Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. An analysis of residential air-conditioning in OECD countries finds that per capita income explains little of the variation, while being European is associated with roughly 50 percentage points lower air-conditioning availability. At US income levels, a country following European patterns would have air-conditioning in fewer than half its homes.

Nicholas Eberstadt American Enterprise Institute
Date Posted:

French and German AC availability is at 1965 and 1963 American levels, respectively. Eberstadt argues the “striking lack of AC nowadays in affluent modern Europe looks very much like some sort of stubborn choice.”

Does income or being European explain home air-conditioning differences?

Core argument: In a chart predicting OECD residential air-conditioning availability from per capita income and European status, being European is associated with a drop of almost 50 percentage points, all else equal.

The chart “predicts” residential AC penetration in OECD today using just two factors: per capita income, and whether or not a country is European. Per capita income turns out to make little difference (no surprise: our analysis leaves out all of the poor world.) But the Europe thing matters, big time. All else equal, an OECD country’s residential AC availability drops by almost 50 percentage points if it happens to be European. Put another way: by the patterns in the chart, a country with America’s present income level would have air-conditioning in fewer than half its homes today if it were on a “European” schedule. With “European” norms, indeed, a country as rich as the US today would have the same limited AC coverage the US reported over half a century ago.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. In a chart predicting OECD residential air-conditioning availability from per capita income and European status, being European is associated with a drop of almost 50 percentage points, all else equal.
  2. Per capita income makes little difference to residential air-conditioning penetration in the chart, which covers only OECD countries and leaves out the poor world.
  3. By the chart's patterns, a country with America's present income level on a "European" schedule would have air conditioning in fewer than half its homes, matching the limited coverage the United States reported over half a century ago.

Related Articles:

  • Britain and Europe Need to Get Serious About Air Conditioning — European cities face more intense, frequent, and longer heat, with hot nights rising fastest, yet air conditioning remains far less common than in the US: London is seeing as many days requiring cooling as Portland, Oregon, where 79% of households have air conditioning. Extreme heat killed an average 83,000 western Europeans annually versus 20,000 North Americans.
  • Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026 — Estimates based on primary energy overstate how much electricity is needed to replace oil in passenger cars, since electric motors convert 80%-90% of electricity into motion versus about 18% for gasoline cars. Measuring useful final energy net of waste heat avoids this "primary energy fallacy": the US consumed 45 exajoules of useful final energy versus 95 exajoules of primary energy.
  • The Future of Cooling — Over half of the world's 1.6bn air conditioners are in just two countries, China with 570m units and the United States with 375m, and nearly 70% of all units globally are in residential buildings. Household ownership ranges from about 4% in India and under 10% in Europe to over 90% in the United States and Japan.
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