“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
“A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal

For whatever topics you select (currently: Wages/Income):

Include articles that mention this topic 531

Only articles primarily about this topic 133

The Wage Compression That Persisted

Arin Dube Arin's Substack

Date Posted:: January 15, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Dube reports that despite slowing real wage growth at the low end in 2025, the reduced inequality between the 10th percentile and the 50th and 90th percentiles due to wage gains “at the bottom” during the tight labor market of 2021–2022 largely remains.

The figure [shows] the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of hourly wages over time, each expressed relative to 2019. The real break comes after 2020: wages at the bottom rose substantially more than at the middle and the top. By 2024 and into 2025, the 10th percentile has pulled distinctly ahead of the median and the 90th percentile in cumulative growth since 2019 - [not only are] wages higher, but the lower tail has moved up more than the middle. The key question is whether the relative gains at the bottom that occurred in 2021/22 were given back. In the cross-sectional distribution, they largely weren’t. The bottom wage that rose sharply in 2021–2023 remains elevated relative to the middle and top through 2025. The sharp reduction in 50–10 and 90-10 inequality—driven by big increases at the bottom—has largely persisted. The second figure [1st in the gallery] adjusts wages for changes in demographic composition—age, education, and gender—so the percentiles better reflect shifts in the wage structure rather than shifts in the mix of workers. The adjustment doesn’t weaken the compression story; it strengthens it. At the same time, real wage growth during 2025 at the bottom seems to have slowed down, whether adjusted for composition or not. This kind of broad-based, compressive wage growth is unusual in recent U.S. history—rare from 1980 to 2016, aside from a late‑1990s burst.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

U.S. hourly wages at the 10th percentile have risen more since 2019 than at the 50th and 90th percentiles, and by 2024–2025 the bottom remains distinctly ahead in cumulative growth.
The sharp reduction in 50–10 and 90–10 wage inequality driven by large gains at the bottom in 2021–2023 has largely persisted through 2025 rather than being given back.
Adjusting wages for age, education, and gender composition strengthens rather than weakens the compression pattern, though real wage growth at the bottom appears to have slowed during 2025 on both adjusted and unadjusted measures.

Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2022 to 2025: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances

Aditya Aladangady, Jesse Bricker, Andrew Chang, Sarena Goodman, et al. Federal Reserve Board

Date Posted:: October 15, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Real median pre-tax, post-transfer family income rose 7% to $82,000 btw 2021 and 2024 and real mean family income fell 6% to $145,200 over the period. Since 2018 median income has risen 11% and mean income has risen 8%.

Real median family income, which is measured for the year before the survey, rose 7% between the 2022 to 2025 surveys, while real mean family income fell 6%. Families in the lower ends of the income and net worth distributions saw modest increases in median and mean income, while families in the upper ends saw declines. These patterns indicate that income inequality decreased slightly between surveys. Median income generally exhibited broad-based gains across families with different characteristics, while changes in mean income showed less of a consistent pattern. For example, while all age groups saw growth in median income, with particularly strong growth among the oldest families, mean income remained about unchanged for some age groups while sharply declining for others.

What Six Years of Inflation Mean for the Midterms

Owen Tucker-Smith Wall Street Journal

Date Posted:: October 8, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Inflation outpaced real year-over-year average hourly earnings growth in the 5 months through August.

Overall prices, as measured by the consumer-price index, have risen almost 29% in the past six years. During the six years before that, prices crept up at a third of that pace. Over the past six years, prices have, on average, risen faster than wages. The trend has been pronounced recently: In both July and August, inflation outpaced average hourly wage growth.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

U.S. consumer prices, as measured by the consumer-price index, have risen almost 29% over the past six years, about three times the pace of the preceding six years.
Prices have on average risen faster than wages over the past six years, with inflation outpacing average hourly wage growth in both July and August.

Not Tech, Not Wall Street

Torsten Sløk Apollo

Date Posted:: September 21, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

More than half the increase in the top 1% income share since 1985 flowed through pass-through businesses to ~ 3mm private business owners with a mean net worth of ~$25mm.

The income that lifted America's top 1% did not come mainly from tech or Wall Street, according to Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick. More than half of the rise in the top 1% income share since 1985, 5.8 of 10.5 percentage points, flowed through pass-through businesses. Zidar and Zwick, counted roughly 3 million wealthy private business owners, with average net worth near $25 million, running law firms, car dealerships, medical practices, commercial contractors and regional restaurant chains, the kind of businesses that make their owners wealthy and well known in their own communities without ever making them nationally famous.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick find that 5.8 of the 10.5 percentage-point rise in the U.S. top 1% income share since 1985 flowed through pass-through businesses, more than half of the increase.
Zidar and Zwick count roughly 3 million wealthy private business owners with average net worth near $25 million, running law firms, car dealerships, medical practices, commercial contractors and regional restaurant chains.
The income that lifted America’s top 1% did not come mainly from tech or Wall Street, according to Zidar and Zwick, but from businesses whose owners are well known locally without becoming nationally famous.

Family Income Continues to Grow in 2025 Data

Jeremy Horpedahl Economist Writing Every Day

Date Posted:: September 17, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

In 1967, just 5.5% of American families had an inflation adjusted income of $150,000 or more. In 2025, 35.7% did. During that timeframe, the share of families with a real income less than $75,000 declined from 63.4% to 32.8%.

