Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Since 1982, real growth in the median U.S. wage has trailed growth at both the top and bottom of the wage distribution, with higher and lower percentiles outperforming the middle.

Cardiff Garcia and Ben Glasner Agglomerations
Date Posted:

Garcia and Glasner document the striking observation that inequality across the wage distribution rose mainly during the long overall wage stagnations of 1982–1996 and 2001–2014. Wage growth was both faster and more broadly shared in 1996–2001 and 2014–2020.

Has median wage growth lagged both the top and bottom?

Core argument: Real growth of the median U.S. wage has trailed growth at both the higher and lower ends of the wage distribution since 1982.

Figure 4 zooms into the First Long Wage Stagnation from December 1982 to 1996: negative growth for the 10th percentile wage and hardly any growth for the three middle wage categories. Meanwhile the 90th percentile wage climbed away from all the others despite itself growing by less than 1% a year. Figure 5 shows the more recent Second Long Wage Stagnation. The median wage averaged just 0.36% growth per year. And because the growth of the 75th and 90th percentile firmly outpaced the growth of the others, wage inequality climbed sharply. From 2015 through the start of 2020, wages climbed all across the distribution, [while] the widening between the 90th percentile wage and the other wages slowed. The escape from wage stagnation once again arrived as the labor market continued tightening. In the late 1990s boom, the median wage climbed an annualized 2.6%. The eras in which the median wage climbed at the steepest angle were those in which all the other wages climbed with it. [Finally], real growth of the median wage has trailed behind the growth of the other wage categories since 1982.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Real growth of the median U.S. wage has trailed growth at both the higher and lower ends of the wage distribution since 1982.
  2. Figure 10 presents three wage ratios: the 90th percentile to the median, the 90th percentile to the 10th, and the median to the 10th.

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  • The Pig In The Python: US Decennial Labor Flows And Economic Opportunity, 1910–2040 — The surge of baby boomers, women, and immigrants entering the US labor force between 1960 and 1980 was difficult for the economy to absorb, and young workers' wages fell sharply after peaking in the early 1970s. The author argues those entrants kept occupying jobs and suppressing demand for new workers until retirement.
  • The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market — Labor market tightness produced an unexpected compression in the US wage distribution, with disproportionate wage growth at the bottom reducing the college wage premium and reversing nearly 40% of the rise in 90-10 wage inequality since 1980. The authors attribute this in part to increased competition for low-wage workers.
Showing 132 database articles primarily about Wages/Income