Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Fossil fuels' share of global primary energy fell only from about 86% to 82% over 25 years, while absolute fossil fuel consumption rose nearly 55%. Emission cuts in the EU (-23%) and US (-9%) were outweighed by China's 3.3x and India's 3x increases, with energy-sector carbon dioxide emissions up 54%.

Vaclav Smil J.P. Morgan
Date Posted:

Vaclav Smil argues that zero carbon by 2050 is highly unlikely: since 1997, overall CO2 emissions have grown by 54% as absolute cuts of -23% in the EU and -9% in the US were more than offset by China’s rising 3.3x and India’s up 3x.

How much has the world actually decarbonized its energy supply?

Core argument: Fossil fuels' share of world primary energy consumption fell only from nearly 86% in 1997 to about 82% in 2022, while absolute fossil fuel consumption rose nearly 55% over the same period.

All we had managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline of fossil fuel’s share in the world’s primary energy consumption, from nearly 86% in 1997 to about 82% in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase of fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55% more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in the year 1997. Absolute cuts in carbon emissions that took place in such large economies as the EU (-23%) and the US (-9%) were far surpassed by massive absolute gains in the world’s two largest industrializing nations –- China’s emissions rose 3.3 times, India’s three times. The conclusion is unequivocal: by 2023, after a quarter century of targeted energy transition, there was no absolute global decarbonization of energy supply, just the opposite as the world had substantially increased its dependence on fossil carbon. Between 1997 and 2022 annual emissions of CO2 from the fossil fuel energy sector rose from about 25.5 billion tons CO2e to about 39.3 billion tons (54% rise).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Fossil fuels' share of world primary energy consumption fell only from nearly 86% in 1997 to about 82% in 2022, while absolute fossil fuel consumption rose nearly 55% over the same period.
  2. Annual CO2 emissions from the fossil fuel energy sector rose from about 25.5 billion tons CO2e in 1997 to about 39.3 billion tons in 2022, a 54% increase.
  3. Emissions cuts in the EU (-23%) and the US (-9%) between 1997 and 2022 were far surpassed by increases in China, where emissions rose 3.3 times, and India, where they rose three times.

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