Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. US blue-collar employment shrank by more than 145k over the past year, with warehouse jobs down over 50k and construction job growth flat, while tech employment fell more than 19k. Unemployment rose 2.9 percentage points for teenagers and 1.6 points for young college graduates, versus 0.2 points for workers over 25.

Joseph Politano Apricitas Economics
Date Posted:

Job growth slowed to a mean of 44k a month in 2025, with blue-collar and young workers most impacted. Unemployment rose .7pp for those <25 and 1.6pp for new college grads alongside, “the largest gap in wage growth favoring high earners since the early 2010s.”

Who is bearing the brunt of weak hiring across sectors?

Core argument: Blue-collar employment shrank by more than 145k over the past year, with construction job growth functionally zeroed out and warehouses cutting over 50k jobs, leaving that sector 150k below its early-2022 peak.

The contraction in blue-collar jobs continues to intensify, with employment levels shrinking by more than 145k over the last year. Job growth in construction has functionally zeroed out, while manufacturing and logistics are each losing tens of thousands of jobs. Warehouses shrunk their workforce by > 50k over the last year, putting the sector 150k jobs below its early-2022 peak. The tech sector labor market remains extremely weak, with employment shrinking by more than 19k over the last year and down roughly 100k since late 2023, Over the last year, the unemployment rate for teenagers is up by 2.9pp, the unemployment rate for people in their early 20s is up by 0.7pp, but the unemployment rate for those above 25 is up by only 0.2pp. Unemployment for young college-educated workers is up by a full 1.6pp over the last year; unemployment for new labor market entrants and labor market reentrants are both near their highest levels since 2016. The distribution of wage growth has also radically changed amidst the “no-hire” economy. From 2021-2022, wage growth for the lowest-paid workers accelerated to the fastest pace in a generation. Wage growth for these lowest-paid workers has ground to a halt over the last two years, and they are now seeing much lower raises than their higher paid counterparts. This is now the largest gap in wage growth favoring high earners since the early 2010s.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Blue-collar employment shrank by more than 145k over the past year, with construction job growth functionally zeroed out and warehouses cutting over 50k jobs, leaving that sector 150k below its early-2022 peak.
  2. Teenage unemployment rose 2.9pp over the past year and unemployment for young college-educated workers rose 1.6pp, versus 0.2pp for workers above 25, with new entrants and reentrants near their highest levels since 2016.
  3. Wage growth for the lowest-paid workers, which accelerated to its fastest pace in a generation in 2021–2022, has ground to a halt over the last two years, producing the largest gap favoring high earners since the early 2010s.

Related Articles:

  • U.S. Wages Still Rising Briskly, Employment Holding Up, and Inflation Still Sticky (Probably) — The U.S. job market looks no less healthy than a few months earlier: the rise in unemployment to 4.56% has coincided with more people actively looking for work, while the share of Americans aged 25-54 with a job held near 80.6%. Wages rising about 4% a year can explain inflation running about 1 percentage point above pre-pandemic rates.
  • Our Favorite Charts of 2025 — Wage growth is slowing more for lower-paid workers than for higher earners, limiting those households' ability to keep spending, while hiring is concentrated in select industries such as healthcare and among larger firms as small private firms shed workers. Layoffs remain low, but the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more has only rarely been higher.
  • Jobless Growth — Labor demand growth may be too weak to keep pace with even modest labor supply growth: the labor market is somewhat weaker than before the pandemic, job growth has turned negative outside healthcare, and firms are focused on using AI to cut labor costs. Economists estimate most employment losses in routine manual occupations since the 1970s occurred during recessions.
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