Edward Conard

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  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
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  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
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  • Mentions 172
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Rural America Reels From Violent Crime. People Lost Their Ever-Lovin Minds.

Zusha Elinson Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
June 28, 2022
Is Database:
Database

@ZushaElinson @WSJ: Rural America saw a 25% rise in homicide rates in 2020, mirroring the nearly 30% spike in metropolitan areas.

@ZushaElinson @WSJ: Rural America saw a 25% rise in homicide rates in 2020, mirroring the nearly 30% spike in metropolitan...
In 2020, rural America experienced a 25% rise in homicide rates, the largest increase since the CDC began tracking such data in 1999, closely mirroring the nearly 30% spike in metropolitan areas. This surge in violence, unprecedented in rural regions, has overwhelmed local law enforcement and prosecutors unaccustomed to handling numerous homicide cases. The pandemic's psychological and financial stressors, coupled with the breakdown of social connections, are speculated to have contributed to this rise. In White County, Arkansas, for example, six murders occurred within a 10-week span starting March 2020, marking an unprecedented level of violence. As the pandemic wore on, some rural counties saw murder rates remain high, while others began to see a decline as COVID-19 receded. The challenges faced by rural law enforcement include limited resources and expansive geographic areas, complicating efforts to address and prevent violent crime effectively.

Dan Frosch, Kris Maher and Zusha Elinson, "Rural America Reels From Violent Crime. ‘People Lost Their Ever-Lovin’ Minds.’,"Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/violent-crime-rural-america-homicides-pandemic-increase-11654864251

Rural America Reels From Violent Crime. ‘People Lost Their Ever-Lovin’ Minds.’

Local prosecutor Rebecca McCoy used to think of her home in central Arkansas as a place where the worst crimes were usually stolen tractors and lawn mowers.

In March 2020, she was called to the trailer of a 72-year-old man who had been bludgeoned to death with a baseball bat. It was White County’s first homicide in almost two years. By that December, there were 11 more.

In Marion County, a swampy stretch of South Carolina, Sheriff Brian Wallace and his deputies worked nine killings in 2021, including the execution-style shooting of an 80-year-old retired teacher whose family the sheriff knew personally. It was the highest annual body count he had seen since he joined the small department more than two decades earlier.

For ranchers Bill and Diana Beck, the violence arrived in their mountain community in northwest Montana in April when a friend texted them a picture of blood in the snow. A local bar owner had been shot to death. It was Flathead County’s 12th homicide since the start of 2020, one of the region’s most violent periods in recent memory.

“I was floored that something like that happened a mile down the road,” said Ms. Beck.

Violent crime isn’t just rising in the nation’s cities. Murder rates across the rural U.S. have soared during the pandemic, data show, bringing the kind of extreme violence long associated with major metropolises to America’s smallest communities.

Homicide rates in rural America rose 25% in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It was the largest rural increase since the agency began tracking such data in 1999. The CDC considers counties rural if they are located outside metropolitan areas defined by the federal government.

The rise came close to the 30% spike in homicide rates in metropolitan areas in 2020.

The CDC hasn’t analyzed 2021 homicide data yet. In some rural counties, murder rates remained high last year, while in others they have begun to recede along with Covid, data from local law-enforcement agencies shows.

County sheriffs are trying to hire more deputies. Small-town prosecutors, unaccustomed to handling numerous homicides cases, find themselves overwhelmed with them.

In cities, law enforcement and civic leaders have blamed the increase in violent crime on factors such as police pulling back after racial-justice protests, the proliferation of guns, initiatives to release more criminal suspects without bail and a pandemic pause in gang-violence prevention programs.

In rural counties, where ties between police and locals are often less fraught, officials say the reasons for the rising violence are hard to pinpoint. They speculate that the breakdown of deeply rooted social connections that bind together many small communities, coupled with the stress of the pandemic, played a role.

Pastors point to the suspension of rituals such as in-person church services, town gatherings and everyday exchanges between neighbors. Such interactions can serve as guardrails, helping to prevent conflicts from turning violent. The psychological and financial stress due to isolation and job loss were especially pronounced in remote areas, where social services were limited even before Covid-19 struck, local leaders say.

As the pandemic took hold in the spring of 2020, fights between family members, acquaintances and even strangers escalated more frequently into deadly confrontations, authorities in some rural counties said.

“You saw the shutdown, crime started increasing, people were on edge, mental-health problems increased, more alcohol was sold,” said Brian Heino, sheriff of Flathead County in Montana.

