figure 1b). The clear takeaway from the analysis of the 2010-2019 cohorts is the dominance of HSGPA in predicting student academic success. The results are in direct contrast to recent high-profile analyses of students from Ivy-plus colleges that demonstrated the superiority of SAT over HSGPA in predicting not only first-year academic outcomes, but post-college success as well.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. In a study of 2010–2019 cohorts at a large public urban university system, high school GPA predicts student academic success far better than the SAT, contrary to analyses of Ivy-plus colleges that found the SAT superior.
  2. Binned scatter plots of six-year graduation rates against high school GPA, controlling for SAT score, show under-represented minority students are less likely to graduate in six years at every level of high school GPA than non-URM students.
  3. Stratifying six-year graduation rates by receipt of the maximum Pell grant, a proxy for a low-income household, shows no similar gap to the one found between under-represented minority and non-URM students.

Related Articles:

  • Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges — Children from top-1% families are more than 2x as likely as middle-class students with comparable SAT/ACT scores to attend an Ivy-Plus college, with two-thirds of the gap attributable to higher admissions rates. The authors attribute this advantage to legacy preferences, weight on non-academic credentials, and athlete recruitment.
  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — The authors find a steady decline in U.S. Marine Corps officers' General Classification Test scores, which is statistically associated with the expansion of college attendance and explains 96% of the measured change. They also find a positive association between African American officers and mean test scores, arguing affirmative action has not lowered officer quality.
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
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The Lost Generation

AI Summary. White men's share of positions across US culture and technology industries declined markedly over roughly a decade: from 48% to 11.9% of lower-level TV writers, 39% to 18% of Harvard humanities tenure-track posts, nearly half to under a third of Google's workforce, and 55.8% to 33.8% of mid-level Amazon managers.

Jacob Savage Compact Magazine
Date Posted:
December 17, 2025
Is Database:
Database
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Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and tech during the 2010s is a key driver of contemporary political dynamics among young men.

Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and...

How much has white men's share of culture and tech jobs fallen?

Core argument: White men fell from 48% of lower-level TV writers in 2011 to 11.9% in 2024, and from 39% of Harvard humanities tenure-track positions in 2014 to 18% in 2023.

In 2011, the year I moved to Los Angeles, white men were 48% of lower-level TV writers; by 2024, they accounted for just 11.9%. The Atlantic’s editorial staff went from 53% male and 89% white in 2013 to 36% male and 66% white in 2024. White men fell from 39% of tenure-track positions in the humanities at Harvard in 2014 to 18% in 2023. The white men shut out of the culture industries didn’t surge into other high-status fields. At Google, white men went from nearly half the workforce in 2014 to less than a third by 2024—a 34% decline. In 2014, at Amazon, entry-level “professionals”—college graduates just starting out—were 42.3% white male. These were the employees who, if they’d advanced normally over the next decade, would be the mid-level managers of today. But mid-level Amazon managers fell from 55.8% white male in 2014 to just 33.8% in 2024—a decline of nearly 40%. In retrospect, 2014 was the hinge, the year DEI became institutionalized across American life.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. White men fell from 48% of lower-level TV writers in 2011 to 11.9% in 2024, and from 39% of Harvard humanities tenure-track positions in 2014 to 18% in 2023.
  2. Mid-level Amazon managers went from 55.8% white male in 2014 to 33.8% in 2024, a decline of nearly 40%, while entry-level Amazon professionals were 42.3% white male in 2014.
  3. At Google, white men fell from nearly half the workforce in 2014 to under a third by 2024, a 34% decline, part of the author's case that 2014 was the hinge year when DEI became institutionalized.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — The authors find a steady decline in U.S. Marine Corps officers' General Classification Test scores, which is statistically associated with the expansion of college attendance and explains 96% of the measured change. They also find a positive association between African American officers and mean test scores, arguing affirmative action has not lowered officer quality.
  • US PISA Results By Subpopulation — On the international PISA student assessments, American Asian and White students ranked at the top, American Hispanic students outscored Hispanic students elsewhere, and American Black students performed well. In reading, American Asian students placed first and American White students third.
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Twelfth-Grade Math and Reading Scores in U.S. Hit New Low

AI Summary. U.S. twelfth-graders' average math and reading scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress fell to their lowest levels on record, with math the worst since that test began in 2005 and reading below any point since 1992. The share rated proficient slid 2 percentage points to 35% in reading and 22% in math.

