Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Net migration into the rich world has surged, with annual inflows of 3.3m to America, 1.9m to Canada, 1.2m to Britain and 740,000 to Australia — record levels in each. While new arrivals boost total output, they appear to be dragging down output per person, which fell 2% in a year in Canada.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

The rich world is in the midst of an unprecedented migration boom, with foreign-born populations growing at 4%/year, double the 2010s rate. Lower-skilled immigrants are driving down GDP per capita in Australia, Britain, and Canada.

Does surging immigration raise total output while lowering output per person?

Core argument: Net migration to America reached 3.3m last year, almost four times typical 2010s levels, while Canada took in 1.9m immigrants, Britain 1.2m and Australia 740,000 — records in each country.

The rich world is in the midst of an unprecedented migration boom. Last year 3.3m more people moved to America than left, almost four times typical levels in the 2010s. Canada took in 1.9m immigrants. Britain welcomed 1.2m people and Australia 740,000. In each country the number was greater than ever before. For Australia and Canada net migration is more than double pre-covid levels. In Britain, the intake is 3.5x that of 2019. Although new arrivals are clearly boosting GDP, they appear to be dragging down GDP per person. GDP per person has fallen or failed to grow for four consecutive quarters in Australia and seven in Britain. In Canada, where the drop in the measure is most pronounced, output per person fell by 2% in 2023. This reflects a shift in the type of immigration. For instance, whereas before the Covid-19 pandemic immigrants to America were as likely to have a bachelor’s degree as their local-born peers, today’s newcomers are more likely to have trekked from poor parts of Latin America and lack the right to legally work. About 2.4m people entered America last year by illegally crossing the country’s southern border.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Net migration to America reached 3.3m last year, almost four times typical 2010s levels, while Canada took in 1.9m immigrants, Britain 1.2m and Australia 740,000 — records in each country.
  2. GDP per person has fallen or failed to grow for four consecutive quarters in Australia and seven in Britain, and Canadian output per person fell by 2% in 2023, even as new arrivals boost overall GDP.
  3. Immigrants to America were as likely as locally born peers to hold a bachelor's degree before the Covid-19 pandemic, whereas today's newcomers more often come from poor parts of Latin America and lack the right to work legally, with about 2.4m crossing the southern border illegally last year.

Related Articles:

  • Without Immigrants, US Working-Age Population Would Shrink — All net US employment growth since early 2020 has been among foreign-born workers, and without immigration the US working-age population would be shrinking — a pattern likely to persist for the rest of the decade. The jump in immigration appears to be enabling a soft landing that most economists had thought impossible.
  • The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054 — The Congressional Budget Office projects the US population will grow from 342mm in 2024 to 383mm in 2054, an average 0.4% a year — less than half the 0.9% pace of the prior five decades. Immigration accounts for about 70% of growth over the next decade and for all population growth beginning in 2040.
  • New Immigration Estimates Help Make Sense Of The Pace Of Employment — The Congressional Budget Office estimates net immigration was 3.3m in 2023, versus the 1m it had projected, implying faster population and labor force growth than currently reported. The authors estimate this raised real economic growth by about 0.1 percentage point and, by lifting both production and demand, added little price or wage pressure.
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