Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. The authors find scant evidence of lingering pandemic effects on macroeconomic dynamics or on aggregate and sectoral growth, with the COVID shock and its anomalous dynamics largely gone. Estimated trend growth rates for consumption and employment in periods with a 4.1% unemployment rate are highly correlated, while industrial production reflects a long-term growth slowdown.

James Stock and Mark Watson Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
Date Posted:

The short, sharp contraction in 2020 resulted in lasting increases in work-from-home and the government debt, but Stock and Watson “find scant evidence of any long COVID effects at the level of macro dynamics or aggregate, and even sectoral, growth.”

Have pandemic shocks left lasting effects on economic growth trends?

Core argument: The authors find scant evidence of lingering COVID effects on macro dynamics or aggregate and sectoral growth, concluding the COVID shock and anomalous COVID dynamics largely disappeared by late 2022.

The COVID shock and anomalous COVID dynamics largely disappeared by late 2022. It appears that macrodynamics have returned to normal and that the structural shifts wrought by the pandemic have had limited effects on the underlying economic trends of key indicators, despite notable changes like the prevalence of remote work and the large increase in the debt-GDP ratio. Figure 16 provides the comparison of estimates of the instantaneous trend growth rate for 2019:IV and 2029:III, two quarters during which the unemployment rate was 4.1%, at or near for multiple sectors of consumption, employment, and industrial production. For consumption and employment, the smoothed values in 2024:III v. 2019:IV are highly correlated and fall along the 45° line, consistent with there being no substantial lingering changes. For industrial production, the correlation is also high but with a slope less than 1, reflecting the long-term slowdown of industrial production growth. In short, we find scant evidence of any long COVID effects at the level of macro dynamics or aggregate, and even sectoral, growth.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The authors find scant evidence of lingering COVID effects on macro dynamics or aggregate and sectoral growth, concluding the COVID shock and anomalous COVID dynamics largely disappeared by late 2022.
  2. Comparing two quarters with 4.1% unemployment, consumption and employment trend growth estimates in 2024:III versus 2019:IV are highly correlated and fall along the 45° line, consistent with no substantial lingering changes.
  3. Industrial production trend growth is also highly correlated across the two comparison quarters but with a slope below 1, which the authors attribute to the long-term slowdown of industrial production growth.

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  • The New Geography of Labor Markets — Matched employer-employee data show the mean distance from an American worker's home to their employer's worksite rose from 15 miles to 26 miles, with 12% of recent hires living at least 50 miles away, triple the earlier share. Separation and hiring rates are higher for distant employees.
  • The Curious Surge of Productivity in U.S. Restaurants — After roughly 30 years of flat productivity, real labor productivity at U.S. restaurants rose over 15% during the COVID pandemic and has persisted. The authors find this gain is strongly correlated with shorter customer dwell times, and the aggregate decline in dwell time can explain almost all of the increase.
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