Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Petroleum supplies 90% of US transport energy consumption and about 33% of industrial production, mainly high-temperature heat and feedstocks, with passenger cars, SUVs and light trucks accounting for roughly 60% of transport energy use. The oil intensity of GDP is gradually declining in most of the world, though the US retains the highest oil intensity among major economies.

Michael Cembalest J.P. Morgan
Date Posted:
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Database

The oil intensity of US GDP declined 52% btw 1990 and 2024, but remains almost twice that of Germany and France. As of 2023, 90% of energy consumption for American transport and 33% for industrial production was petroleum-based.

How reliant is the US economy on petroleum?

Core argument: Petroleum supplies 90% of US transport energy consumption and about 33% of industrial production, mostly high-temperature heat and industrial feedstocks, while accounting for less than 10% of residential and commercial heating totals.

The US is still highly reliant on petroleum for 90% of transport energy consumption with the remainder mostly made up of natural gas and biomass, and for ~33% of industrial production (mostly high temperature heat and industrial feedstocks). The amounts of oil used for residential and commercial heating is pretty negligible, less than 10% of the respective totals. Note: passenger cars, SUVs and light trucks represent around ~60% of transport energy consumption, with the remainder mostly split between heavy class 8 trucks, air travel and maritime. The oil intensity of GDP is gradually declining in most of the world. At some point, this ratio may drop low enough that disruptions in oil supplies will be less of an issue for growth and consumer spending. I just have no idea what that level would be. Also: the US still has the highest oil intensity of GDP of countries in the chart. The September 2025 expiration of US EV subsidies makes it unlikely that the US will converge further to the rest of the group; Ford throwing in the towel on the F150 Lightning is another sign of the times in the US regarding electrification of transport.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Petroleum supplies 90% of US transport energy consumption and about 33% of industrial production, mostly high-temperature heat and industrial feedstocks, while accounting for less than 10% of residential and commercial heating totals.
  2. Passenger cars, SUVs and light trucks account for roughly 60% of US transport energy consumption, with the remainder split mostly between heavy class 8 trucks, air travel and maritime.
  3. The US has the highest oil intensity of GDP among the countries charted, and the September 2025 expiration of US EV subsidies makes further convergence toward the rest of the group unlikely.

Related Articles:

  • Power Politics: Energy Self-Sufficiency in a Modern Mercantilist World — China leads in adding power to the grid, with more than 30,000 miles of ultra-high-voltage transmission lines versus zero in the US and lead times for large transformers of 48 weeks against a US average of 143 weeks. This positions China to accommodate new demand sources such as artificial intelligence.
  • Heliocentrism — An energy use must be electrified before green grid electricity can decarbonize it, and while US grid decarbonization continues at a steady pace, the electricity share of final US energy consumption has grown little. Transmission line growth runs well below Department of Energy targets for 2030 and 2035, and transformer delivery times have stretched from 4–6 weeks to 2–3 years.
  • Economic Growth Now Depends on Electricity, Not Oil — Average annual electricity load growth reached 3% and is projected to continue at that rate for five years, with utilities raising expected peak demand for 2029 by 12%, or 101 gigawatts, driven by data centers, new factories, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and hydrogen production.
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