An American Farm Bureau Federation poll taken in December 2020 found that two-thirds of adults in rural America between the ages of 18 and 44 said they experienced more mental-health challenges than in the prior year. According to a CDC survey conducted in June 2020, 12% of responding adults in rural areas reported starting or increasing their use of drugs or alcohol to cope with pandemic-related stress.

The homicides have been challenging for law enforcement to address. Small numbers of deputies must patrol expansive geographic areas, and the killings were often not connected to each other, making it more difficult to target particular criminal groups or devise effective prevention strategies.

“It’s not like you got gang members dealing drugs, and you can get boots on the ground, and undercover buys and prosecutions,” Marion County’s Sheriff Wallace said. “These are really tough to stop.”

Veteran law-enforcement officials said they had never before witnessed the level of violence of the past two years.

“It was like people lost their ever-lovin’ minds,” said Ms. McCoy, the prosecuting attorney in White County, a dry county in central Arkansas with poultry farms and a Christian university.

In Marion County, S.C., which has about 28,700 residents and more than 100 churches, pews used to be packed every Sunday. After services, people would pour into restaurants to eat seafood and Southern cooking.

When Covid struck, some churches stopped in-person services, and restaurants shut down. Walmart started closing early. People no longer stopped to socialize in the grocery store.

Authorities in rural counties said that as the pandemic wore on, troubled individuals became even more isolated, and in some cases, tipped over the edge.

“There are parts of our county that don’t even have internet service,” said Tammy Erwin, a victims’ advocate for the Marion County Sheriff’s Office. “So it’s not like everyone could just jump on Zoom.”

Just before midnight on Oct. 28, 2020, one of Sheriff Wallace’s deputies came upon an SUV with its windows fogged outside the Park & Blow Handi Mart. He could make out a man inside sweating heavily and sitting on something. When he looked closer, he saw the body of a woman, eyes bulging. She had been stabbed multiple times with an ice pick.

Johnny Michael Dillard, 57, was charged with killing Kemethia Spain, 51, whom he had known for a few years. Several people came forward to say Mr. Dillard had talked openly about wanting to know what it was like to kill someone. He was found not competent to stand trial and has been committed to a facility for the mentally ill.

Ms. Spain’s homicide was one of 15 that Marion County deputies responded to over the past two years, equal to the previous 10 years combined. “I’ve never seen these numbers before, nothing even really close to that,” said Sheriff Wallace.

As lockdowns took hold, the sequestering of family members inflamed household tensions. In Montana, domestic-violence incidents reached a record high in 2020, then jumped even higher in 2021, according to state crime data.

In June 2020, Josh Buls, a detective in the sheriff’s office in Flathead County, arrived at a home in Olney to find the bodies of a woman, her 3-year-old daughter and a male friend. All had been stabbed to death. The perpetrator, the woman’s estranged husband, had shot himself in the head before deputies arrived.

The killings shocked not only the 146 residents of the mountain town, but many in the sheriff’s office, which patrols more than 5,000 square miles of rugged territory bordering Canada. One deputy who responded to the 911 call that day decided to leave the profession, said Mr. Buls.

The six homicides in 2020 in this county of 108,000 were a record, as were the 51 statewide, according to state crime analysts.

Flathead County’s Sheriff Heino said rising methamphetamine use and mental-health problems during the pandemic contributed to more erratic behavior and more violent interactions between officers and suspects. Law enforcement in the county was involved in six shootings since May 2020, including four fatal ones. Before then, the last time a Flathead County deputy had killed anyone was 2007.

When the owner of Snow Slip Motel Bar & Cafe near Essex, Mont., was shot dead in April, news spread quickly among those living near the peaks and forests of Glacier National Park. Jim Noffsinger, a 57-year-old construction superintendent and rancher, locked his front doors for the first time.

“I’ve been accused of many things in my life, but being scared was never one of them,” he said. “Such a place of serenity has taken on a dark shadow.”

For Ms. McCoy, the prosecutor from White County, Ark., the unprecedented string of homicides in 2020 began the same month that Covid hit. Over a nightmarish 10 weeks starting that March 4, six people were murdered in the small towns that dot the county of 77,000, about 60 miles northeast of Little Rock.

Ms. McCoy searched for any common thread. Three of the victims were men in their 70s who lived alone, including one who was shot in the face when he opened his front door.

“At first we’re thinking, wow, if you’re an older man living by yourself, you might want to move out of county, because apparently it’s not safe in White County for you,” said Ms. McCoy.

To keep the cases straight, Ms. McCoy took out a white board she hadn’t used in years. As the killings continued, her “murder board” filled up, and she finally had to rewrite the names of victims and suspects and hearing dates in smaller letters to fit. It was the deadliest stretch of her 23-year career.

She said she felt helpless. “I don’t know what to say, besides y’all stop killing each other,” said Ms. McCoy.

With homicide cases mounting, Ms. McCoy told her staff of prosecutors who had little experience with murder cases to focus on their families when the workday ended. For the first time in her career, she said, she had trouble clearing her mind of gruesome crime-scene images when she returned home to her own family each night.

During an interview in her office in Searcy, Ark., as a rescue cat named Catticus maneuvered between murder case files stacked on the floor, Ms. McCoy shed tears recalling the day in June 2020 when she and county detectives arrived at a house in the town of Bald Knob to find the body of a 5-year-old girl whose throat had been slit by her father. They found the father overdosed in his car in a nearby state park a few hours later. Attempts to revive him failed.

Prosecutors in rural areas have struggled to identify motives behind many of the murders. Ms. McCoy concluded that the stress of the pandemic had contributed to disagreements escalating into violence.

That spring, 77-year-old Julius Williams Jr. was killed in what appears to have been a dispute about his lawn. Mr. Williams had lived much of his life in Kensett, a town of about 1,500 with weathered houses, weedy yards and a single main intersection.

Jason Baxter, a 26-year-old resident of a nearby trailer park, asked Mr. Williams if he could mow the older man’s yard, according to court records. Mr. Williams declined.

Days later, police found him lying inside his front door in a pool of blood. Mr. Baxter admitted to police that he had shot Mr. Williams, who was Black, “right in the eye,” according to a transcript of his police interview.

Investigators found rambling notes written by Mr. Baxter, who is white, about protecting white children.

Lee Short, a lawyer appointed by the state to represent three White County murder suspects, including Mr. Baxter, said Mr. Baxter had mental-health issues.

Mr. Williams’s daughter Thunder Nkere said she couldn’t believe he was killed in the tiny town where she grew up. “It’s one of those little country bumpkin places where everyone knows each other,” she said.

Last year, the number of homicides in White County declined to four. Ms. McCoy said she hoped the easing of the pandemic would help continue the decrease in numbers.

Killings in the county haven’t yet fallen to prepandemic levels, and the sheriff’s office has strained to keep up, even after more than doubling the number of detectives. It recently converted a donated ambulance into a crime-scene vehicle. It also bought new equipment, including a machine that can extract cellphone data in hours, compared with waiting months for a state lab to process such data.

In April, Mr. Baxter pleaded guilty to first-degree murder and was sentenced to 40 years in prison. Ms. McCoy wiped away one line on her murder board.

Violent crime isn’t just rising in the nation’s cities. Murder rates across the rural U.S. have soared during the pandemic, data show, bringing the kind of extreme violence long associated with major metropolises to America’s smallest communities. Homicide rates in rural America rose 25% in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It was the largest rural increase since the agency began tracking such data in 1999. The CDC considers counties rural if they are located outside metropolitan areas defined by the federal government. The rise came close to the 30% spike in homicide rates in metropolitan areas in 2020. The CDC hasn’t analyzed 2021 homicide data yet. In some rural counties, murder rates remained high last year, while in others they have begun to recede along with Covid, data from local law-enforcement agencies shows. Veteran law-enforcement officials said they had never before witnessed the level of violence of the past two years. “It was like people lost their ever-lovin’ minds,” said Ms. McCoy, the prosecuting attorney in White County, a dry county in central Arkansas with poultry farms and a Christian university. For Ms. McCoy the unprecedented string of homicides in 2020 began the same month that Covid hit. Over a nightmarish 10 weeks starting that March 4, six people were murdered in the small towns that dot the county of 77,000, about 60 miles northeast of Little Rock.

Ed Comment:The rise in the rural crime rates suggests that covid (and bail) reform may be a factor in addition to the Fergusen/Floyd effect.

  • Poverty/Crime
  • Comparisons
    • Geography (Urban/Rural)
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Showing 70 database articles primarily about Poverty/Crime

An Extra Point for Attendance: The Impact of High School Varsity Athletics on Absenteeism

AI Summary. High school varsity sports participation reduces student absenteeism by ~20%, with absence rates falling further during active seasons, indicating the relationship is at least partly causal rather than purely a result of selection.

Nat Malkus and Sam Hollon American Enterprise Institute
Date Posted:
April 16, 2026
Is Database:
Database

The absentee rate of Indiana high school students, ~23% of whom played a varsity sport, was ~20% lower for those who participated in varsity athletics than for non-athletes. The effect was stronger when an athlete’s particular sport was in season.

Does participation in high school sports significantly reduce student absenteeism?

Core argument: Varsity athletes’ absence rates drop 1.37 pts below non-athletes’, a ~20% reduction that drives improved school engagement year-round.

We find that varsity sports participation is strongly associated with better student attendance, and we argue it is plausible that varsity sports participation causes better attendance. When we control for a number of factors that we know matter for both sports participation and attendance, we continue to find that varsity athletes are absent less often than their peers across the entire year. Across the school year, athletes’ absence rate was 1.37 points lower than non-athletes’. That’s a reduction of almost 20%. The broad pattern shown in Table 1 is that students from more advantaged groups were more likely to participate in varsity sports and less likely to be absent from school. It’s thus no surprise that, in the raw data, there is an association between playing varsity sports and having good attendance (Figure 3). But is that because students who attend school more reliably are more likely to play sports or because playing sports leads to better attendance? One way to tease out the answer is to compare varsity athletes' attendance during their sports seasons with their attendance the rest of the year. Not only do varsity athletes have lower annual absence rates—especially unexcused absences—than non-athletes, but [Figure 3 and Figure 4] show that their absence rates fall further when their sport is in season, [which suggests at least some causal effect].

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Varsity athletes’ absence rates drop 1.37 pts below non-athletes’, a ~20% reduction that drives improved school engagement year-round.
  2. In-season absence rates fall further for varsity athletes, suggesting sports participation directly leads to more reliable attendance patterns.
  3. Athletes from advantaged backgrounds show stronger attendance gains, indicating varsity sports participation compounds existing socioeconomic advantages in school engagement.

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Sports Betting Across Borders: Spatial Spillovers, Credit Distress, and Fiscal Externalities

Jacob Goss and Daniel Mangrum Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Date Posted:
March 27, 2026
Is Database:
Database

After the legalization of sports betting in 2018, delinquency rates on a wide range of consumer debts rose, increasing .31pp as of 2025. The delinquency rate for the ~3% of the population that were new gamblers increased by ~10pp driven by those under 40.

Exploiting the staggered roll-out of state-level legalization following the 2018 Murphy v. NCAA decision, we use an extended two-way fixed effects (ETWFE) framework that separately estimates direct treatment effects and cross-border spillover effects. Our first-stage estimates establish that legalization dramatically increases betting activity: average quarterly spending per person rises by roughly $46 from a pre-treatment mean of $2.50, and the share of the population with any sportsbook spending in a quarter increases by 3.1 percentage points. The effects on average spending grow continually over time with no clear evidence of saturation, suggesting the market for mobile sports betting continues to mature years after legalization. At the same time, substantial betting activity occurs in counties where sports betting is not legal but which lie near a legal state, with spillover effects on total spending roughly 14% of the direct effect for counties within 15 miles of a legal state, declining monotonically with distance and approaching zero by 60 miles. These spillovers have real consequences for consumer financial health. Three years after legalization, median credit scores are one point lower and overall delinquency rates increase by 0.31 percentage points following legalization. [Under-40 auto loan delinquency increases by half a percentage point and credit card delinquency by one percentage point, driving the overall increase in delinquency.] Since only about 3.1% of the population takes up betting after legalization, these intent-to-treat estimates would imply that those who are induced to bet due to legalization experience delinquency increases of 10 percentage points.

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  • From Sports to AI, America Is Awash in Speculative Fever. Washington Is Egging It On — Citing the AI-related equity boom, crypto and the rise of sports betting, Greg Ip argues that “speculation has become woven into today’s political…
  • Poverty/Crime
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New York City Government Services: Services for the Unsheltered

Thomas DiNapoli New York State Comptroller
Date Posted:
March 16, 2026
Is Database:
Database

In 2025 New York City spent $81,705 per “street” homeless person, up 262% from 2019 whose numbers increased 26% during that period. This does not include spending on “sheltered” homeless, who are ~97% of the homeless population.

New York City’s unsheltered population increased from 3,588 in FY 2019 to 4,504 in FY 2025 — a 26% increase from pre-pandemic levels. In that time, spending on services for this population has more than tripled, growing from $102 million in FY 2019 to nearly $368 million in FY 2025 (a 262% increase). Its share of spending has also increased, from just under 5% to nearly 9% of total Department of Homeless Services (DHS) spending.

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  • Supply and The Mam — At ~15%, NYC has the highest combined city-state personal tax rate in the US, and the top marginal corporate income tax rate at 17.4%. The city also has the…
  • Poverty/Crime
  • Fiscal Policy
    • Government Spending
  • Workforce

Poverty and Dependency in the United States, 1939–2023

Richard Burkhauser and Kevin Corinth National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
February 3, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Btw 1939 and 1963, the % of Americans below LBJ’s absolute poverty line (3× the cost of a minimal meal plan), fell from 48.5 to 19.5, driven by rising market income. Post-1964, most (for non-blacks, all) drops were the result of transfers, not earnings.

The major innovation of this paper is to extend a comprehensive and consistent measure of poverty back to 1939, exploiting a quarter century of data before the War on Poverty began. From 1939-1963, absolute poverty fell from 48.5% to 19.5%, a 29 percentage point reduction. This pre-war progress provides important context for previously documented success in reducing poverty afterwards, since it occurred before the major expansion of safety net programs like SNAP, Medicaid, and refundable tax credits. During that 1939–1963 period, it was the growth of market income rather than government transfers net of taxes that reduced poverty rates. In fact, poverty fell no faster in the 24 years after the War on Poverty was declared than in the 24 years before, even when applying the same initial poverty rate to both periods. Our results do not imply that poverty would have necessarily continued to fall at the same rate after 1963 in the absence of the War on Poverty. A pre versus post comparison is conflated by contemporaneous macroeconomic and social changes, such as slower economic growth in the post-1963 period. Conversely, any claim that the War on Poverty was necessary for poverty to decline should be accompanied by an attempt to understand why it had already been falling in the quarter century before it was declared.

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  • Government Benefit Programs Already Do A Lot To Help Low Income Families — A 2-adult, 3-child US family with $20,000 of market income receives at least $61,000 in annual benefits and has $79,000 of disposable income. That same family…
  • Poverty/Crime
  • Fiscal Policy
    • Government Spending
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The Biggest Fraud in Welfare

Phil Gramm and John Early Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
December 18, 2025
Is Database:
Database

Counting non-cash benefits as income would reduce the 19.8mm US households defined as poor by 90%. If the $1.4T in annual Federal poverty spending, including non-cash benefits, were distributed in cash to those households, each would receive $70,000.

Counting non-cash benefits as income would reduce the 19.8mm US households defined as poor by 90%. If the $1.4T in annual...
The government’s failure to count its largess as recipients’ income allows welfare households to blow past the income level above which a working family no longer qualifies for government help. Take a single parent with two school-age children who earns $11,000 annually from part-time work. The government considers this household in poverty because its income is below $25,273. But this family would qualify for benefits worth $53,128. It would receive Treasury checks of $3,400 in refundable child tax credits and $4,400 in refundable earned-income tax credits. The family would also receive Food Stamp debit cards worth $9,216 a year, $9,476 in housing subsidies, $877 of government payments for utility bills, $16,033 to fund Medicaid, $3,102 in free meals at school and $6,624 in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families. All this puts the family’s income at $64,128, or 254% of the poverty level. A hardworking family earning anything like $64,128 in salary wouldn’t be eligible for any of these welfare benefits in four-fifths of the states. Meanwhile, the welfare family would be eligible for another 90 small federal benefits and sundry state and local welfare programs.

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Explaining the Widening Divides in US Midlife Mortality: Is There a Smoking Gun?

Christopher Foote, Ellen Meara, Jonathan Skinner, and Luke Stewart National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
December 17, 2025
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

The college/non-college life expectancy gap widened from 2.6–6.3 years btw 1992 and 2019, while county mortality inequality jumped 30% to the detriment of rural areas. Smoking by state predicts ~300 extra deaths per 100k for non-college grads, 0 for grads.

The education-mortality gradient has increased sharply in the last three decades, with the life expectancy gap btw people with and without a college degree widening from 2.6 years in 1992 to 6.3 years in 2019. During the same period, mortality inequality across counties rose 30%, accompanied by an increasing rural health penalty. Using county- and state-level data from the 1992–2019 period, we demonstrate that these three trends arose due to a fundamental shift in the geographic patterns of mortality among college and non-college populations. First, we find a sharp decline in both mortality rates and geographic inequality for college graduates. Second, the reverse was true for people without a college degree; spatial inequality became amplified. Third, we find that rates of smoking play a key role in explaining all three empirical puzzles, with secondary roles attributed to income, other health behaviors, and state policies. [An objection is that] the non-college smoking rate declined by somewhat more than the college rate from 1992 to 2019. [The resolution is that] college populations gave up smoking decades before non-college populations did. [The key] college/non-college comparison [is] among 55–64 year-olds, the age group for which the smoking mortality penalty is greatest.

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