Matt Barnum Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
September 9, 2025
Is Database:
Database
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New National Assessment of Educational Progress results show the share of American high school seniors who scored basic or above on national tests fell to the lowest level on record: 68% in reading and 55% in math.

Have U.S. twelfth-grade math and reading scores fallen to record lows?

Core argument: U.S. twelfth-graders' average math score was the worst since the current National Assessment of Educational Progress math test began in 2005, and their reading score fell below any point since that assessment started in 1992.

American high-school seniors’ scores on major math and reading tests fell to their lowest levels on record, according to results released Tuesday by the U.S. Education Department. Twelfth-graders’ average math score was the worst since the current test began in 2005, and reading was below any point since that assessment started in 1992. The share of 12th-graders who were proficient slid by 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024—to 35% in reading and 22% in math. The results are from tests that are part of the National Assessment of Educational Progress, administered to tens of thousands of students in early 2024. In reading, two-thirds of seniors could determine the purpose of a persuasive essay, but only one in five was able to draw a conclusion from such an essay, supported by the text. In math, 60% of students deduced the population of an area using information on size and density, while just under half correctly turned a real-world scenario into an algebraic expression.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. twelfth-graders' average math score was the worst since the current National Assessment of Educational Progress math test began in 2005, and their reading score fell below any point since that assessment started in 1992.
  2. The share of U.S. 12th-graders scoring proficient fell 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024, to 35% in reading and 22% in math, according to results released by the U.S. Education Department.
  3. In reading, two-thirds of seniors could determine the purpose of a persuasive essay but only one in five could draw a text-supported conclusion from it, while in math just under half converted a real-world scenario into an algebraic expression.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Many Children Left Behind: The 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress Results Indicate a Five-Alarm Fire — The share of US fourth-grade students meeting the National Assessment of Educational Progress reading proficiency standard fell from 35% in 2019 to 33% in 2022 and 30% in 2024. More fourth-graders now score below the basic level than score proficient.
  • Have Humans Passed Peak Brain Power? — The share of Americans reporting they read a book in the past year has fallen below half, alongside declining performance in numeracy and problem-solving in most countries. The share of adults unable to use mathematical reasoning to evaluate the validity of statements averages 25% in high-income countries and 35% in the US.
  • Test Scores
  • Workforce
    • Education
      • K-12

Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges

AI Summary. An analysis of admissions and transcript records at Ivy-Plus colleges finds standardized test scores predict first-year college grades with a normalized slope 4x greater than high school grade point average, controlling for race, gender, and socioeconomic status. The authors find no evidence test scores underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds.

John Friedman, Bruce Sacerdote, Douglas Staiger, and Michele Tine National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 18, 2025
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Students at Ivy-plus colleges whose SAT/ACT scores were at the 99th percentile had 1st-year college GPAs 0.43 points higher than those who had scored at the 75th percentile, while high school GPAs had little predictive power. @John_N_Friedman

Do standardized test scores predict college grades better than high school GPA?

Core argument: Analyzing admissions and transcript records at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges, the authors find SAT/ACT scores predict first-year college grades with a normalized slope four times greater than high school GPA, conditional on race, gender, and socioeconomic status.

We analyze admissions and transcript records for students at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges to study the relationship between standardized (SAT/ACT) test scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades. Standardized test scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope four times greater than that from high school GPA, all conditional on students’ race, gender, and socioeconomic status. Standardized test scores do not underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds. Collectively these results suggest that standardized test scores provide important information to measure applicants’ academic preparation that is not available elsewhere in the application file. While some of the raw correlation between these variables relates to students’ demographic characteristics, much remains even when controlling for these variables. In contrast, high school GPA does not predict academic performance nearly as well. We also find no evidence of bias against students from less advantaged backgrounds, as students from such backgrounds do not outperform (and in some cases underperform) other students with the same test score

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Analyzing admissions and transcript records at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges, the authors find SAT/ACT scores predict first-year college grades with a normalized slope four times greater than high school GPA, conditional on race, gender, and socioeconomic status.
  2. Standardized test scores do not underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds, who do not outperform and in some cases underperform other students with the same test score.
  3. Much of the correlation between test scores and academic performance remains after controlling for demographic characteristics, which the authors suggest indicates test scores provide information on applicants' academic preparation not available elsewhere in the application file.

