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US Ability to Defeat China in Taiwan Threatened, Top Indo-Pacific Commander Warns

Demetri Sevastopulo Financial Times

Date Posted:: May 5, 2025

The top American commander in the Indo-Pacific, Samuel Paparo, said “The United States will prevail in [a war over Taiwan] as it stands now.” However, he noted, “our trajectory on…really every force element that is salient is a bad trajectory.”

The top American military commander in the Indo-Pacific said “The United States will prevail in the conflict as it stands now, with the force that we have right now,” Admiral Samuel Paparo told the McCain Institute’s annual Sedona Forum in Arizona on Friday. Speaking one year after taking the helm at Indo-Pacific command, Paparo stressed that the US military had key advantages over China in undersea capabilities, as well as superior capabilities in space and weapons that counter space assets. But he warned that China was building weapons systems, including warships, at a much faster pace than the US. “Our trajectory on…really every force element that is salient is a bad trajectory,” Paparo said. “The rates of change on the depth and breadth of their exercises is the one non-linear effect that I’ve seen in the last year that wakes me up at night or keeps me up at night,” he said.

Defense Spending: Macroeconomic Consequences and Trade-Offs

Hippolyte Balima, Jared Bebee, Colombe Ladreit, Andresa Lagerborg, et al. International Monetary Fund

Date Posted:: April 8, 2026
Is Database:: Database

An IMF report notes defense spending booms are associated with an increase in TFP “over longer horizons, consistent with evidence showing that the R&D component of defense spending can boost innovation and crowd in private R&D spending.”

Defense spending booms [periods when the two-year moving average of defense spending increases 1pp of GDP] in peacetime are followed by a sizable increase in real GDP and by a short-lived rise in inflation. Consistent with a large share of the stimulus being allocated to personnel and operating expenses, government consumption rises by about 9% within three years. Total investment shows a comparable positive response, reflecting both higher public investment in defense equipment and infrastructure and increased private investment, particularly in defense-related industries. Turning to the external sector, stimulus-driven demand leads to wider external imbalances, as both the current account and trade balance deteriorate. Imports accelerate—reflecting leakages from defense spending and stronger demand for foreign goods—while exports remain broadly unchanged. Defense spending booms are associated with a subsequent increase in the stock of capital, in line with the documented boost to investment, and an increase in total factor productivity, which may be explained by changes in capacity utilization and learning by necessity, as firms adapt to surging demand by improving productivity when facing capacity constraints. Total factor productivity [loses] its statistical significance once capacity utilization is controlled for. However, defense spending booms are followed by greater total factor productivity over longer horizons, consistent with evidence showing that the R&D component of defense spending can boost innovation and crowd in private R&D spending.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Defense stimulus widens trade deficits as imports surge while exports remain flat, creating external imbalances despite stronger overall demand.
Long-term productivity gains from defense spending reflect innovation spillovers and private sector research development crowding, beyond short-term capacity utilization effects.

The Cold War and the U.S. Labor Market

Ilyana Kuziemko, Donato Onorato and Suresh Naidu National Bureau of Economic Research

Date Posted:: March 31, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Defense spending played a major role in sustaining tight labor markets for low-skill workers following the Second World War. Drops in procurement spending between the 1950s and the 1990s explain between 18 and 30% of the decline in manufacturing employment.

We have shown that in the decades immediately following World War II, the Cold War was a major factor sustaining tight labor markets. On the labor demand side, military procurement increased demand for manufacturing workers and put downward pressure on the share of income flowing to the richest households. We can explain roughly between 18 and 30% of the decline in manufacturing and just under ten percent of the rise in top-ten inequality by the 1950s to 1990s decline in procurement spending. We thus conclude that Cold War procurement—while under-studied in the modern, quantitative economics literature on inequality—played a major role in sustaining tight labor markets for low-skill workers in the decades immediately after World War II and creating political coalitions in support of hawkish foreign policy and military expenditure. Figure 8 panel (a) shows that manufacturing employment is highly sensitive to defense spending, consistent with our state-year evidence. As is well known, manufacturing booms during World War II, but, less discussed, plummets in the years between World War II and Korea. After bouncing back during Korea, it slowly declines alongside the declining defense share of GDP until both series experience an uptick during Vietnam. Overall, the relationship remains highly significant even after taking out a linear time trend and dropping the World War II period.

The First 36 Hours of War Consumed Over 3,000 U.S.-Israeli Munitions

Macdonald Amoah, Morgan Bazilian, and Jahara Matisek Foreign Policy

Date Posted:: March 6, 2026
Is Database:: Database

A Colorado School of Mines analysis of the munitions used in the first 36 hours of the war estimates the “mineral bill” and highlights the current and target timelines to replenish these systems, noting critical minerals “cannot be surged.”

