Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Workers age 55 and older have not reversed the decline in labor force participation that began with the COVID-19 pandemic, unlike other age groups, amounting to roughly 2m workers by some estimates. The shortfall is concentrated among those without a college degree, while college-educated older workers' participation returned to its pre-pandemic trend.

Brandon Miskanic, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Cindy Zhao Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

The pandemic-era excess retirement surge was concentrated among non-college workers over age 55. Relative to the pre-pandemic trend about 2mm workers are missing. @Petrosky_Nadeau

Have older workers returned to the labor force after the pandemic?

Core argument: Workers age 55 and older have yet to reverse the decline in labor force participation that occurred with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, in contrast to other age groups.

A strong labor market is usually an engine that pulls and keeps people in the labor market, growing the pool of available workers. These forces have played out over the past three years for many groups of people, with one notable exception: workers age 55 and older. In contrast to other age groups, workers age 55 and older have yet to reverse the decline in labor market participation that occurred with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. By some estimates, this represents about 2 million workers who otherwise would have been in the labor force in 2023 absent the global pandemic. The drop in labor force participation for individuals without a college degree is a break from what would have been expected following the pre-COVID trend. This contrasts with the experience for college-educated workers, whose rate of participation in the labor market in 2023 returned to its pre-pandemic trend.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Workers age 55 and older have yet to reverse the decline in labor force participation that occurred with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, in contrast to other age groups.
  2. By some estimates, about 2 million workers age 55 and older would have been in the labor force in 2023 absent the pandemic.
  3. Labor force participation among individuals without a college degree broke from its pre-COVID trend, while college-educated workers' participation returned to its pre-pandemic trend in 2023.

Related Articles:

  • Why Is Prime-Age Labor Force Participation So High? — Labor force participation among 25-to-54-year-olds rose after the pandemic shock, with women's rate exceeding its pre-pandemic peak while men's returned to its pre-pandemic level but stayed below its historical high. The authors find this participation rise can ease wage and price pressures in hot labor markets, but appears to have ended.
  • “The Great Retirement Boom”: The Pandemic-Era Surge in Retirements and Implications for Future Labor Force Participation — An increase in the retired share of the working-age population of nearly 1.5 percentage points above pre-pandemic levels—more than 3.5m additional retirees—accounts for essentially all of the shortfall in the labor force participation rate, while other causes of non-participation such as caregiving have receded.
  • Post-Pandemic Recovery for America’s Prime Age Labor Force: A Tale of Two Sexes — Prime-age women's labor force participation climbed about 5 points above its pre-pandemic level over a decade, while prime-age men's rose barely a point, only just regaining pre-pandemic levels. Despite economic expansion and labor shortages, work rates for prime-age American men are barely as high as at the trough of the severe Reagan-era recession.
Showing 96 database articles primarily about Unemployment/Participation