Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Japan's 30-year government bond yield remains below Germany's even after rising, despite Japanese government debt of 240% of GDP versus Germany's 65%. The author argues years of Bank of Japan quantitative easing and yield curve control, along with its continued gross purchases of government debt, keep Japanese yields artificially low.

Robin Brooks Robin Brooks Substack
Date Posted:

The Japanese 30-year yield is still below Germany’s, despite Japan’s debt/GDP of 240% relative to Germany’s 65%. The Bank of Japan is currently engaged in a yield control effort to manage rates.

Why are Japan's bond yields lower than Germany's despite far higher debt?

Core argument: Japan's 30-year government bond yield has hit new highs yet remains below Germany's, even though Japanese government debt stands at 240% of GDP versus Germany's 65%.

In recent days, Japan’s 30-year government bond yield has made new highs. The easiest way to see this is in the chart above, which shows Japan’s 30-year yield (white line) together with that for Germany (orange line). Even with the recent sharp rise, Japan’s yield is below Germany, which is nuts given Japan’s debt of 240% of GDP (versus Germany’s 65%). Many years of quantitative easing by the BoJ, as well as yield curve control, mean that Japan’s yields are still artificially low. And of course the BoJ remains a buyer of government debt in gross terms.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Japan's 30-year government bond yield has hit new highs yet remains below Germany's, even though Japanese government debt stands at 240% of GDP versus Germany's 65%.
  2. Years of Bank of Japan quantitative easing and yield curve control have left Japanese government bond yields artificially low, according to the author.
  3. The Bank of Japan remains a buyer of Japanese government debt in gross terms.

Related Articles:

  • Japan Leads Global Long-Bond Drop as Spending Takes Center-Stage — Long-term government bond yields rose in Japan, Germany, the UK and France as concern over widening fiscal deficits dented demand, with 30-year German yields near their highest levels in 14 years. Fiscal worries — including heavy government debt, spending, bond supply and sticky inflation — are displacing central-bank interest-rate policy as the main driver for these markets.
  • Global Debt Report 2025 — About 60% of fixed-rate government debt in advanced economies maturing by 2027 — roughly $9tn — was issued before the recent interest-rate tightening, with weighted average yields below 2% versus projected 10-year rates near 3.6%, implying refinancing at nearly double the original cost. France, Spain, the UK, and the US face heightened vulnerability, with maturing debt exceeding 15% of GDP.
  • Japan’s Debt Trap — Japan's 30-year government bond yield has risen from 2.3% to just under 3.0%, matching Germany's despite Japanese government debt of 240% of GDP versus Germany's 64%. The author argues the Bank of Japan's continued bond purchases hold yields artificially low, and that market-set yields could reach 6–7%.
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