Related Articles:

  • Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges — Children from top-1% families are more than 2x as likely as middle-class students with comparable SAT/ACT scores to attend an Ivy-Plus college, with two-thirds of the gap attributable to higher admissions rates. The authors attribute this advantage to legacy preferences, weight on non-academic credentials, and athlete recruitment.
  • Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges — Using admissions records and first-year grades at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges, the authors find SAT and ACT scores substantially predict college academic success even among students with the same high school grades, while high school grade point average does little to predict it. Conditional on test scores, students from lower- and higher-resourced high schools have virtually identical college grades.
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Test Scores
  • Workforce
    • Education

Can Gifted Education Help Higher-Ability Boys from Disadvantaged Backgrounds?

AI Summary. A regression discontinuity study of a large urban school district, where disadvantaged students qualify for gifted status at a lower IQ threshold, estimates that being identified as gifted raises the college entry rate of marginally eligible boys by 28 percentage points, from 46% to 74%. That matches the 74% rate of marginally ineligible girls, closing the gender gap.

David Card, Eric Chyn, and Laura Giuliano National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
February 21, 2025
Is Database:
Database

Card et al, find that the 25-30 percentage point college enrollment gap between disadvantaged boys and girls with IQs of ~116 closed among students who qualified for a “gifted” program. @EricChyn

Does gifted identification raise college entry for disadvantaged boys?

Core argument: Gifted identification raises the estimated college entry rate of marginally eligible disadvantaged boys by 28 percentage points, from 46% for those narrowly missing the threshold to 74%, in a large urban school district.

We study the effects of being identified as gifted in elementary school on subsequent test scores, courses and grades, and on the probability of entering college, for disadvantaged children in a large urban school district (“the District”). The law specifies a threshold of 130 [IQ] points for non-disadvantaged students, but allows districts to select a lower “Plan B” threshold [116 pts] for FRL and ELL students. The strict IQ threshold for gifted status provides the basis for a regression discontinuity (RD) evaluation of the impacts of being identified as gifted. Figure 6 illustrates how these impacts affect gender gaps by presenting the estimated mean potential outcomes for the complying boys (left side) and complying girls (right side) using an 8-point bandwidth. The estimated college entry rate for male compliers who narrowly miss the gifted threshold is 46%; the 28 ppt treatment effect of passing the threshold raises this to 74%, which equals the rate for female compliers who narrowly miss the threshold - being identified as gifted raises the college entry rate of marginally eligible boys to the same rate as girls.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Gifted identification raises the estimated college entry rate of marginally eligible disadvantaged boys by 28 percentage points, from 46% for those narrowly missing the threshold to 74%, in a large urban school district.
  2. The estimated 74% college entry rate for marginally eligible boys identified as gifted equals the rate for female compliers who narrowly miss the threshold.
  3. The study uses a regression discontinuity design around the IQ threshold for gifted status, 130 points for non-disadvantaged students and a "Plan B" threshold of 116 points for free-lunch and English-learner students.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
  • Skills and Human Capital in the Labor Market — Labor market earnings are strongly associated with measures of personality traits and preferences, and over the last two decades returns to cognitive skills have been flat or declined in the US, Sweden, and Finland while returns to "soft" skills such as conscientiousness, extraversion, emotional stability, and social skills have grown rapidly.
  • Multidimensional Human Capital and the Wage Structure — The wage return to cognitive skills has declined, from about 10% higher hourly wages per standard deviation of test score in the 1980s and early 1990s to 4.5% in the 2000s and early 2010s, while returns to a bachelor's degree rose. Social skill-intensive occupations grew as a share of US jobs, with faster real wage growth.
  • Test Scores
  • Workforce
    • Education
      • K-12
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