Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
Upside of Inequality Unintended Consequences Oxford
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Edward Conard

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John Cochrane

Unintended Consequences accurately predicted the slow recovery

John Cochrane questions the accuracy of Keynesian economics by showing the failure of the Fed’s and CBO’s Keynesian models to accurately forecast the slow recovery. He ends a blog post by asking, “…the question of the day really should be why we have this slump -- which, let us be honest, no serious forecaster expected.” I take exception. Here are excerpts from my book, Unintended Consequences: On the structural nature of the recession: “Investors and consumers have ... Read More

Shouldn’t valid economic theories produce accurate forecasts?

In a series of blog posts, John Cochrane presents two graphs showing how both the Fed and CBO have continued to make significant mistakes in forecasting large Keynesian rebounds, and have slowly revised their forecasts downward. The downward forecasting is consistent with a point I made on March 3rd, after the CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook was published. If Keynesian economics properly modeled the current circumstances, it would make accurate near-term forecasts of ... Read More


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