“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
“There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal

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The World Should Not Ignore China’s Undervalued Currency

Brad Setser Council on Foreign Relations

Date Posted:: August 3, 2026

Properly accounting for imports of gold and chips, China’s current account surplus is ~6% of GDP. Using the IMF formulation, Setser argues this implies the renminbi is undervalued btw 30–35%.

China’s current account surplus is now reported to be around 4% of GDP—or 3 percentage points higher than what the IMF estimates it should be. That works out, using the IMF’s own calculations, to an undervaluation of roughly 20%. If adjustments are made for China’s surging gold imports (1.5% of GDP in Q2) and its obviously misreported investment income balance (China reports a deficit of $125 billion on $4 trillion in net assets, something that no one—the IMF included—can explain) the current account surplus would rise to around 6 percent of GDP and the estimated undervaluation would increase to between 30 and 35%. The upward adjustment to China’s surplus should not be controversial: the customs surplus excluding gold is now an incredible 7% of China’s GDP, the services deficit is only 1% of GDP and a long history of surpluses should lead to a positive net foreign asset position and thus external investment income (as in Korea, Taiwan and Japan).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

China’s current account surplus of ~4% of GDP sits 3 percentage points above IMF norms, implying ~20% currency undervaluation—rising to 30–35% once gold imports (1.5% of GDP) and an unexplained $125 billion investment income deficit on $4 trillion in net assets are corrected.
China’s customs surplus excluding gold reached 7% of GDP against a services deficit of only 1% of GDP, making the reported headline surplus a material understatement of external imbalance.
China’s $4 trillion net foreign asset position should generate positive investment income—as it does in Korea, Taiwan, and Japan—yet China reports a $125 billion deficit, a statistical anomaly the IMF cannot explain.

World’s Unusually High Dollar Exposure Risks Fueling Selloff

Ruth Carson, Masaki Kondo, and Anya Andrianova Bloomberg

Date Posted:: September 3, 2026
Is Database:: Database

A Bloomberg analysis finds only 41% of global investors’ foreign-currency exposure is hedged in six major markets, the lowest level since 2015. Foreigners now hold almost $40T of American assets.

Sift through the filings of pension funds and insurers around the world and one thing stands out: some of the biggest holders of US assets have little protection against a weaker dollar, leaving the currency at risk of steeper declines if sentiment suddenly turns. Across markets [Canada, Denmark, Australia, Taiwan, Japan and Finland for which data is available] investors hedged just 41% of their foreign-currency exposure as of June 30 — the lowest since at least 2015. While not a complete picture, it offers a glimpse into how the sudden rush last year to hedge against dollar losses triggered by President Donald Trump’s global tariff rollout has faded as the US currency slowly stabilized.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Global institutional investors hedged just 41% of their foreign-currency exposure as of June 30—the lowest share since at least 2015—leaving dollar-denominated assets acutely vulnerable to a sentiment-driven selloff.
The retreat from peak hedging activity reflects fading demand for dollar-loss protection after the U.S. currency stabilized following the tariff-driven shock, compressing a key buffer against renewed depreciation.

What Are U.S. Treasury Markets Really Telling Us? Part II

Hanno Lustig The Two Cents

Date Posted:: September 1, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Lustig presents a decomposition that attributes 156bp of the 254bp rise in the 10-year yield since March 2022 to an increase in the term premium, which he associates with the additional duration risk borne by investors as the Fed reduced its balance sheet.

I plot a decomposition of the increase in the 10-year yield into a term premium component and a future short rate component. According to this measure, a big chunk —1.56 pps (or nearly 2/3 rds)— of the 2.54 pps increase in the 10-year yield since March 2022 is actually due to an increase in the term premium. That premium (the red line in the figure) turned negative around 2015, and [when] it bottomed out in 2020, yields (black line) were trading 135 bps below the path of future short rates (blue line). That’s not entirely surprising: The Fed was absorbing a large share of Treasury issuance at the long end of the yield curve —as well as MBS issuance— effectively removing a great deal of interest rate risk from the market.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Term premium accounts for 1.56 percentage points — nearly two-thirds — of the 2.54-point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield since March 2022, dwarfing the 98-basis-point contribution from rising expected short rates.
The term premium bottomed at -1.355% in 2020, when Fed absorption of long-end Treasury and MBS issuance stripped duration risk from the market and pushed yields 135 basis points below the expected path of short rates.
The term premium’s steady climb since 2022 signals that investors now demand compensation for bearing interest rate risk rather than paying for the privilege, reversing a multi-year structural distortion created by quantitative easing.

Is the AI Buildout Pushing Up Yields?

Robin Brooks Robin Brooks Substack

Date Posted:: August 27, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Brooks argues, “The AI buildout isn’t why government bond yields are rising,” noting the US non-financial corporate sector was a net saver as of Q1 2026, which suggests government deficit spending is driving up long yields.

The chart shows quarterly data for the US saving-investment balance going back to 1990. This is an identity that apportions the current account balance into net saving in various sectors of the economy. Households tend to be net savers, as is the financial sector and non-financial corporates. The government tends to be a net borrower. The last time we had a lot of excitement about technological innovation and higher productivity growth was in the “IT bubble” of the early 2000s, which saw non-financial corporates flip from being net savers to borrowers, i.e. the capex buildout at the time was very large and - for a few years - accounted for the entire current account deficit. Nothing like that’s happening now. It’s government dissaving, i.e. the budget deficit, that’s eating up resources, while the non-financial corporate sector stayed a net saver in data through the first quarter of this year.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Government dissaving—not corporate capital expenditure—is the primary driver of U.S. domestic savings consumption and current account deterioration.

Bessent Bounce Starts to Emerge in Long Bond Market Metrics

Greg Ritchie and Elizabeth Stanton Bloomberg

Date Posted:: August 26, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Modest compression of the spreads between Treasury yields and synthetic “swap” securities (~5.5bp for the 30 year and ~3bp for the 10 year) suggest Bessent’s Treasury purchase program has had a degree of success at lowering long-term government yields.

Since Bessent’s announcement, Treasuries have outperformed equivalent-maturity swaps, narrowing the 30-year spread to the smallest since February. Swaps are popular with some investors as an alternative to owning bonds; the gap between [swap rates] and US government yields [gauges] how willing [investors] are to hold Treasuries instead. The 10-year swap spread has compressed too, with the gap three basis points smaller at around 38 basis points. Still, the recent drop has only dented a years-long rise in long-term US government borrowing costs. The 10-year US yield inched up 3bp to 4.66% after touching 4.75% last week. “While conducting buybacks at the long end of the yield curve may technically decrease yields, higher structural US budget deficits, which [require] a significant supply of Treasuries to finance the US debt, [are] not changing anytime soon,” said Libby Cantrill, head of public policy at Pimco.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Treasury Secretary Bessent’s appointment triggered a long-bond rally, narrowing the 30-year swap spread to its tightest level since February and compressing the 10-year swap spread by 3 bps to ~38 bps.
The 10-year U.S. yield remains elevated at 4.66%, just 9 bps below last week’s 4.75% peak, as Bessent’s appointment has only dented a years-long structural rise in long-term borrowing costs.
Pimco’s Libby Cantrill argues that long-end Treasury buybacks may technically suppress yields but leave the underlying driver — structural U.S. budget deficits requiring sustained heavy issuance — entirely unchanged.

America’s Risky Debt: What Markets See That Policymakers Don’t

Hanno Lustig Aspen Economic Strategy Group

Date Posted:: August 21, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Lustig shows the premium investors pay for Treasurys over substitutes such as AAA corporate debt and G10 sovereign debt has compressed post 2020. “Investors are now indifferent between [Treasurys] and close substitutes.”

The top panel uses the credit risk-adjusted AAA-Treasury spread. We use the CDS to strip the default-risk compensation out of the corporate-bond yield. What remains is a clean estimate of the safety premium that investors pay for Treasurys over otherwise-equivalent corporate exposure. Post-2022, it has compressed toward zero, and at points, has reversed. The bottom panel uses the Treasury Premium, defined as the difference between the synthetic-dollar foreign sovereign yield and the US Treasury yield at the same maturity. The synthetic-dollar foreign yield is constructed by swapping the coupon payments on foreign G10 sovereign bonds into dollars using the foreign-exchange forward market. This eliminates currency risk over the life of the bond, so the resulting dollar cash-flow stream is directly comparable to a US Treasury yield of the same maturity. At longer maturities, global investors now seem to prefer the safety of foreign G10 bonds.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The U.S. Treasury safety premium has compressed to near zero post-2022 and at points reversed, signaling that markets no longer treat Treasurys as unambiguously superior to credit-risk-adjusted corporate equivalents.
At longer maturities, global investors now price dollar-hedged G10 sovereign bonds above U.S. Treasurys, marking a structural erosion of the safe-haven premium that has historically anchored U.S. borrowing costs.

Yen Intervention = US Self-Preservation

Katie Martin Financial Times

Date Posted:: August 4, 2026
Is Database:: Database

To shield Treasuries from selloffs and higher yields, the US prefers its own yen support tools: ESF yen purchases as a signal and the Fed’s rarely used FIMA facility, lending Japan dollars against Treasuries to forestall direct Japanese Treasury sales.

Japan has two traditional routes to push up the battered yen. One is a massive rise in Japanese interest rates, and the other is massive sales of dollars — i.e., of US Treasuries. Neither would be good news for the US. Japanese yields are already seriously elevated by historical standards — 2.8% on the 10-year and 4% on the 30-year. The US is just not in a position to lose a big buyer of Treasuries when its own 10-year yield is tickling 4.7% and the 30-year is well over 5. And it certainly can’t tolerate a big seller of Treasuries, in the form of Japanese authorities selling dollars, hoping to prop up the yen. (Japan’s Treasury holdings already lead the world, at $1tn, or just below 4% of the total outstanding.) Much better to stand behind Japan and hope to scare off the yen sellers. Recent use has been made of the Exchange Rate Stabilization Fund [ESF] to signal that intent. Bessent has also said he will encourage the Fed to bump up Fima, the Fed’s international repo facility, in the coming months. This tool has rarely been wheeled out since it was established during the 2020 Covid shock. Its current $60bn per counterparty, per day limit has been reached just once. The fact that US authorities approved the use of this facility suggests the US side sees potential risk that fx intervention could push up US Treasury yields.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Japan’s $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings—the world’s largest foreign position at ~4% of total outstanding—give the U.S. a direct strategic interest in defending the yen, as Japanese dollar sales would intensify pressure on a 10-year yield already at 4.7%.
U.S. participation in Friday’s joint yen intervention, executed via euros from the Exchange Stabilization Fund, delivers a credible “back off” warning to yen sellers without triggering the Treasury market disruption that direct dollar sales would cause.
Japan’s 10-year yield at 2.8% and 30-year at 4%—elevated by historical standards—redirect domestic capital away from U.S. Treasuries, compounding Washington’s vulnerability at a moment when its 30-year yield exceeds 5%.

Properly accounting for imports of gold and chips, China’s current account surplus is ~6% of GDP. Using the IMF formulation, Setser argues this implies the renminbi is undervalued btw 30–35%.

Is China's currency undervalued enough to distort global trade?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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A Bloomberg analysis finds only 41% of global investors’ foreign-currency exposure is hedged in six major markets, the lowest level since 2015. Foreigners now hold almost $40T of American assets.

Are unhedged dollar positions setting up a market crash?

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Lustig presents a decomposition that attributes 156bp of the 254bp rise in the 10-year yield since March 2022 to an increase in the term premium, which he associates with the additional duration risk borne by investors as the Fed reduced its balance sheet.

Is the Treasury market pricing structural change or temporary Fed policy reversal?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Brooks argues, “The AI buildout isn’t why government bond yields are rising,” noting the US non-financial corporate sector was a net saver as of Q1 2026, which suggests government deficit spending is driving up long yields.

Does massive technology investment shift corporations from savers to borrowers?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Modest compression of the spreads between Treasury yields and synthetic “swap” securities (~5.5bp for the 30 year and ~3bp for the 10 year) suggest Bessent’s Treasury purchase program has had a degree of success at lowering long-term government yields.

Are investors returning to long-term government bonds?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Lustig shows the premium investors pay for Treasurys over substitutes such as AAA corporate debt and G10 sovereign debt has compressed post 2020. “Investors are now indifferent between [Treasurys] and close substitutes.”

Are global investors losing confidence in US government debt safety?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

To shield Treasuries from selloffs and higher yields, the US prefers its own yen support tools: ESF yen purchases as a signal and the Fed’s rarely used FIMA facility, lending Japan dollars against Treasuries to forestall direct Japanese Treasury sales.

Does the U.S. need a stronger yen to protect its debt markets?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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