Beyond the sheer volume of munitions, the loss of high-value assets introduces another layer of complexity. The destruction of two advanced U.S. radars, the AN/FPS-132 in Qatar and the AN/TPS-59 in Bahrain, highlights a problem where the total weight of the “mineral bill” is less of a concern than the extreme fragility of the supply chain and the extensive timelines for replacement. Per our analysis, for the AN/FPS-132, it will take five to eight years for Raytheon to build a new radar at a cost of $1.1 billion. Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin will require at least 12 to 24 months and an estimated $50 million to $75 million to replace the AN/TPS-59, based on the original Bahrain Foreign Military Sales contract adjusted for inflation. The biggest issue for the defense industrial base will be sourcing the 77.3 kilograms of gallium needed for both systems, a material for which China controls 98% of the global supply. This is not to mention the 30,610 kilograms of copper that will also be needed, a commodity facing surging demand from the technology sector.

How Russia’s Fatalities Compare With Ukraine’s

Economist Staff The Economist

Date Posted:: February 25, 2026
Is Database:: Database

The Economist estimates one in 25 Russian men btw the ages of 18 and 49 have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since 2022. CSIS estimates Ukrainian casualties at one in 16. Russian losses are escalating; today it is “losing more men than it can recruit.”

Our model suggests that Russian casualties are now between 1.1m and 1.4m, of whom 230,000-430,000 are dead. That would mean one in 25 Russian men between the ages of 18 and 49 may have been killed or severely wounded since the start of the full-scale war. There are too few reliable estimates of Ukrainian deaths to construct a similar meta-estimate. One single estimate, published on January 27th by CSIS, a think-tank, put total Ukrainian casualties at 600,000 as of December, including 100,000-140,000 dead. Though much lower than Russia’s casualties in absolute terms, as a share of its population it is higher—equivalent to about one in 16 Ukrainian men aged 18-49 before the war. These figures exclude civilian deaths, for which reliable data are scarcer still. Ukrainian losses appeared heaviest early in the war: American officials estimated that 70,000 soldiers had already been killed by August 2023. Russia’s campaign, by contrast, has only grown bloodier. Some estimates suggest that it is now losing roughly 1,000 soldiers a day. Our modelling shows that as many may have died in the past year as in the first three combined. It is losing more men than it can recruit.

Drones Are Key to Winning Wars Now. The U.S. Makes Hardly Any.

Farah Stockman New York Times

Date Posted:: July 14, 2025
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

China’s DJI can manufacture millions of drones a year; about 500 American drone manufacturers are collectively building fewer than 100,000 drones annually.

DJI accounts for about 70% of all commercial drones sold globally for hobby and industrial use, such as aerial photography, package delivery and weather research. The company declined to share market data, but industry experts estimate that DJI’s output far exceeds that of any other drone manufacturer. “No one even comes close,” said Bobby Sakaki, chief executive of UAS NEXUS, a drone industry consultant. “DJI can make millions of drones per year. That is a hundred times more than anybody in the United States can make.” About 500 companies manufacture drones in the United States, producing fewer than 100,000 a year, according to Ryan Carver, communications manager for the Association for Uncrewed Vehicle Systems International, a nonprofit organization of industry professionals.

Germany Backs Donald Trump Goal For Nato To Spend 5% Of GDP On Defence

Anne-Sylvaine Chassany and John Paul Rathbone Financial Times

Date Posted:: May 15, 2025
Is Database:: Database

Germany will aim to raise spending on defense to 5% of GDP by 2032 by increasing “hard military spending” from this year’s 2% to 3.5%, while adding 1.5% of GDP of “related spending, including infrastructure and cyber security.”

Speaking at a meeting in Antalya on Thursday, German foreign minister Johann Wadephul said Berlin was “following” Trump on his demand that Nato allies reach a 5% goal. Currently the alliance has a 2% spending target. Wadephul also signalled that the way the country would meet the target would be by embracing a proposal by Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte. The Dutchman has called for Nato members to reach 3.5% of GDP on “hard military spending” by 2032, to which he has suggested adding 1.5% of GDP on “related spending” including infrastructure and cyber security.

The top American commander in the Indo-Pacific, Samuel Paparo, said “The United States will prevail in [a war over Taiwan] as it stands now.” However, he noted, “our trajectory on…really every force element that is salient is a bad trajectory.”

Related Articles:

An IMF report notes defense spending booms are associated with an increase in TFP “over longer horizons, consistent with evidence showing that the R&D component of defense spending can boost innovation and crowd in private R&D spending.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Defense spending played a major role in sustaining tight labor markets for low-skill workers following the Second World War. Drops in procurement spending between the 1950s and the 1990s explain between 18 and 30% of the decline in manufacturing employment.

Related Articles:

A Colorado School of Mines analysis of the munitions used in the first 36 hours of the war estimates the “mineral bill” and highlights the current and target timelines to replenish these systems, noting critical minerals “cannot be surged.”

Related Articles:

The Economist estimates one in 25 Russian men btw the ages of 18 and 49 have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since 2022. CSIS estimates Ukrainian casualties at one in 16. Russian losses are escalating; today it is “losing more men than it can recruit.”

Related Articles:

China’s DJI can manufacture millions of drones a year; about 500 American drone manufacturers are collectively building fewer than 100,000 drones annually.

Related Articles:

Germany will aim to raise spending on defense to 5% of GDP by 2032 by increasing “hard military spending” from this year’s 2% to 3.5%, while adding 1.5% of GDP of “related spending, including infrastructure and cyber security.”

Related Articles:

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI