Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. An analysis finds that voters and mainstream politicians have long been broadly aligned on economic issues such as tax and spending, but diverge widely on sociocultural issues like immigration and criminal justice, with publics favoring more order and cultural integration while politicians lean toward more inclusive, permissive approaches.

John Burn-Murdoch Financial Times
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

John Burn-Murdoch argues Guenther’s “representation gap” theory is “visible in the US,” where the mean voter’s preferences on immigration are “far more conservative than those of Democratic party elites,” and closer to those of Republican politicians.

Do voters and mainstream politicians diverge on culture but not economics?

Core argument: Guenther's analysis finds voters and mainstream politicians broadly aligned on economic issues such as tax and spend or public ownership, but divided by a yawning gulf on sociocultural issues like immigration and criminal justice.

Guenther’s analysis shows that voters and mainstream politicians have long been broadly aligned on economic issues like tax and spend or public ownership. But on sociocultural issues such as immigration and criminal justice there is a yawning gulf. Western publics have long desired greater emphasis on order, control and cultural integration. Their politicians have tilted in the opposite direction, favouring more inclusive and permissive approaches. Extending Guenther’s European analysis to include more recent data and a wider set of countries, I find the thesis aligns well with several recent developments. First, the same pattern is visible in the US, where the average voter’s preferences on immigration are close to those of Republican politicians, but far more conservative than those of Democratic party elites.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Guenther's analysis finds voters and mainstream politicians broadly aligned on economic issues such as tax and spend or public ownership, but divided by a yawning gulf on sociocultural issues like immigration and criminal justice.
  2. Western publics have long desired greater emphasis on order, control and cultural integration, while their politicians have tilted toward more inclusive and permissive approaches, according to Guenther's analysis.
  3. Extending Guenther's European analysis to more recent data and a wider set of countries, the author finds the same pattern in the US, where the average voter's immigration preferences sit close to Republican politicians' and far more conservative than Democratic party elites'.

Related Articles:

  • Political Representation Gaps and Populism — A study comparing survey responses of citizens and parliamentarians across 27 European countries finds that policymaking reflects voters' economic attitudes well, but the average parliamentarian is about one standard deviation more culturally liberal than the national mean voter. The author finds this cultural gap spans nearly all issues, countries, and established parties, and that right-wing populists fill it.
  • America’s Immigration Mess: An Illustrated Guide — Current Population Survey estimates indicate America's foreign-born population surpassed 50m for the first time and exceeded 15% of the national population, above the prior peak of 14.8% recorded in 1890. Mass immigration during that earlier wave was associated in contemporary opinion with widening income and wealth gaps and depressed wages for less-skilled native-born men, and sweeping national restrictions followed.
  • Changing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Trajectory — Sub-Saharan Africa's working-age population is growing nearly 3% a year, versus close to zero in much of the world, and is projected to exceed China's within about a decade and reach a quarter of the global total. With modest productivity growth near 2%, the region is likely among the world's fastest-growing.
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