Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. An analysis projects barely 15GW of net-new firm US grid capacity that operators can recognize to serve data centers and other constant loads, rising toward 20GW+ by the end of the decade. After covering peak demand and required reserve margins, the authors estimate spare capacity approaches zero and turns negative by 2027.

Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Sebastian Orejas, Ellie Holbrook and Dylan Patel Semianalysis
Date Posted:

A Semianalysis forecast suggests “Behind-The-Meter” production “will power well over half of new US datacenters in 2028+,” as the US grid cannot scale to keep pace with AI Labs’ and hyperscalers’ demand.

Can the US grid add enough firm capacity to serve data centers?

Core argument: The authors forecast barely 15GW of net-new Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) capacity added annually to the US grid, rising toward 20GW+ by the end of the decade, to serve firm datacenter load alongside other firm load such as industrial plants and semiconductor fabs.

The chart shows the three core building blocks of our forecast: Expected Datacenter US Gross Power Demand, available US Grid Capacity, and New Grid Supply. Our forecast points to barely 15GW of net-new Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) capacity being added annually, with a rising trend towards 20GW+ by the end of the decade. This is effectively all the firm capacity being added to the system that a grid operator can recognise to serve firm datacenter load, as well as other firm load like industrial plants, semiconductor fabs, etc. Netting that accredited supply against peak demand and required reserve margins is what yields headroom itself, the spare accredited capacity a market has left to host new load after covering its own peak demand and required reserve margin. On this basis, available headroom is already approaching zero and turns negative by 2027, based on our analysis of required reserve margins across the country.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The authors forecast barely 15GW of net-new Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) capacity added annually to the US grid, rising toward 20GW+ by the end of the decade, to serve firm datacenter load alongside other firm load such as industrial plants and semiconductor fabs.
  2. Available US grid headroom — the spare accredited capacity left after covering peak demand and required reserve margins — is approaching zero and turns negative by 2027, according to the authors' analysis of required reserve margins across the country.
  3. The authors build their forecast from three components: expected datacenter US gross power demand, available US grid capacity, and new grid supply.

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  • Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026 — Estimates based on primary energy overstate how much electricity is needed to replace oil in passenger cars, since electric motors convert 80%-90% of electricity into motion versus about 18% for gasoline cars. Measuring useful final energy net of waste heat avoids this "primary energy fallacy": the US consumed 45 exajoules of useful final energy versus 95 exajoules of primary energy.
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