Edward Conard

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  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
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  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
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Numeracy Score, Survey Of Adult Skills

OECD Staff Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Date Posted:
August 20, 2020
Is Database:
Database

The U.S. has a disproportionate number of low-skilled workers compared to high-skilled ones, 3 to 4 times greater than in Northern Europe.

The U.S. has a disproportionate number of low-skilled workers compared to high-skilled ones, 3 to 4 times greater than in...
In the U.S., only 8.5% of adults achieve the highest numeracy levels, while 28.7% fall into the lowest skill category, resulting in a ratio of 0.3 high-scoring adults per low-scoring adult. This contrasts sharply with Germany, where 14.2% score at the highest levels and 18.4% at the lowest, yielding nearly three times more high-scoring adults per low-scoring adult than the U.S. Scandinavia surpasses this with over four times as many, and Japan leads with nearly eight times as many. These disparities highlight America's disproportionate number of low-skilled workers compared to high-skilled ones, which is 3 to 4 times greater than in Northern Europe. Consequently, the U.S. has half the talent per capita compared to other leading high-wage economies, necessitating twice the supervisory resources to manage its workforce effectively.

“…8.5 percent of adult Americans score at the highest numeracy levels, and 28.7 percent score at the lowest skill levels. America has 0.3 high-scoring adults for every low-scoring adult. In contrast, 14.2 percent of German adults score at the highest levels and 18.4 percent score at the lowest.Astonishingly, Germany has nearly three times more high-scoring adults per low-scoring adult than the United States. Scandinavia has more than four times as many. Japan has nearly eight times as many America has half as much talent per capita as the other most successful high-wage economies and twice the supervisory needs….”

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, “Numeracy Score, Survey Of Adult Skills,” PIAAC Data, Accessed August 20, 2020, https://www.oecd.org/skills/piaac/

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Previous articleAugust 20, 2020Household Disposable Income: Gross Adjusted US Dollars/Capita, 2019 Or Latest AvailableAmerica’s middle-class incomes are 28% larger than those in Germany and 65-70% larger than in Southern Europe.Next articleAugust 20, 2020GDP Per Hour Worked, USD Constant PricesU.S. productivity, measured by GDP/hour worked, has grown 50% faster than Northern Europe since 2000.
Showing 83 database articles primarily about Test Scores

PISA 2025 Results (Volume I)

AI Summary. Global student performance in mathematics and reading has declined sharply since 2018, with reading scores falling 14 points and math scores falling 9 points between 2022 and 2025 alone.

OECD Staff Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Date Posted:
September 8, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Mean OECD math and reading scores fell roughly 25 PISA points—about a year of schooling—between 2018 and 2025, alongside reduced motivation and engagement and increased carelessness, exemplified by a near-doubling of “hasty readers.”

Are global education systems failing to teach core skills?

Core argument: The share of “hasty readers” — students giving fast, incorrect responses — nearly doubled from 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025, with math showing a parallel rise between 2022 and 2025, signaling deteriorating effort and engagement rather than pure skill loss.

In math, performance remained close to the 2003 level up to 2018, then dropped sharply btw 2018 and 2025. Mean performance dropped by 9 score points in mathematics and about 14 score points in reading btw 2022 and 2025. Over the 2018-2025 period, the largest drops [in reading] were among the most advantaged 25% of socio-economic status, and the socio-economic gap with the most disadvantaged students reduced somewhat, by 11 points, on average across 35 OECD countries. In mathematics, the share of disadvantaged students scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased in previous cycles and remained high in 2025; among advantaged students, the share scoring below proficiency Level 2 increased, reaching 18% in 2025, about 4pp. Students’ reports of their motivation for learning and engagement with school also declined between 2022 and 2025. The proportion of “hasty readers” – those who gave fast and incorrect responses – increased by about five percentage points, on average, from almost 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025. Analyses for math, also show an increase in the proportion of hasty responses between 2022 and 2025.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The share of “hasty readers” — students giving fast, incorrect responses — nearly doubled from 7% in 2018 to 11% in 2025, with math showing a parallel rise between 2022 and 2025, signaling deteriorating effort and engagement rather than pure skill loss.
  2. Among the most advantaged quartile of students, the share scoring below math proficiency Level 2 reached 18% in 2025, up approximately 4 percentage points, indicating that academic decline is no longer concentrated among disadvantaged populations.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
  • Are China’s Students Really Number One? A Statistical Riddle — The sharp rise in China’s PISA scores btw 2015 and 2018 coincided with “peculiar changes to the roster of provinces representing China,” further…
  • Have Humans Passed Peak Brain Power? — Citing PISA results @jburnmurdoch notes the share of adults in high income countries who can not “use mathematical reasoning when reviewing and…
  • Test Scores
  • Workforce
    • Education
      • K-12

Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at a Public University System

Theodore Joyce, Mina Afrouzi Khosroshahi, Sarah Truelsch, Kerstin Gentsch, et al. National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 25, 2026
Is Database:
Database
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Important

SAT scores are known to be better predictors of college and post-college success in Ivy+ universities. By contrast, this study of a public urban university system with 11 colleges shows that for the 2010–2019 cohort, high school GPA strongly dominates SAT scores.

Many of the country’s most selective colleges have returned to requiring the SAT, based on evidence that the test not only predicts student success, but facilitates the identification of qualified applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds. The results from our study of a large public urban university system find the opposite: high school grades are a vastly superior predictor of student academic success than is the SAT. We undertake an exercise with binned scatter plots of six year graduation rates against HSGPA [High School Grade Point Average] stratified by URM [under-represented minority] and whether the student received the maximum Pell grant (Figures 1a and 1b). [Note that SAT is included in the regression so the monotonic linear effect of GDP remains after controlling for SAT score]. We find that URM are less likely to graduate in six years at every level of HSGPA than are non-URM. In contrast, we find no similar difference when we stratify the plot by whether the student received the max Pell grant or not, a strong proxy for a low-income household (Figure 1b). The clear takeaway from the analysis of the 2010-2019 cohorts is the dominance of HSGPA in predicting student academic success. The results are in direct contrast to recent high-profile analyses of students from Ivy-plus colleges that demonstrated the superiority of SAT over HSGPA in predicting not only first-year academic outcomes, but post-college success as well.

Related Articles:

  • Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges — .@OppInsights finds that the “Ivy-Plus” (Ivy League, plus UChicago, Duke, MIT, Stanford) admit students from the highest income families scoring in the top 1%…
  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — A sharp and steady decline in the GCT scores of Marine Corps officers occurred btw 1980 and 2014. 96% of this is explained by the widening (and weakening) of…
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
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      • College

The Lost Generation

Jacob Savage Compact Magazine
Date Posted:
December 17, 2025
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and tech during the 2010s is a key driver of contemporary political dynamics among young men.

Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and...
In 2011, the year I moved to Los Angeles, white men were 48% of lower-level TV writers; by 2024, they accounted for just 11.9%. The Atlantic’s editorial staff went from 53% male and 89% white in 2013 to 36% male and 66% white in 2024. White men fell from 39% of tenure-track positions in the humanities at Harvard in 2014 to 18% in 2023. The white men shut out of the culture industries didn’t surge into other high-status fields. At Google, white men went from nearly half the workforce in 2014 to less than a third by 2024—a 34% decline. In 2014, at Amazon, entry-level “professionals”—college graduates just starting out—were 42.3% white male. These were the employees who, if they’d advanced normally over the next decade, would be the mid-level managers of today. But mid-level Amazon managers fell from 55.8% white male in 2014 to just 33.8% in 2024—a decline of nearly 40%. In retrospect, 2014 was the hinge, the year DEI became institutionalized across American life.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — A sharp and steady decline in the GCT scores of Marine Corps officers occurred btw 1980 and 2014. 96% of this is explained by the widening (and weakening) of…
  • US PISA Results By Subpopulation — Breaking down the 2022 PISA math results by subpopulation, @cremieuxrecueil finds that US Asians and whites topped the charts, scoring on par with top…
  • Test Scores
  • Politics
  • Workforce

Twelfth-Grade Math and Reading Scores in U.S. Hit New Low

Matt Barnum Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
September 9, 2025
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

New National Assessment of Educational Progress results show the share of American high school seniors who scored basic or above on national tests fell to the lowest level on record: 68% in reading and 55% in math.

American high-school seniors’ scores on major math and reading tests fell to their lowest levels on record, according to results released Tuesday by the U.S. Education Department. Twelfth-graders’ average math score was the worst since the current test began in 2005, and reading was below any point since that assessment started in 1992. The share of 12th-graders who were proficient slid by 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024—to 35% in reading and 22% in math. The results are from tests that are part of the National Assessment of Educational Progress, administered to tens of thousands of students in early 2024. In reading, two-thirds of seniors could determine the purpose of a persuasive essay, but only one in five was able to draw a conclusion from such an essay, supported by the text. In math, 60% of students deduced the population of an area using information on size and density, while just under half correctly turned a real-world scenario into an algebraic expression.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
  • Many Children Left Behind: The 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress Results Indicate a Five-Alarm Fire — The 2024 NAEP results show that 40% of fourth graders are “below basic” in reading proficiency, relative to 30% who are “at or above proficient.” 39% of…
  • Have Humans Passed Peak Brain Power? — Citing PISA results @jburnmurdoch notes the share of adults in high income countries who can not “use mathematical reasoning when reviewing and…
  • Test Scores
  • Workforce
    • Education
      • K-12

Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges

John Friedman, Bruce Sacerdote, Douglas Staiger, and Michele Tine National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 18, 2025
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Students at Ivy-plus colleges whose SAT/ACT scores were at the 99th percentile had 1st-year college GPAs 0.43 points higher than those who had scored at the 75th percentile, while high school GPAs had little predictive power. @John_N_Friedman

We analyze admissions and transcript records for students at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges to study the relationship between standardized (SAT/ACT) test scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades. Standardized test scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope four times greater than that from high school GPA, all conditional on students’ race, gender, and socioeconomic status. Standardized test scores do not underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds. Collectively these results suggest that standardized test scores provide important information to measure applicants’ academic preparation that is not available elsewhere in the application file. While some of the raw correlation between these variables relates to students’ demographic characteristics, much remains even when controlling for these variables. In contrast, high school GPA does not predict academic performance nearly as well. We also find no evidence of bias against students from less advantaged backgrounds, as students from such backgrounds do not outperform (and in some cases underperform) other students with the same test score

Related Articles:

  • Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges — .@OppInsights finds that the “Ivy-Plus” (Ivy League, plus UChicago, Duke, MIT, Stanford) admit students from the highest income families scoring in the top 1%…
  • Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges — Students at Ivy-Plus colleges with 99th percentile SAT/ACT scores earned a first-year college GPA 0.43 points higher than students who scored at the 75th…
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
  • Test Scores
  • Workforce
    • Education

Can Gifted Education Help Higher-Ability Boys from Disadvantaged Backgrounds?

David Card, Eric Chyn, and Laura Giuliano National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
February 21, 2025
Is Database:
Database

Card et al, find that the 25-30 percentage point college enrollment gap between disadvantaged boys and girls with IQs of ~116 closed among students who qualified for a “gifted” program. @EricChyn

We study the effects of being identified as gifted in elementary school on subsequent test scores, courses and grades, and on the probability of entering college, for disadvantaged children in a large urban school district (“the District”). The law specifies a threshold of 130 [IQ] points for non-disadvantaged students, but allows districts to select a lower “Plan B” threshold [116 pts] for FRL and ELL students. The strict IQ threshold for gifted status provides the basis for a regression discontinuity (RD) evaluation of the impacts of being identified as gifted. Figure 6 illustrates how these impacts affect gender gaps by presenting the estimated mean potential outcomes for the complying boys (left side) and complying girls (right side) using an 8-point bandwidth. The estimated college entry rate for male compliers who narrowly miss the gifted threshold is 46%; the 28 ppt treatment effect of passing the threshold raises this to 74%, which equals the rate for female compliers who narrowly miss the threshold - being identified as gifted raises the college entry rate of marginally eligible boys to the same rate as girls.

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
  • Skills and Human Capital in the Labor Market — .@ProfDavidDeming and @m_silliman find “the economic return to social skills in the US more than doubled” between the 1980s and the 2000s, and argue for a…
  • Multidimensional Human Capital and the Wage Structure — The return to cognitive skills has declined since 2000 and there has been rising demand for “social skills.” “Jobs with the most employment and earnings growth…
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  • Workforce
    • Education
      • K-12
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