In 1967 there were fewer than 3 million families with incomes over $150,000 (in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars). By 2025, that had grown to over 31 million families. If we look at the highest income threshold in this Census data — over $200,000 — the number of families has grown from just 1 million in 1967 to over 20 million in 2025. And there are fewer lower-income families too: the number of families under $75,000 shrunk, not just as a proportion of the total but even in absolute terms by almost 3 million families from 1967 to 2025. Of course, some of these families do have more earners than in 1967, though we shouldn’t overstate that too much. Using other data from Census, we can see that the share of families with multiple earners hasn’t increased much since 1967, and especially hasn’t since the mid-1990s.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The number of U.S. families with incomes above $150,000 in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars rose from fewer than 3 million in 1967 to over 31 million in 2025, according to Census data.
Families earning over $200,000, the highest income threshold in the Census data, grew from about 1 million in 1967 to over 20 million in 2025.
Families with incomes under $75,000 declined by almost 3 million in absolute terms from 1967 to 2025, while Census data show the share of families with multiple earners has not increased much since 1967, and especially not since the mid-1990s.

Income in the United States: 2025

Melissa Kollar and Zach Scherer U.S. Census Bureau

Date Posted:: September 16, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

Real US median household income increased 2.6% year over year in 2025 to a record high of $87,460.

In 2025, median household income was $87,460, an increase of 2.6% from the 2024 estimate of $85,210. Household income in 2025 was the highest on record dating back to 1967. For all demographic characteristics of the householder the median household income estimates in 2025 were either higher than the 2024 estimates or were not statistically different from 2024. Median household income increased by 3% for White households, 2.9% for non-Hispanic White households, and 4.8% for Black households. Median income did not change significantly for Asian or Hispanic households.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Median U.S. household income reached $87,460 in 2025, up 2.6% from $85,210 in 2024 and the highest on record in data dating back to 1967.
Median household income rose 4.8% for Black households, 3% for White households, and 2.9% for non-Hispanic White households in 2025, while Asian and Hispanic households saw no statistically significant change.
Across all demographic characteristics of the householder, 2025 median household income estimates were either higher than or not statistically different from 2024 estimates.

Sticky Wage Norms and the Real Wage Cost of Unexpected Inflation

Erik Hurst, Christina Patterson, Nela Richardson, and Ye Liv Wang University of Chicago

Date Posted:: September 10, 2026
Is Database:: Database

ADP microdata from 2016–25 suggest firms set wages according to “wage norms” ~ invariant to inflation. The 2020–21 inflation surge mechanically reduced real wages. By the end of 2025, 34% of incumbent workers’ real wages were lower than in 2020.

Roughly 42% of all nominal wage increases below 6% were within 0.01 percentage points of a whole or half number [Figure 6]. Figure 9 plots the employment-weighted average modal wage change across firms (solid line) alongside inflation rate (dashed line) from 2016 through 2025. In the pre-pandemic period, firm-level wage rules were relatively stable at a median of 2.7%, modestly above the rate of inflation. Beginning in 2021, inflation rose sharply, peaking at approximately seven percent in 2022. The average modal wage change also rose, reaching a peak of 3.5% in 2022 and 2023. By 2025, the median firm had a wage rule granting increases of three percent, roughly in line with inflation. The stickiness of firms’ wage rules in the face of inflationary pressure contributed to the systematic fall in real wages for job stayers. Evidence from Belgium [which has strong wage indexation], suggests that declining real wages, rather than inflation itself, helps explain the persistence of depressed consumer sentiment during the 2021–2024 period.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Roughly 42% of all nominal wage increases below 6% fell within 0.01 percentage points of a whole or half number.
Firm-level wage rules held near a median of 2.7% before the pandemic, and the employment-weighted average modal wage change peaked at 3.5% in 2022 and 2023 while inflation peaked near 7% in 2022; by 2025 the median firm granted 3%.
The stickiness of firms' wage rules amid inflationary pressure contributed to a systematic fall in real wages for job stayers, and evidence from Belgium, which has strong wage indexation, suggests falling real wages rather than inflation helps explain depressed consumer sentiment in 2021–2024.

Dube reports that despite slowing real wage growth at the low end in 2025, the reduced inequality between the 10th percentile and the 50th and 90th percentiles due to wage gains “at the bottom” during the tight labor market of 2021–2022 largely remains.

Have wage gains at the bottom held up relative to the top?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Real median pre-tax, post-transfer family income rose 7% to $82,000 btw 2021 and 2024 and real mean family income fell 6% to $145,200 over the period. Since 2018 median income has risen 11% and mean income has risen 8%.

Related Articles:

Inflation outpaced real year-over-year average hourly earnings growth in the 5 months through August.

Have prices risen faster than wages over the past six years?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

More than half the increase in the top 1% income share since 1985 flowed through pass-through businesses to ~ 3mm private business owners with a mean net worth of ~$25mm.

Did most of the top 1% income gain come from private businesses?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

In 1967, just 5.5% of American families had an inflation adjusted income of $150,000 or more. In 2025, 35.7% did. During that timeframe, the share of families with a real income less than $75,000 declined from 63.4% to 32.8%.

Are more American families reaching higher inflation-adjusted income levels?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Real US median household income increased 2.6% year over year in 2025 to a record high of $87,460.

Has median U.S. household income reached its highest level on record?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

ADP microdata from 2016–25 suggest firms set wages according to “wage norms” ~ invariant to inflation. The 2020–21 inflation surge mechanically reduced real wages. By the end of 2025, 34% of incumbent workers’ real wages were lower than in 2020.

Do round-number wage rules cause real wages to fall during inflation?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI