“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management

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Senator Elizabeth Warren's Wealth Tax: Projected Budgetary and Economic Effects

John Ricco University of Pennsylvania

Date Posted:: December 12, 2019
Is Database:: Database

Warren’s Wealth Tax Would Reduce GDP by 1-2% by 2050, generating $2.3tn to $2.7tn in additional revenue from 2021 to 2030, according to @JohnRicco @PennWharton @Penn.

The Penn Wharton Budget Model forecasts that Warren's wealth tax could reduce GDP by 1-2% by 2050, while generating $2.3tn to $2.7tn in additional revenue from 2021 to 2030. This revenue estimate is $1tn less than Warren's team's projection. If the additional revenues are used to reduce the deficit, GDP is projected to decline by 0.9% by 2050. However, if spent on public investments, GDP could fall between 1.1% and 2.1%, depending on investment productivity. Average hourly wages, including those of households not directly subject to the tax, are expected to decrease by 0.8% to 2.3% due to reduced private capital formation.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects Senator Elizabeth Warren's wealth tax would raise $2.3tn–$2.7tn over 2021–2030, about $1tn less than Warren's team's own revenue projection.
Penn Wharton projects the wealth tax would reduce GDP by 1–2% by 2050, with a 0.9% decline if revenues reduce the deficit and a 1.1–2.1% decline if spent on public investments, depending on investment productivity.
Penn Wharton projects average hourly wages, including those of households not directly subject to the wealth tax, would fall 0.8%–2.3% due to reduced private capital formation.

Penn Wharton Budget Model forecats that if implemented Warren’s wealth tax would reduce GDP by about 1 to 2 percent by 2050 and raise between $2.3 trillion (including macroeconomic effects) and $2.7 trillion (not including macroeconomic effects) in additional revenue in the 10-year window 2021 - 2030 (That’s 1 trillion under Warren’s team’s estimate) Note attached short WSJ writeup of paper.

“…. PWBM projects that the proposal would reduce GDP by 0.9 percent in 2050 under the standard budget scoring convention that additional revenues reduce the deficit.If the revenues were instead spent on public investments, PWBM projects GDP in 2050 would fall between 1.1 and 2.1 percent, depending on the productivity of the investment. Average hourly wages in the economy in 2050, including wages earned by households not directly subject to the wealth tax, would fall between 0.8 and 2.3 percent due to the reduction in private capital formation…”

John Ricco, Zheli He and Jon Huntley, "Senator Elizabeth Warren's Wealth Tax: Projected Budgetary and Economic Effects," University of Pennsylvania, https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2019/12/12/senator-elizabeth-warrens-wealth-tax-projected-budgetary-and-economic-effects

Who Sees Themselves as Working Class?

Steven Shepard, Hannah Hartig, Andy Cerda and Jocelyn Kiley Pew Research Center

Date Posted:: September 1, 2026
Is Database:: Database

60% of Americans say “working class” describes them “extremely” or “very” well. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to identify as working class – strikingly 61% of Republicans who have a family income of at least $155,600 identify as working class, compared to 38% of such Democrats.

Most Americans think of themselves as “working class” today: Overall, 60% of U.S. adults say the term describes them well. And the identity is widely adopted by people across all income and educational groups – including half of both Americans who have a bachelor’s degree and those who are upper-income. Those working in blue-collar occupations are particularly likely to identify as working class (77%), [as are] a majority of those working in other occupations (61%). White adults are more likely than Black adults to identify as working class. About six-in-ten White (62%) and Hispanic adults (59%) overall view themselves as working class, as do roughly half of Black (54%) and Asian adults (52%).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

60% of U.S. adults say the term "working class" describes them well, an identity adopted across income and educational groups, including half of those with a bachelor's degree and half of upper-income Americans.
Workers in blue-collar occupations identify as working class at a rate of 77%, compared with 61% of those in other occupations.
About 62% of White and 59% of Hispanic adults view themselves as working class, as do roughly 54% of Black and 52% of Asian adults.

The Rise of Anger: Emotions and Policy Views

Eva Davoine, Stefanie Stantcheva, Thomas Renault and Yann Algan Harvard University

Date Posted:: August 20, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Davoine, et al. show that angry policy-related tweets among voters rose from 34% to 46% over 2013–2025. Angry posts got ~60% more retweets, and experiments that induced anger showed it can move views on trade, immigration, redistribution and climate.

Figure 6 illustrates the monthly evolution of anger among Democratic- and Republican-affiliated X [Twitter] users. Each line reports the share of sentences classified as expressing anger within each political affiliation, and the plotted series are shown as six-month moving averages. It shows that Republican voters start with a higher baseline level of anger at the beginning of the period (about 38% compared to 27% for Democrats). Anger rises sharply for both groups after the 2016 election, but much more among Democrats. As a result, the initial partisan gap is much smaller by 2019. Both series then plateau from 2019 to 2022. Among Democratic partisans, anger declines slightly after Biden’s election but remains well above pre-2016 levels. Republican anger continues to rise during the Biden presidency, reaching approximately 50% by 2025.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Anger among Republican-affiliated X users reaches roughly 50% of sentences by 2025, up from about 38% at the start of the period, continuing to rise during Biden's presidency.
Democratic-affiliated X users start with anger in about 27% of sentences, then rise sharply after the 2016 election by much more than Republicans, narrowing the partisan gap by 2019.
Both partisan anger series plateau from 2019 to 2022, with Democratic anger declining slightly after Biden's election while remaining well above pre-2016 levels.

The DSA Sweet Spot: Highly Educated, Downwardly Mobile

Nate Silver Silver Bulletin

Date Posted:: July 22, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

Silver finds that the most liberal voters are highly educated and lower-income. Only 19% of Americans with a college degree had a household income of $60,000 or less, but responders to a DSA survey were ~ twice as likely to fall into that category.

The US voters most likely to identify as “very liberal” are those with postgraduate degrees but lower-to-middle household incomes of $30K to $60K per year. This is very much also the sweet spot for the DSA. In the DSA’s most recent member survey in 2021, 80% of members aged 25 or older had bachelor’s degrees, but 45% had household incomes below $60,000 per year. This is unusual because education and income are usually substantially positively correlated. In the composite CES data, only 19% of Americans with bachelor’s degrees or higher had household incomes of $60K or below, while respondents to the most recent DSA survey [were twice as likely to fall into this category].

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

In the Democratic Socialists of America's 2021 member survey, 80% of members aged 25 or older held bachelor's degrees while 45% reported household incomes below $60,000 per year.
Composite CES data show only 19% of Americans with bachelor's degrees or higher had household incomes of $60,000 or below, while DSA survey respondents were twice as likely to fall into that category.
US voters most likely to identify as "very liberal" are those with postgraduate degrees and household incomes of $30,000 to $60,000 per year, an unusual pairing since education and income are usually substantially positively correlated.

America’s Support for Capitalism Has Declined Over Last Decade

Aaron Zitner Wall Street Journal

Date Posted:: July 9, 2026
Is Database:: Database

A new WSJ poll finds only 35% of Americans think the assertion that “if you work hard, you’ll get ahead” still holds. Only 42% of respondents aged 18–34 think capitalism is working very or somewhat well, relative to 56% of those 65 or older.

Americans are losing confidence in two main pillars of society: capitalism and democracy. Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very well or even somewhat well, down from 60% who said so about a decade ago, according to a new Wall Street Journal-NORC survey. Only 35% are even fairly sure that the nation offers people the ability to get good jobs and achieve the American dream. Confidence in the nation’s system of government is even lower. Only 12% say democracy is working very well or extremely well, and a mere 16% say average citizens have considerable influence on politics. Two-thirds of Republicans said they were very proud of American history, three times the share of Democrats who said so. And Republicans in the survey stood apart in their belief in American exceptionalism, the long-held idea that the U.S. is unique or superior among nations. Nearly half of Republicans said that America stands above all other countries in the world, compared with only 8% of Democrats and 13% of independents.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very or somewhat well, down from 60% about a decade ago, according to a Wall Street Journal-NORC survey.
Only 12% of Americans say democracy is working very or extremely well, 16% say average citizens have considerable influence on politics, and 35% are fairly sure the nation offers good jobs and the American dream.
Two-thirds of Republicans said they were very proud of American history, three times the Democratic share, and nearly half said America stands above all other countries, compared with 8% of Democrats and 13% of independents.

America Used To Be Exceptionally Patriotic. Now We're Below Average

Eli McKown-Dawson and Nate Silver Silver Bulletin

Date Posted:: July 8, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Gallup finds only 17% of Democrats are “extremely proud” to be an American, versus 30% of independents and 74% of Republicans – notable declines from 2005–2009, when 58% of Democrats/independents and 79% of Republicans were “extremely proud” to be an American.

