We find that the impact of inflation on consumer sentiment fades out with a decay rate of about 50% per year, with a 10% inflation shock reducing sentiment by 35 index points in the current year, 16 index points the following year, and 8 index points the year after. The estimates imply that current sentiment is being dragged down by 16 index points by the inflation we have experienced over the last 3 years, down 40 percent from the peak negative impact of 27 index points in June 2022. If inflation next year slows to 2.5%, the negative impact on consumer sentiment from inflation would decline by another 50% relative to the current value.
- Date Posted:
- December 5, 2023
South Korea’s nominee for finance minister compared challenges posed by the country’s aging demographics to the iceberg that sank the Titanic, calling for immediate steps to cope with the situation. “It’s already too late,” Choi Sang-mok told reporters on Tuesday. “A ship like the Titanic has no choice but to crash by the time it discovers a reef.” It would take 30 years at the earliest to see the benefits of efforts to raise the world’s lowest fertility rate, so South Korea should be patient and thoroughly prepare for the implications of current demographic trends, he said. A shrinking workforce is a major cause of Korea’s declining potential growth rate. The number of babies expected per woman fell to 0.78 last year, according to data released by the statistics office.