Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. US annual inflation of 3.8% outpaced average hourly earnings growth of 3.6%, leaving prices rising faster than pay for the first time in two years, while Eurozone workers face a fresh energy-driven setback. JPMorgan attributes the real wage decline to Middle East conflict and expects growth to resume if energy prices retreat.

Delphine Strauss and Claire Jones Financial Times
Date Posted:

Real wage growth in the US and Eurozone which have been slightly positive since 2024, downticked due to the rise in inflation. JPM’s Mike Feroli argues if the Strait of Hormuz reopens “I would expect real wages to start growing again.”

Are real wages shrinking as inflation outpaces pay in developed countries?

Core argument: US inflation rose to an annual 3.8% in April while average hourly earnings gained 3.6% over the year, leaving prices rising faster than earnings for the first time in two years.

US inflation jumped to an annual 3.8% in April, while average hourly earnings increased 3.6% over the year, meaning prices were rising faster than earnings for the first time in two years. In the Eurozone, the energy shock represents a fresh setback for workers who had only just clawed back the ground lost in the 2022 inflationary shock. Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan, said the real wage shrinkage was “all about the Middle East conflict” so if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and energy prices retreat, “I would expect real wages to start growing again.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. US inflation rose to an annual 3.8% in April while average hourly earnings gained 3.6% over the year, leaving prices rising faster than earnings for the first time in two years.
  2. In the Eurozone, the energy shock is a fresh setback for workers who had only just recovered the ground lost in the 2022 inflationary shock.
  3. JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli attributed the real wage shrinkage to the Middle East conflict and said he would expect real wages to grow again if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and energy prices retreat.

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