During George W. Bush’s second term, an average of 58% of Democrats were extremely proud to be American according to Gallup, as was an identical share of independents — though Republicans were higher. The rough parity between Democrats and independents lasted through Barack Obama’s second term, but the share of extremely proud Democrats fell to an average of 30% during Trump’s first term and was just 14% in the most recent Gallup poll. Although Republicans are generally more patriotic, their opinions can shift based on who occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue too. The share of Republicans extremely proud to be American fell from 79% on average during Bush’s second term to 60% during Biden’s term. What happened after Trump retook office? It jumped right back up to 74%.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The share of Democrats extremely proud to be American fell from an average of 58% during George W. Bush's second term to 30% during Trump's first term and 14% in the most recent Gallup poll.
Republicans extremely proud to be American averaged 79% during Bush's second term, fell to 60% during Biden's term, and rebounded to 74% after Trump retook office, according to Gallup.
Gallup found Democrats and independents at an identical 58% extremely proud to be American during Bush's second term, with that rough parity lasting through Obama's second term.

Texas Is Becoming America Inc’s Centre Of Gravity

Economist Staff The Economist

Date Posted:: June 2, 2026
Is Database:: Database

According to CBRE, at least 184 American firms, including Tesla and Caterpillar, moved their headquarters to Austin, Dallas or Houston btw 2020 and 2025. During that period, Texas drove ~20% of all net job creation in the US.

On May 27th the shareholders of ExxonMobil approved a plan to cut its ties with New Jersey and reincorporate in Texas, where it has long had its headquarters. The oil giant is not alone. Texas is steadily establishing itself as America Inc’s new centre of gravity. No state receives more business investment or is adding more people to its population. From 2020 to 2025 it created roughly a fifth of all net new jobs in the country. It is only a matter of time before Texas overtakes California as the largest economy in America. Texas’s success should worry those in New York and California monitoring their tax take. At the same time it has spawned a raft of imitators. Legislators in North Carolina have passed a plan to get rid of its corporate-income tax by 2030. Tennessee has copied Texas’s strategy of offering firms shovel-ready mega-sites. Nevada is trying to launch its own business court.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Texas created roughly a fifth of all net new jobs in the United States from 2020 to 2025, and no state receives more business investment or adds more people to its population.
ExxonMobil's shareholders approved a plan to cut ties with New Jersey and reincorporate in Texas, where the oil giant has long had its headquarters.
Other states are imitating Texas: North Carolina's legislators passed a plan to eliminate its corporate-income tax by 2030, Tennessee offers firms shovel-ready mega-sites, and Nevada is trying to launch its own business court.

Warren’s Wealth Tax Would Reduce GDP by 1-2% by 2050, generating $2.3tn to $2.7tn in additional revenue from 2021 to 2030, according to @JohnRicco @PennWharton @Penn.

Would a wealth tax raise less revenue while shrinking output and wages?

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Do most Americans identify as working class across income and education levels?

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Davoine, et al. show that angry policy-related tweets among voters rose from 34% to 46% over 2013–2025. Angry posts got ~60% more retweets, and experiments that induced anger showed it can move views on trade, immigration, redistribution and climate.

Is anger rising among partisans on social media?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Silver finds that the most liberal voters are highly educated and lower-income. Only 19% of Americans with a college degree had a household income of $60,000 or less, but responders to a DSA survey were ~ twice as likely to fall into that category.

Do highly educated, lower-income voters identify as very liberal?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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A new WSJ poll finds only 35% of Americans think the assertion that “if you work hard, you’ll get ahead” still holds. Only 42% of respondents aged 18–34 think capitalism is working very or somewhat well, relative to 56% of those 65 or older.

Has American confidence in capitalism and democracy declined?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Gallup finds only 17% of Democrats are “extremely proud” to be an American, versus 30% of independents and 74% of Republicans – notable declines from 2005–2009, when 58% of Democrats/independents and 79% of Republicans were “extremely proud” to be an American.

Has American pride declined and shifted with the ruling party?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

According to CBRE, at least 184 American firms, including Tesla and Caterpillar, moved their headquarters to Austin, Dallas or Houston btw 2020 and 2025. During that period, Texas drove ~20% of all net job creation in the US.

Is Texas becoming the center of American business investment and growth?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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