Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
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It Isn’t Just Tom Brady—More People Are Coming Out of Retirement

Kathryn Dill Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
April 13, 2022
Is Database:
Database

The share of retired workers re-entering the workforce rose to 3% in February, the highest since March 2020, as many retirees return to work due to financial concerns and labor shortages.

The share of retired workers re-entering the workforce rose to 3% in February, the highest since March 2020, as many retirees return to work due to financial concerns and labor shortages. Approximately 2.6m Americans retired earlier than expected between February 2020 and October 2021, driven by rising asset values and Covid-19 worries. However, recent stock-market volatility and the availability of remote work options are enticing these early retirees back. Labor economists suggest that the need to shore up finances and the lure of new career challenges are key factors driving this trend. As companies seek experienced workers, many retirees find roles with more flexibility and less travel, aligning with their lifestyle preferences. This shift indicates a potential easing of labor shortages as more retirees rejoin the workforce, contributing their skills and experience to the economy.

roughly 2.6 million Americans who retired earlier than expected between February 2020 and October 2021, according to estimates from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis senior economist Miguel Faria-e-Castro....Now many are returning to work at rates not seen since 2020....In February, the share of retired workers re-entering the workforce climbed to around 3% of total retirees, its highest level since early March 2020, according to an Indeed analysis of federal labor data.

Kathryn Dill, "It Isn’t Just Tom Brady—More People Are Coming Out of Retirement,"Wall Street Journal, March 30, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/it-isnt-just-tom-bradymore-people-are-coming-out-of-retirement-11648596306

It Isn’t Just Tom Brady—More People Are Coming Out of Retirement

Millions of U.S. workers retired during the pandemic. Now many are returning to work at rates not seen since 2020.

Tom Brady, it turns out, has good company in reconsidering hanging up the proverbial cleats: In February, the share of retired workers re-entering the workforce climbed to around 3% of total retirees, its highest level since early March 2020, according to an Indeed analysis of federal labor data.

It Isn’t Just Tom Brady—More People Are Coming Out of Retirement: Extended Excerpt Image 1


Many are people under the official retirement age who, spurred by rising asset values or Covid-19 worries, left the workforce ahead of schedule, labor economists say.

Some now are returning to work to shore up their finances. Others have been presented with another career challenge—much like former Starbucks Corp. CEO Howard Schultz, who will temporarily take the reins of the coffee chain again next week. Labor shortages, a recent stock-market rout, plus the widespread availability of remote-work options, could lure more early retirees back to the job market in the coming months, too, they predict.

When Steve Katelman retired from Omnicom Media Group in February 2021, many of his colleagues bet it wouldn’t be for long. They were right—his retirement lasted barely a year.

“I’m the world’s worst retired person,” says the 57-year-old Mr. Katelman, who, after months of feeling bored and isolated, starts a new job in April leading strategic partnerships at a software maker.

He is among the roughly 2.6 million Americans who retired earlier than expected between February 2020 and October 2021, according to estimates from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis senior economist Miguel Faria-e-Castro. But Mr. Katelman says he soon realized he wasn’t ready to give up a full-time career. The San Francisco executive had spent much of his career traveling the globe to meet with clients, something he found himself missing after quitting and moving to Omaha, Neb., to care for his aging mother.

So when a company he had been advising, a compliance-software company, asked whether he would come on board, he agreed—as long as he could keep Omaha as his home base.

“Wheeling and dealing was in my blood,” he says. “Not working, it felt wrong. I’m not a good golfer.”

Others now quitting early retirement realize they weren’t as financially prepared to live without a steady paycheck as they hoped.

With elderly parents, a new grandchild on the way and a blossoming woodworking business on the side, Marvin Pace retired in February 2020 at 55 from his job as a customer experience executive. He had hoped his savings would be enough to support him and his family into his later years, and at first, he relished his newfound freedom. But he worried his finances wouldn’t sustain his family’s standard of living over the long-term, and after 18 months, he reluctantly started to hunt for a new job.

It took him about six months of networking, applying and interviewing to land his next job—longer, he says, than he had expected to find a job he felt was the right fit.

He returned to work, in a similar role at an IT service management company, in February and says he has been pleasantly surprised: His co-workers value the experience he brings, he says, and he feels a sense of confidence from having left the workforce in his 50s and returning to a job he likes.

“I’m not looking to advance, but I want to make sure I have an impact in what I do,” says Mr. Pace, who lives in Texas and says he plans to work another five to seven years before retiring for good.

Others say the plans they made to remain active in retirement have morphed into a second career. John Broschak, 58, retired in February from his job in utility operations after the pandemic grounded him. He had been accustomed to crisscrossing Michigan to visit plants, inspect machinery and check in with staff and found remote work monotonous.

“All of a sudden, I’m staring at a screen using Zoom,” he says. “Any last joy in the work that I was doing got sucked out in the ensuing 18 months.”

To ease the transition to retirement, he opened a martial arts school franchise and began construction on a second home in Arizona. His new work has been so invigorating, he says, that he has also launched a consulting business, providing leadership coaching and technical consulting for the utilities industry. He now works essentially full-time, but with better balance, he says.

“I have so much more latitude,” said Mr. Broschak. “There’s a lot of things on the to-do list, but I control it now, rather than someone else controlling me.”

Many older workers who made early exits from the workforce after losing jobs or finding themselves unable to work in the early months of the pandemic have retired mostly because they haven’t been able to find suitable work since. Researchers say that is especially the case among those who did manual work, such as truck driving, hospitality or in cleaning services.

Some early retirees, though, are being courted by companies in need of workers with in-demand skills and experience. Many, like 57-year-old Patti Key of Durham, N.C., say they are finding work with more flexibility than they had before the pandemic.

She had retired in May 2020 from her position as head of global sales at the Ixia Solutions Group at Keysight Technologies, in part to quit a grueling travel schedule. Last spring, though, a former colleague asked if she would be interested in coming out of retirement to become chief revenue officer at a private-equity owned company attempting a turnaround.

The role didn’t require international travel and had a clear three-year timeline. Plus, she would earn what she had been paid previously, with financial incentives for success.

The opportunity seemed too good to pass up, she says.

“It’s just reiterated how important it is to have connectivity to people,” Ms. Key says of her brief retirement. “For me, I like being on a team.”

  • Business Cycle
  • GDP
    • Growth
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    • Unemployment/Participation
Previous articleApril 13, 2022The Supplemental Expenditure Poverty Measure: A New Method for Measuring PovertyA new poverty measure shows a higher rate than conventional methods, indicating 8m more Americans are considered poor.Next articleApril 13, 2022Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?US inflation outpacing other OECD countries by ~3pp as of end of 2021.
Showing 218 database articles primarily about Business Cycle

3% vs. 60%

AI Summary. Direct lending represents roughly 3% of total U.S. household and business debt, a fraction of the 60% share mortgages held at the peak of the housing bubble.

Torsten Sløk Apollo
Date Posted:
April 8, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Torsten Sløk notes the direct lending market is ~$2T or 3% of household and non-financial debt outstanding. To provide context, he shows that in 2006, on the eve of the crisis, mortgages accounted for ~60% of such debt.

Core argument: Direct lending represents a small but growing alternative to traditional bank financing for businesses and households.

The direct lending market is roughly $2 trillion, or about 3% of total debt outstanding for US households and businesses. By comparison, mortgages accounted for about 60% of total household and corporate debt at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Direct lending represents a small but growing alternative to traditional bank financing for businesses and households.
  2. The mortgage market’s dominance has shifted dramatically since the 2006 housing peak, reducing systemic risk concentration.
  3. Non-bank lenders now capture meaningful market share in credit provision across the economy.

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Top 10% of Earners Drive a Growing Share of US Consumer Spending

Jonnelle Marte Bloomberg
Date Posted:
September 17, 2025
Is Database:
Database

Mark Zandi finds Americans in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of consumer spending in Q2, the highest level since 1989.

Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending in the second quarter, up from 48.5% in the first quarter, reaching the highest level in data going back to 1989, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. In contrast, the bottom 80% of the income distribution, or consumers making less than roughly $175,000 a year, have seen their spending merely keep pace with inflation since the pandemic.

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  • GDP
  • Workforce
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Litigation Nation, Engineering Empire

Jonathon Sine Cogitations
Date Posted:
September 2, 2025
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Jonathon Sine argues China “is moving beyond its breakneck industrial prime, facing similar dilemmas to those America confronted in the 1960s and 70s.” The ratio of science/engineering to humanities undergraduate majors is 2:1 in both the PRC and US.

Dan Wang’s “big idea” [is] “China is an engineering state, building big at breakneck speed, in contrast to the United States’ lawyerly society, blocking everything it can, good and bad.” I re-group US college majors according to Chinese disciplines to allow for rough comparison. Surprisingly, the ratio of science/engineering to humanities/social sciences is 2:1, the same as in China (if one groups management with science/engineering, as I also do for China). As with China today, America’s breakneck building phase was decidedly winding down by the 1960s. Urbanization went from 40% in 1900 to 70% by 1960, and grew much more incrementally over the next 60 years to 85% by 2020. The country simply did not need to continue building dams, expressways, and energy production facilities at breakneck pace. It became much more a matter of maintaining and upgrading (which has not gone well, at least according to the American Society of Civil Engineers’ report card). The American [building/investment slowdown that started after the 1970s] may be more about structural economic shifts than lawyers.

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  • Business Cycle
  • GDP
    • Growth

How America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing The Rest Of The Economy

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:
August 19, 2025
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

As AI-related investment has risen since 2023, residential and nonresidential investment have declined or flatlined. This may suggest that a relatively rate-insensitive AI buildout is crowding out more interest-sensitive forms of investment.

Something like a sixth of the 2% rise in American real GDP over the past year has come from investments in computer and communications equipment, including chips, and data centres. Add in the grid upgrades to power AI models, plus the intellectual-property value of the software itself, and one estimate puts the boom’s contribution to real GDP growth at 40%. The trouble is that the very sector powering so much of America’s economic growth is squeezing the rest of its output. Housebuilders, for instance, cannot afford to be blithe about higher borrowing costs. Data centres have also constrained the rest of the economy by keeping energy prices high. Average American electricity bills have risen by 7% so far in 2025, at least in part due to the extra strain data centres have put on the grid. Real consumption has flatlined since December. Housebuilding has slumped, as has non-AI business investment.

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  • Business Cycle
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  • Productivity
    • Innovation/Research
    • Investment

Is it Over?

Joseph Wang Fed Guy Blog
Date Posted:
August 18, 2025
Is Database:
Database

Following tepid reactions to the release of GTP-5, Joe Wang observes, “It is looking more like companies are spending hundreds of billions on rapidly depreciating GPUs that produce a commoditized product that most clients only modestly benefit from.”

GPT-5 users widely expressed disappointment in the capabilities of the new release, which seemed in some ways a step back. This sentiment is reflected in benchmarks that show a modest improvement in capabilities since the significant improvement in version 4 released two years ago. In addition, the benchmarks suggest a broader convergence in the capabilities of AI models. Commentary suggests this could be due to inherent limitations in the LLM technology and exhaustion of new training data. AI is fascinating technology, but it may not justify the enormous sums spent in its pursuit. It is looking more like companies are spending hundreds of billions on rapidly depreciating GPUs that produce a commoditized product that most clients only modestly benefit from. The entire macro landscape would look very different without the support of the AI boom.

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  • Business Cycle
  • GDP
    • Financial Markets
  • Productivity
    • Innovation/Research
    • Investment

US Households and Firms Are in Great Shape

Torsten Sløk Apollo
Date Posted:
March 31, 2025
Is Database:
Database

​​Torsten Sløk notes that US household and banking sector debt has fallen to its lowest level in decades as a % of GDP, while corporate leverage has moved sideways. “The bottom line is that the private sector in the US is in incredibly good shape.”

Household sector leverage and banking sector leverage have declined significantly since 2008. Over the same period, federal government leverage has increased significantly, and corporate leverage has moved sideways. The bottom line is that the private sector in the US is in incredibly good shape.

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