Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. A study of Louisiana's private school voucher program estimates statistically significant negative effects on student English and math achievement across most years and samples, with initial large negative impacts diminishing after the first year but persisting through the fourth. College enrollment rates for voucher students were statistically indistinguishable from the comparison group.

J. Wolf, Jonathan N. Mills, Yujie Sude, Heidi H. Erickson and Matthew L. Lee Louisiana Scholarship Program Evaluation Policy Brief School Choice Demonstration Project
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The Louisiana Scholarship Program (LSP) has shown statistically significant negative impacts on student achievement in ELA & math across most years & samples, including the fourth year.

Do private school vouchers lower student achievement and college enrollment?

Core argument: The Louisiana Scholarship Program produced statistically significant negative impacts on English Language Arts and math achievement across most years and samples, with large initial losses diminishing by Year 2 but remaining significant through Year 4.

The Louisiana Scholarship Program (LSP) has shown statistically significant negative impacts on student achievement in English Language Arts (ELA) and math across most years and samples, including the fourth year. Initial large negative impacts diminished by Year 2 but remained significant in Year 4. The effects varied based on test alignment with public school curricula, with less negative impacts when using the iLEAP test. African American students experienced less negative impacts compared to non-African American students. Students attending larger, higher-tuition schools with longer days saw more favorable outcomes. College enrollment rates for LSP participants were similar to the control group, with a 0.5 percentage point difference that was not statistically significant. Despite lower test scores, LSP students enrolled in college at comparable rates, suggesting private schools may teach skills not measured by state tests.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The Louisiana Scholarship Program produced statistically significant negative impacts on English Language Arts and math achievement across most years and samples, with large initial losses diminishing by Year 2 but remaining significant through Year 4.
  2. College enrollment for Louisiana Scholarship Program participants differed from the control group by 0.5 percentage points, a gap that was not statistically significant, suggesting private schools may teach skills state tests do not measure.
  3. Negative effects of the Louisiana Scholarship Program were less pronounced for African American students than non-African American students, less pronounced on the iLEAP test, and more favorable for students at larger, higher-tuition schools with longer days.

"....We determine the impact of LSP voucher use on student achievement by comparing students who received vouchers through randomized lotteries. The LSP was oversubscribed in the first year of the program and used a matching algorithm to allocate open seats in private schools to students. When LSP applicants exceeded the number of seats available in a given school, the program awarded voucher placements to that specific school by lottery. Our analysis focuses on this subset of eligible applicants whose voucher receipt was determined randomly so that any differences in outcomes between LSP awardees and non-awardees can be attributed to the program....We examine how the LSP effects vary over time for two samples of students: a sample restricted to students with baseline test scores (BA) and a larger sample that is not limited to students with baseline test scores (NBA). Our prior research indicates large negative impacts on ELA and math in the first year of participation that appear to diminish somewhat by Year 2 and are not statistically significant by Year 3. Figures 1 and 2 present regression estimates for ELA and math LSP effects for Years 1 through 4 for consistent samples of students in the study. Figure 1 presents results for students in the BA Sample and Figure 2 focuses on students in the larger and broader NBA Sample..... Overall, participating in the LSP had a statistically significant negative impact on student English Language Arts (ELA) and math scores across most years of the evaluation, including the fourth year, and across most samples of students studied.....The achievement impacts of the LSP varied significantly based on the specific criterion-referenced test used and the accountability stakes attached to it. The negative test score impacts of the LSP were half as large in Year 1 when the test taken was the iLEAP, which is less aligned to the public school curriculum, than when it was the LEAP, which is more aligned. The impacts were not statistically significant in the third year of the evaluation, when no accountability stakes were assigned to the test scores......The achievement effects of the LSP varied based on student characteristics. African American students experienced significantly less negative impacts of voucher usage after four years relative to non-African American students......The achievement effects of the LSP varied based on the characteristics of the chosen schools. Students whose most-preferred schools were larger, charged higher tuition, and had longer school days experienced more favorable achievement impacts from participating in the LSP relative to their LSP peers who did not list such schools as their first choice. In some cases, test score impacts were positive and statistically significant for students choosing schools with these characteristics.... The effects of the LSP on college enrollment rates were neutral. Students who participated in the LSP in grades 7-12 starting in the fall of 2012 enrolled in college by 2018 at a rate of 60.0 percent compared to a rate of 59.5% for members of the experimental control group. The difference of 0.5 percentage points between the two groups is not statistically significant. The results were similar for students enrolling in 2-year or 4-year colleges.....Students applying to the LSP were disproportionately African American and low-income, compared to non-applicants. No consistent evidence indicates that the LSP is “cream skimming” or “pushing out” students based on their family social status or initial test scores. However, among LSP applicants, students with disabilities are less likely than students without disabilities to use a voucher initially....Moreover, in spite of scoring lower than their control group peers, especially in math, students who participated in the LSP were accepted to and enrolled in college at a rate that was statistically similar to the students who lost their LSP placement lottery. One possible explanation for those divergent results is that private schools in the LSP are teaching students content and skills that help them get accepted to college but are not measured by the state test....."

Patrick J. Wolf, Jonathan N. Mills, Yujie Sude, Heidi H. Erickson and Matthew L. Lee, "How has the Louisiana Scholarship Program Affected Students? A Comprehensive Summary of Effects after Four Years," Louisiana Scholarship Program Evaluation Policy Brief School Choice Demonstration Project," April 24, 2019, http://www.uaedreform.org/wp-content/uploads/LSP4-Policy-Brief-SCDP.pdf

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